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What really happened in the case of the Great Seattle Windshield Mystery of 1954?

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In early April 1954, car owners in Bellingham, a sleepy dormitory town lying between Seattle and the Canadian border, noticed small, almost imperceptible dents, chips and pitting on their car windscreens. The search for the cause of this phenomena would frustrate authorities so much it caused alarms to be rung in Washington D.C.; and fear and panic to spread across several states.

The residents of Bellingham concluded that local teenage hoodlums were to blame so reported the vandalism to authorities. The police agreed that BB guns or buckshot fired by kids was the likely cause, despite no windscreen-hating teenagers getting caught in the act.

Man showing pitted windshield to police officer, Seattle, 1954
Man showing pitted windshield to police officer, Seattle, 1954. Seattle Post-Intelligencer Collection, Museum of History & Industry, Seattle; All Rights Reserved

The story was picked up by local radio stations and newspapers. Within hours, residents in towns stretching out south along the I-5 Interstate to Seattle began reporting similar damage.

In the morning of 13th April, car owners on an island community in the Puget Sound checked their vehicles and found their windscreens damaged. State troopers and other law enforcement quickly blocked the bridge linking the town to the mainland and conducted searches hoping to catch the culprits, but still nothing was found that could account for the damage.

Further south, nearer Seattle, at Whidbey Island Naval Air Station, 75 US Marines locked-down their base and conducted extensive, but fruitless, searches after discovering several cars in the car park with damaged windscreens.

The state Auto club offered $500 reward in the hunt for whoever or whatever was causing this mysterious damage.

On Whidbey Island itself, after extensive investigation the police chief concluded that “no human agency” could be the cause, instead blaming the recent H-Bomb tests in the Pacific – even running Geiger counters over the scarred windscreens, but with negative results.

At this stage authorities realised two things: this was clearly too big to be the work of a few destructive teenagers; and that whatever was causing it, it was headed for Seattle.

Fear spreads

Two days after the first reports had started in Bellingham, Seattle newspapers and radio stations reported widely on the phenomena approaching their city. The authorities braced for impact. Within hours police were receiving reports of dented windscreens: three cars in a parking lot at 6th Avenue; a windscreen pitted at N 82nd Street; and even damaged police cars parked in front of several precinct buildings across the county. Before long motorists were flagging down police cars to file reports.

The King County sheriff (the county that covers most of Seattle) and his deputies examined 15,000 vehicles and, like the Whidbey Island sheriff, blaming non-human causes, adding that ordinary road use could not account for the scarring.

By the end of April 15th, over 3000 reports had been filed, and still no one knew what to do or what was causing such widespread and sudden damage.

The following day was the peak of the outbreak. The Associated Press reported that the sole topic of conversation in nearby Tacoma was the fact that “thousands of automobiles have windshields marred in some manner by some unknown force”. The Tacoma Police Chief called out the army reserves for a “Round the clock vigil” after his department had received reports of damage to hundreds of cars.

Workers parked at huge Boeing Aircraft factory covered their cars’ windshields with blankets, cardboard, rugs and even shopping bags to protect their pride and joy.

The mayor of Seattle urgently contacted the state authorities and even appealed to President Eisenhower for help:

What appeared to be a localized outbreak of vandalism in damaged auto windshields and windows in the northern part of Washington State has now spread throughout the Puget Sound area. Chemical analysis of mysterious powder adhering to damaged windshields and windows indicates the material may simply be spread by wind and not a police matter at all. Urge appropriate federal (and state) agencies be instructed to cooperate with local authorities on emergency basis.

In the suburb of Anacortes, police officials had placed a sheet of glass on the roof of the station and for two days it remained unblemished. Then miraculously, on the third day, it had two distinct pits. According to Police Chief L. B. Goff, the glass (now marked as exhibit ‘A’) was left to see what developed next.

Science (nearly) intervenes

Authorities were completely baffled. One common trait seemed to be an accumulation of dark particulate matter often embedded in the glass or around the damaged area.

Using the latest scientific techniques, one amateur scientist reported:

I touched a hole with a toothpick and nothing happened. But when I touched it with a lead pencil the particulates around the pockmark jumped away!

Another blamed road salt used the recent bad weather somehow combining with hydrogen to form hydrofluoric acid.

Further weird and outlandish hypotheses were being blamed, including:

  • Cosmic rays from the sun.
  • A nearby 1 million-watt radio transmitter owned by the Navy.
  • A mysterious and previously unknown weather event.
  • Sand-flea eggs. Some people swore blind they had seen the glass bubble and scar in front of their very eyes!
  • Secret Communist Russian experiments on freedom loving ‘Mericans.

It seemed the whole of Puget Sound was caught in some sort of strange and weird phenomena which damaged their car windscreens. The authorities feared panic.

Science Actually Intervenes

Eventually, scientists at the University of Washington were asked to investigate by the state governor. They quickly discovered the particulate matter was in fact coal dust – something that was in the air in most urban areas in the 1950’s. Larger particles were found to be bitumen, likely thrown up from the road surface itself.

The boffins inspected cars in the university car park and found what they could describe as pitting and scarring on many vehicles, but concluded that the damage was “overly emphasized,” and that it was most likely “the result of normal driving conditions in which small objects [such as bitumen and airborne coal dust] strike the windshields of cars.”

The fact that most of the damage occurred in the front windscreen and much more often on older cars, along with the identification of airborne coal dust, lent credence to this simple explanation. This was in the days before the toughened safety glass we have today.

Essentially, because of the media reports, people had started looking at their windscreens instead of through them, and noticed for the first time the damage that had simply built up over normal use.

With a couple of days, the reports stopped as quickly as they had started.

The scare – which happened over just a few days in April 1954 – is a classic tale of mass panic, and is often quoted in psychology texts. As an example, it shows how news and media can create and amplify fears where no legitimate cause exists.

Once the media reported on a few people who had mislabelled normal windscreen wear as something unknown and mysterious, the public began to notice this new and worrisome phenomenon, without stopping to consider if this really was something new. It was easier and more exciting to run with the mystery narrative, rather than stop to look for a much more prosaic and ordinary solution.

Ten top times skepticism made an unexpected appearance in pop culture

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If you ever yearn for a healthy diet of Science and critical thinking then you can always make a pilgrimage to a conference like QED, or find a local Skeptics in the Pub group. There’s also plenty of great content to be consumed online, with fascinating documentaries, excellent YouTube channels, and even some Science-friendly TikTok-ers doing their best to stem the tide of misinformation on the fledgling platform.

As satisfying as all of this is, there’s nothing quite like a random encounter with Skepticism in regular broadcasting. The heart-warming feeling that there’s a writer or performer out there who shares some common values, mixed with the hope that people outside of the choir we normally preach to might be compelled to think more critically forms an exquisite synaptic cocktail.

As with most cocktails though, one never seems quite enough (or is that just me?), so I’d like to invite you to come binge drinking with me as we take a journey through ten tastebud-tingling samples of Skepticism in the wild. Before you imbibe though, please note the rules of my metaphorical drinking game which may have prevented some of your favourite content from making my list: we’re looking at genuine cases where Skepticism has cropped up (at least somewhat) organically here, so shows that are already science-heavy, or run regularly along themes of reason and critical thinking don’t make the cut.

That means no place for the likes of Doctor Who, Star Trek, The Simpsons (although you can get a good Lisa Simpson chaser courtesy of The Skeptic’s own Trevour Sloughter), and skeptics’ favourite kids show Scooby Doo, which regularly ends with the unmasking of a very much alive (and usually greedy) human behind a supposed paranormal threat. We’re also steering clear of the X-Files, and the heated debate about whether Scully qualifies as being a skeptic, due to her continued disbelief in alien visitation and other supernatural phenomena despite multiple direct encounters by the end of the second season.

Ok, so hopefully the preamble above has lined your stomach. Here goes:

10. Parks & Recreation S6E8: Fluoride

With the prospect of access to a neighbouring town’s reservoir, Pawnee is on the cusp of having fluoridated water for the first time in its history. Considering the ongoing controversy over what should be a no-brainer (and minimal-cavity) public health measure such as water fluoridation, it’s refreshing for both the mental and dental health of skeptics to see a positive stance on the show. Of course, being Parks and Recreation, shenanigans ensue: the dark opposing forces of Big-Dentist leverage chemophobia and the naturalistic fallacy (plus our first mention of Jenny McCarthy of the evening) to foment discontent. The response is a masterful piece of re-branding, which we could perhaps consider for the real world (albeit with a little refinement).

9. Jackie Kashian: Empaths

Always witty, but never offensive, Jackie Kashian has been in the stand-up comedy business for over twenty years. A compelling storyteller, her content ranges from day-to-day family and relationship tales, to thornier topics such as sexual harassment and police brutality. In her latest special there are plenty of offenders who catch her critical eye, including some very astute observations about people who believe in ghosts, but the closest she comes to ire is her razor-sharp takedown of so-called ‘empaths’.

8. The West Wing S1E2: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc

Back in the days when portraying the US President as competent and knowledgeable didn’t stretch credulity too far, The West Wing ran for seven seasons, picking up a slew of awards along the way. Skeptic Points are already on the board for naming the entire episode after a logical fallacy, and it doesn’t disappoint as President Bartlet (played to perfection by Martin Sheen) gives his advisors a lesson about faulty thinking.

7. South Park S6 E15: The Biggest Douche in the Universe

At the time of writing, South Park has just celebrated its 25th birthday. First aired in March of 1998 they’ve taken a scattergun approach to plotlines, frequently picking up the talking point du jour and roasting it mercilessly, for better or worse. Occasionally insightful, but not often enough to result in missing the cut in the same way as the Simpsons, their skewering of John Edward is a near-perfect takedown of the celebrity psychic phenomenon.

6. Asterix and the Soothsayer

A cover image of Asterix and the Soothsayer

Many skeptics may be somewhat surprised to see the diminutive Gaul making it on to this list. Not only is there frequent consumption of a ‘magic potion’ which gives his tribe super strength, but there’s also an occasion in Britain of all places when they run out of the aforementioned potion and druid Getafix prepares a fake batch which still appears to work due to the placebo effect (presumably just to annoy Mike Hall).

That being said, Asterix is generally portrayed as a critical thinker who uses brain rather than chemically and/or psychologically enhanced brawn, so when a traveller arrives in the village claiming to be able to see the future, our eponymous hero is the only one not to be taken in by the fakery. Happily, the story does not end well for the Soothsayer, who predictably never saw it coming. There’s even a fittingly brief and satisfyingly unflattering mention of a character called Homeopathix along the way for bonus Skeptic Points.

5. Orange is the new Black S6E4: I’m the Talking Ass

There are many pitfalls to be had when mixing comedy and drama. Firstly, your programme may be described using the horrific portmanteau ‘dramedy’, but more broadly the risk of being accused of trivialising other peoples’ struggles with humour is a constant danger. It does however mean that the juxtaposition between the highs and the lows can be considerably more pronounced, and OITNB was able to tread that line admirably for seven seasons, winning multiple awards and critical acclaim along the way. Set in a women’s prison (in the US), it has helped give a voice to many marginalised demographics in terms of gender, ethnicity, sexuality, and socio-economic status, and highlighted issues such as drug use, sexual violence, and mental illness to name but a few.

All of this contributes towards the ‘Skeptic Factor’ of the program of course, but this particular episode tracks (amongst other plotlines) the continued difficulty of Aleida to make ends meet after her release. Drawing attention to the US Justice system’s focus on punishment rather than rehabilitation, Aleida struggles to find gainful employment due to her criminal record. This results in her falling for a multi-level marketing scheme by the name of ‘Nutri Herbal’, which is different enough from real-life company Herbalife to avoid legal consequences, but close enough for obvious comparisons. The scene showing the back of her car loaded with products which she has had to pay for up front is a telling warning to all.

4. My Little Pony S2E15: The Super Speedy Cider Squeezy 6000

If a news story of a nazi problem in My Little Pony fandom cropped up before 2016 it would have been instantly flagged as satire. Nowadays though that’s sadly not the case. Such are the risks with a kids’ show that’s written in a way to appeal to adults as well, but thankfully the Bronies community is largely benign, and frequently a force for good. A prime example of the clever writing of the show is the introduction of Flim and Flam the salesponies with a dangerously catchy song and dance routine.

Without a doubt the younger viewers will have no idea of the origins of the word Flim-Flam, or the book of the same name from skeptical favourite James Randi, but those of us in the know will love the tip of the hat to the obvious comparisons to travelling Snake-Oil Salesmen. Recurring appearances from the salesponies throughout subsequent seasons all bring fresh attempts to push new but equally useless products to the unsuspecting magical equines.

3. Jim Jefferies: Vaccination

With a career built primarily on themes of misogyny, alcohol consumption, comedic sexual escapades, drug use, and such-like, it has been refreshing to see Jim Jefferies to steer towards more rational topics in recent times. His gun control routine shot him in front of a new audience (although 50% of them didn’t see the funny side), and his tip of the hat to scientists was much appreciated (even though it was very much at the expense of the religious community). The Skeptic Points though are awarded to his routine about getting his son vaccinated, with a bonus takedown of the aforementioned Jenny McCarthy along the way.

2. Time team S8E3: Llygadwy, Wales

The irony of a show presented by Tony Robinson helping to uncover the incompetence of a Baldrick-esque cunning plan to turn some farmland into an archeological wonderland is reason enough to get this on the list, but more notably though, the deviation of format for a long running and successful television show in order to systematically debunk an attempted fraud is a joy to watch. Of course, it’s so British that they softball the confrontation with the landowner’s spokesperson (his son-in-law) at the end of the show, but the damage has already been done by that point. Check out Paul Duncan McGarrity’s excellent article for a blow by blow account of proceedings.

1. Mitchell and Webb: Homeopathic A&E

No real surprise that this hits the list since David Mitchell is currently working his way through a long-term contract to appear as the indignant voice of reason in every single panel show the UK has to offer. The Mitchell and Webb sketch show was notoriously hit and miss, to the point that they parodied it themselves, but there’s no denying the quality when they’re at their best. There’s plenty of Skeptic-friendly material in their work, but the undiluted brilliance of Homeopathic A&E makes it the cream of the crop, and ensures that it rears its head in the comments area any time we broach the subject of the air-guitar of medicine.

This isn’t a ‘top ten’, and even if it was it’s probably not in the right order, so no need to come after me on social media for my omissions and oversights. Please add to the conversation in the comments though as I’m sure there’s plenty more great material out there! Thanks to my friends in the Skeptic community who helped me crowdsource my list. If your suggestion didn’t make it on to my list, it’s not you, it’s me.

Central Bank Digital Currencies, and why conspiracists are urging each other to use cash

On a rainy evening in Liverpool this winter I was handed a leaflet by an earnest middle-aged activist, warning me of the dangers of a cashless society. 

A white leaflet with Bank of England bank note logos in the background. The text reads:

"If we don't use cash NOW we will lose it - resulting in a CASHLESS society.

This Will Mean.....

All your money transactions can be monitored and controlled - by the state.

your access to money can be instantly cut off by the Banks and Government, as seen recently in Canada.

Your bank account will be linked to your digital ID (aka Vaccine Passport) - if we let this happen.

All money will be dependent on electricity and the internet - leaving it vulnerable to cyber-attacks, power cuts and technology failure.

No small gifts for children, donations to the homeless or tips in restaurants - EVERYTHING will be digital.

Is This What You Want?

If Not...Use CASH"

The websites www . Stop New Normal . net and www. Let The UK Live . Com are listed at the bottom of the page.

I followed the links and found that led to the websites of the anti-vax, climate change denying former London mayoral candidate, Piers Corbyn. Piers, who according to his website homepage has 16 Covid arrests (like this one), could be the subject of an article to himself, but I was intrigued by his focus on using cash in this leaflet.

Conspiracy theorists have a long-standing interest in banking, bank notes, fiat currencies and the gold standard. This fixation is currently best embodied by the worries about Central Bank Digital Currencies, which have – like any truly popular conspiracy theory – found their way onto graffiti on motorway bridges in the UK.

A Central Bank Digital Currency – commonly shortened to CBDC – is “a digital currency issued by a central bank, rather than by a commercial bank”, though it should be noted that the concept, as the Wikipedia article quoted above notes, is not well-defined. CBDCs are in use or set to be launched in five territories, including the giant economies of India and Nigeria. A further 80 central banks, including the Bank of England, are considering such a move in the near future. 

Without getting too bogged down in the minutiae, much of what seems to worry people about CBDCs is pretty-well summed up in the above flyer. But what are the actual risks of digital currencies and a cashless society, and are people right to be worried? 

First up – are we, as the leaflet says, headed for a cashless society, whether via CBDCs or otherwise? Sweden has famously been highlighted as heading in that direction for more than a decade, though it has not needed CBDCs to get there, nor has it yet actually become cashless, despite breathless articles claiming that the nation will be cashless by as early as this year. Articles which confusingly note that “consumer payments with cash are less than 20 percent of total transactions.” Twenty percent is, rather famously, a whole lot more than zero.

Nonetheless, it is the case that cash transactions are increasingly rare in Sweden, and many shops and services in Sweden require the use of mobile apps or plastic. For example, it is somewhere between very hard and practically impossible to pay for public transport with cash in Sweden. Clearly a cashless society presents a threat of exclusion for groups such as homeless people, for whom there are significant barriers to opening a bank account.

Some banks do offer bank accounts for people without a fixed address, you can purchase a Big Issue from many vendors with iZettle, and mobile to mobile solutions offer an alternative to banking (for example, 94% of homeless people in the US do own mobile phones), but obviously these all present a greater barrier than plain old notes and coins. 

A cashless society would therefore clearly need to ensure payment services were available to everyone, including the most marginalised groups. While Sweden is touted as heading in that direction – though clearly it is not there yet – might the UK go cashless? No, at least according to the Bank of England:

We know being able to use cash is important for many people. That’s why we will continue to issue it for as long as people want to keep using it.

What of the other worries in this leaflet? Sweden once again acts as an example with regard to small gifts for children: transfers to children (or between any individuals) can be made by Swish, an almost ubiquitous mobile payment app in Sweden.

As for tipping, we need not look any further than the UK for this; many dining establishments already offer tipping via card, or when paying remotely using the restaurant’s mobile app. Have Piers and his mates been to a restaurant recently?

It is true that digital money is vulnerable to electricity outages and cyber-attacks… but this is already true of our current system, and it has been for a very long time. In the UK, we may only have seen cash fall behind debit cards in terms of transaction volumes relatively recently, in 2017, but how many decades has it been since the average pay cheque was an envelope containing an actual cheque or hard cash, rather than a bank transfer? How many people buy high-value items like white goods or electronics with cash, never mind a car or a house?

We have been vulnerable to cataclysmic cyber-attacks and technology failure for years, so unless Piers Corbyn is advocating bundling a large percentage of your money under your mattress, you’re unlikely to have enough cash to make a difference if the banking system does go down. And if the banking system goes down quite that comprehensively and permanently, we are probably in a sufficiently apocalyptic situation that we will have a lot more to worry about than paper money, which is also – lest our cash advocates forget – just an agreed-upon means of exchange with no inherent worth. Unless the authors of this leaflet think we all have enough wealth to store bags of Krugerrands under our floorboards, and, presumably, the means to defend our hoard when this digitally-enabled apocalypse arrives.

Regarding their concerns that bank accounts will be linked with digital ID and vaccine passports, my first reaction is surprise that there are still people banging on about vaccine passports. Very few countries still require vaccination for entry, and the few that do are now thinking again. The requirement for UK residents to verify their vaccination status to access services has also effectively vanished. Why do conspiracy theorists think they got this right?

While the UK government is apparently looking at digital ID – and the UK has historically gone a very different route from most developed countries on identity cards – the idea that your identity doesn’t already need to be verified to access banking is absurd. Here in the UK, in order to deter money laundering, banks are required by law to verify a potential customers’ identity, in order to comply with Know your Customer (KYC) regulations. This is to make sure that terrorists and criminals cannot use financial services to move around money and make it harder to trace.

This is not new in the UK: I can find references on know-your-customer rules for banks going back at least as far as the Money Laundering Regulations 1993.

Most of us are against money laundering to fund criminal activity, but what about the claims that the state could cut off our money, and that all of our transactions could be being monitored and controlled by the state?

The leaflet’s reference to Canada is presumably referring to the freezing of donations to support anti-vax truckers in Canada in the so-called “Freedom Convoy” protests in early 2022. The Canadian government did indeed freeze funds donated to protestors, and even the accounts of donors, which is obviously a pretty sinister move, and probably crosses a line even for those of us who disagree vehemently with the anti-vax protestors. However, this was done by court order and the Emergency Powers Act, so was all possible with any standard bank account linked into modern payment and transactions systems. The only option cash would have given is if the geographically-dispersed donors had stuffed notes into envelopes and sent it to the protestors in the post, which has not been a recommended way to send money… ever, as far as I’m aware.

As for the state monitoring and controlling our finances more generally, this comes back to concerns around Central Bank Digital Currencies. While there are many claimed benefits to CBDCs – financial inclusion by allowing all citizens a bank account; reducing or eliminating transaction fees; combating tax evasion and crime – there are several risks around privacy and surveillance that could cause concern.

In theory, a digital currency could make population surveillance more straightforward, and it has been suggested that citizens who do undesirable things could find their accounts cut off, and that certain behaviour – such as purchasing alcohol or pornography, or donating to an anti-government NGO or opposition political party – could be banned or lead to other state-imposed sanctions on your personal freedoms or finances.

Advocates suggest that CBDCs actually offer better protection for users, as China’s digital RMB – for example – will offer near-field transactions for lower-value amounts that do not involve an internet connection at all. Other nations are already looking at data protection and privacy for digital currency, including the USA and the UK.

We may not give governments much credence for such claimed protections, and it is not hard to imagine the authorities using the features of digital currencies for insidious purposes. However, so much of what is feared is already possible without digital currency: Russia closed down the bank accounts of anti-government opposition figures years ago; Sweden, Finland and Norway all restrict the sale of high-alcohol drinks through government-run monopolies; religious groups are already successfully campaigning to stop financial providers working with sex-related businesses.

If you’re in a country where the law already requires warrants or other legal authorisation for the state to go snooping on your private information such as your financial transactions, that’s likely to be the case with digital currency, whatever form it takes. Some have argued that the individual protections from such surveillance are not strong enough in countries like the UK, where examples of overreach range from exposing journalists’ sources to the use of powers to investigate petty matters like fly-tipping, but again these are already a problem under current legislation.

Central Bank Digital Currencies are a tool. What matters are the political decisions taken in their implementation, and the drafting of hopefully sensible laws to govern their use. Whether our politicians and such laws are up to the task is of course up for debate.

While CBDCs could absolutely be used for oppressive purposes, so can (and are) the regular financial and legal systems we’ve been part of for decades. Declining to tip on your debit card and insisting on leaving a sweaty pile of coins on the table in the restaurant isn’t going to change that, but diligent electoral scrutiny can potentially moderate it.

Do dreams sometimes replay repressed memories of trauma experienced long ago?

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In a previous article for the Skeptic, I referred to the fact that I sometimes act as an expert witness in cases where allegations of non-recent sexual abuse may potentially be based upon false memories. This is a very small minority of sexual abuse cases and, even then, in about half of the cases that I have dealt with I have concluded that there were no obvious indications in the evidence that I had seen to indicate a heightened probability that this was indeed the case. Every case is different and sometimes a case will raise questions that I cannot answer without a deep dive into the scientific literature. In this article, I want to discuss one such case.

Without going into details, suffice it to say that the complainant, whom I shall refer to as C, alleged at the age of 40 that he had been sexually abused in various ways by the accused, whom I shall refer to as A, when C was between the ages of 8 and 16 years. As an adult, C had recurrent dreams of being sexually abused as a child. The evidence suggested that he had then recovered memories of being so abused at the hands of the accused. The evidence suggested that C believed his nightmares about being sexually abused as a child indicated that he had actually been thus abused, and had repressed those traumatic memories. The idea that repressed traumatic memories might surface in dreams is a common one and one that often features in works of fiction. But is it true?

Much has been written regarding the relationship between memory and dreams, and a comprehensive review of the topic is not possible in this short article. Instead, I will focus upon what I felt were the central questions to be addressed. To start with, I wanted to know: are details of everyday real-life events sometimes replayed during dreams?

There is strong evidence for the idea that details from recent events in waking life are sometimes incorporated into our dreams, indicating that dreams may in some way be involved in consolidation of memories. This effect is strongest two nights after the events in question with a second peak 5-7 days after the events. It should be noted that we are referring here to recent events in the dreamer’s life, not to events from decades earlier. Furthermore, the dreams are not accurate replays of whole episodes. Instead, they simply incorporate elements from the individual’s waking life. For example, Fosse and colleagues (2003) reported that 65% of 299 dream reports from 29 people over a period of a fortnight incorporated some details from recent waking life but only 1-2% preserved the original characters, actions, objects, and setting of the original scene.

Some theorists claim that memory for trauma involves different psychological and neuropsychological mechanisms than memory for non-traumatic events. For example, it is claimed that those suffering from posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) really do experience accurate replays of the trauma they experienced in both their recurrent nightmares and their waking “flashbacks”. Van der Kolk and colleagues (1984) reported that eleven of fifteen Vietnam veterans with PTSD reported dreams that were exact replays of the trauma they had experienced during combat. Schrueder, Kleijn, and Rooijmans (2000) reported that 42% of 102 World War II survivors reported accurate replays, albeit that 35% reported experiencing distorted versions of the original trauma. A major limitation of these studies is that they were based upon nothing more than self-report, without asking sufferers to prospectively record their dreams.

However, even studies using an improved methodology that involved getting PTSD sufferers to keep dream diaries for a period and to then assess their entries supported the claim that a minority of PTSD sufferers do indeed report nightmares that they believe replicate actual traumatic events. For example, Mellman and colleagues (2001) had 60 patients, hospitalised as a result of assault or life-threatening accidents, record their dreams during their initial stay in hospital. Eighteen patients reported a total of 21 dreams, of which ten were trauma-related; six were reported as exact replays, four as distorted versions.

It is worth pausing at this point to reflect upon what would be required if PTSD nightmares and flashbacks really were an accurate and exact replaying of the original trauma. This would require that memory worked like a video camera, accurately recording every detail of an experience so that they could be “replayed” later. Although this view of memory is held by a very large proportion of the general public, it is totally incorrect. We typically remember the gist and central details of experiences, and forget the vast majority of the specific details. Thus, it is simply impossible for any nightmares or flashbacks to really be exact replays even though the sufferer may sincerely believe that they are. When a person compares their memory of the original event to their memory of a dream of that event, they are inevitably comparing one unreliable reconstruction with another.

With respect to this specific case, it should also be noted that PTSD sufferers do not, in the absence of physical brain injury, experience any period of amnesia for the events that caused the PTSD. On the contrary, they have great difficulty in keeping the traumatic memories out of consciousness. This observation is itself evidence against the classical psychoanalytic notion of repression; that is, the idea that traumatic memories will tend to be automatically pushed into a non-conscious part of the mind, from whence they could not be retrieved no matter how strong the memory cue. In fact, as discussed in a previous article, there is little, if any, evidence to support the existence of repression, despite it being an idea that is widely accepted by both members of the general public and a range of relevant professional groups.

There is more than one way in which dreams may result in false memories. The most obvious and direct route is that which involves a person mistaking the events that they experienced within a dream for events that took place in objective reality. This would be an example of what psychologists refer to as a reality monitoring error. Reality monitoring refers to the psychological processes that allow us to distinguish between events taking place in objective reality and those taking place solely within our minds, such as dreams, fantasy, and hallucinations. Rassin and colleagues (2001) collected data from two samples of respondents (N = 85 and 255, respectively) and found that,

a nontrivial minority of respondents (11.8% and 25.9%, respectively) reported that they had had the experience of not being able to discriminate between dream and reality.

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However, in this particular case it was clear that A was always aware when he awoke from his nightmares that he had indeed been dreaming. He subsequently correctly recalled such dreams as being dreams. How then could he have ended up “recovering” detailed false memories of actually being abused? One plausible route is that of imagination inflation. When people repeatedly imagine events which they initially believe they have never actually experienced, this can lead them to subsequently believe that they did indeed experience those events. In some cases, they may also end up with detailed false memories of the events.

This is again an example of a reality monitoring error. In this case, they are confusing events that they have merely imagined with events that have really taken place. Given that C assumed that his dreams of being abused as a child were a possible indication that he really had been, it is natural that he may have imagined various scenarios in which such abuse might have occurred, potentially ultimately resulting in false memories of such abuse.

In this case, as in all such cases, in the absence of independent evidence we cannot know for sure if C’s allegations are true, deliberate lies, or sincere but mistaken. In our adversarial legal system, justice requires that members of a jury make their decision regarding guilt or innocence in the context of a full understanding of relevant factors that can affect human memory.

Are at-home blood tests a medical innovation, or a solution trying to sell consumers a problem?

The more information the better, right? Actually, it depends on what we are talking about. When we talk about health, for instance, this assumption isn’t always true.

Although many of us would like to know everything about our condition, not all information is equally accurate and useful. An investigation by the BMJ revealed that in the UK there are a lot of companies that offer blood tests to find out how many healthy years you might have left, or to measure one’s cholesterol level, kidney or liver function, thyroid hormones, vitamins deficiency or sleep problems. All of this comes from just a finger-prick blood sample.

These companies sell kits to use at home: a do-it-yourself service accessible to anyone who can afford it. For less than £200 (the cheapest test can be found for less than £100) you can get an overview of your health condition.

There is a growing market for these products: the whole blood testing industry was worth around $80.50 billion in 2021 and is estimated to grow to $128.45 billion by 2028.

In this way there is an inversion of the diagnostic process: instead of going to a GP, having an examination and then carrying out some tests to confirm the diagnosis, people access tests first, on the basis of generic symptoms – without having the tools to interpret the outcomes (usually the results merely feature asterisks next to abnormal numbers). People can also see these tests online or on television, while medicines can’t be advertised directly to consumers.

Furthermore, as a panel of expert said in an opinion article for the BMJ, there is a problem with the reliability of these tests: the accuracy is 95%, which means that for every 100 tests, 5 results, by chance, will be abnormal even if people are perfectly healthy. When you test a lot of biomarkers in thousands of people, the probability of false positive results increases.

Most importantly, the NHS is effectively paying the cost of these tests: when a patient gets an inaccurate outcome, they go to their GP, creating a double problem. On the one hand the doctor hadn’t prescribed the tests, and probably won’t be able to manage them. On the other hand, they are likely to recommend other blood tests to review the results, overloading NHS care.

In 2019, the Royal College of General Practitioners published a position statement about screening, saying that:

many of the private clinics pass back results to the NHS, often via general practice, to be assessed and followed up. Some private companies even recommend that customers routinely discuss their results with their NHS GPs. This can be an inappropriate use of NHS resources and can have a potentially significant negative impact on primary care.

In general, experts notice that there is a problem of appropriateness: a person without any symptoms shouldn’t undergo screening unless recommended. National guidelines, for instance, suggest a prostate cancer risk test for all men over-50, who are not experiencing any symptoms. The screening should be preceded by a discussion with a GP – yet, there are a lot of private tests available at any age which don’t need any prescription.

Home tests aren’t new: since 2006, Californian company 23andMe has been promising to identify a customer’s ancestry and genetic predispositions from a saliva sample. In 2008, 23andMe was nominated Invention of the Year by Time magazine, and in 2017 they received FDA authorisation to tell consumers their risks of developing ten medical conditions, including Parkinson’s disease and late-onset Alzheimer’s disease. Years later, the company also obtained the permission – with special control – to offer a test that reports three mutations in the BRCA cancer genes.

The company quickly amassed a huge database, which led to pharmaceutical companies expressing interest in partnerships. In 2018, GSK signed an agreement for personalised drug discovery (it will expire next July).

Less successful is the story of Theranos, a biomedical startup based in California. Launched in 2003, the company offered a new technology to analyse blood tests, using a single drop of blood. Theranos got into trouble in 2015, when an investigation by The Wall Street Journal found out that the so-called technology simply didn’t work: a drop of blood wasn’t enough to detect viruses as they claimed.

The founder, Elizabeth Holmes, and the former president Sunny Balwani, were charged with fraud. Holmes was just 19 years old when she founded the company. In addition to lying to investors, the two put the lives of thousands of patients at risk by providing them with inaccurate and incorrect results. Holmes said her dream was to “change health care as we know it”, but she failed.

The verdict came from the jury at the beginning of January 2022: she was found guilty and was sentenced to over 11 years’ imprisonment.

In their article for the BMJ, the expert committee concluded:

People have a right to spend their money how they wish, but regulators should protect the public from unfair practices. The NHS needs to explain robustly the criteria for high quality screening and testing and to explain to consumers when they should be sceptical and what they should question.

Who knows whether the health system will have the strength to do so.

Rumford Place: the Liverpool monument still celebrating slavery and the US confederacy

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What if I told you there was a monument to slavery and white supremacy in the heart of an English city? That’s just what you’ll find if you visit Rumford Place, an unassuming street off Liverpool’s Old Hall Street. Each building is named after a place or person from the former Confederate States of America, and there are a couple of plaques commemorating fallen soldiers and a warship.

The site is linked to Liverpool’s long and shameful associated with the transatlantic slave trade. From around 1700, cargo ships laden with trade goods would leave Liverpool’s docks, bound for West Africa. They would trade the goods for enslaved people, who would endure terrible conditions as they were taken to the New World. After selling their “goods” in lands such as Barbados, Jamaica or the thirteen colonies that would go on to become the USA, the traders would then load up with stock to sell back in Europe. Sugar, cotton and tobacco all commanded high prices. Each triangular journey was hugely profitable, leading to the growth of the port of Liverpool in the 18th century.

In North America, enslaved people were forced to work on farms and plantations. Following the American War of Independence, slavery was picked apart little by little in the North, whereas in the South it continued as a key part of the agricultural economy. Cotton in particular proved particularly lucrative, with vast amounts of it being exported to North West England, where it would be received at the port of Liverpool before being processed in the cotton mills of Lancashire.

The issue of slavery drove a wedge between the free states in the North and the slave states in the South. The election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860, who wasn’t even on the ballot in ten of the slave states, was the final straw for many Southerners. Throughout early 1861, Southern states announced that they were seceding from the Union, and soldiers loyal to their states began to seize forts from federal troops. In February, seven of the Southern states formed the Confederate States of America and inaugurated Jefferson Davies as their president.

From the start, the Confederacy made their intentions on slavery clear. Their constitution was largely a copy and paste job of the US one, with several key differences. For example, Article I Section 9(4) states:

No bill of attainder, ex post facto law, or law denying or impairing the right of property in negro slaves shall be passed.

If that wasn’t enough to convince people how dear the institution of slavery was to the Confederates, the Confederate Vice President Alexander H Stephens on March 21st:

Our new government[‘s]…foundations are laid, its cornerstone rests upon the great truth, that the negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery—subordination to the superior race—is his natural and normal condition.

As well as defending slavery, the Confederacy also adopted their first flag, known as the Stars and Bars.

The Stars and Bars flag - three stripes (red, white, red) with a blue square in the top left corner with 7 white stars arranged in a circle.

With the Confederate attack on Fort Sumter, Charleston on April 12th 1861, the American Civil War was underway. Confederate armies fought under their own flags, the most popular one being the battle flag of the army of Northern Virginia.

a red flag with a blue X over it, 13 white stars running down each part of the X

Once the Confederates realised that their Stars and Bars was too similar to the Union Stars and Stripes, they looked for a replacement. They took the popular battle flag and placed it in the canton of a white field to create the Stainless Banner. Why white? To represent the superiority of the white race. In the words of Savannah Daily Morning News editor William Tappan Thompson:

As a people, we are fighting to maintain the heaven ordained supremacy of the white man over the inferior or colored race: a white flag would thus be emblematical of our cause.

The stainless banner: a white flag with a red square in the top left corner. The red square has a blue X over the top with 13 white stars arranged over it.

However, the Stainless Banner proved problematic, as they were marching into battle with a flag that was mostly white, giving the impression that they were surrendering. To fix this problem, they took the Stainless Banner and shoved a red stripe on the end, creating the Blood Stained Banner.

The blood stained banner: the stainless banner with a red stripe running down the right hand side.

Liverpool and the Confederacy

But what was Liverpool’s role in all this? It’s easy to think of the American Civil War as something that happened “over there” but it had huge ramifications for British industry. The Union navy blockaded Confederate ports, meaning that the cotton that the economy of the North West of England relied on couldn’t get through. The cotton factories ceased to function, causing immense hardship in what was known as the “Cotton Famine”. Although Britain was officially neutral in the conflict, the Confederacy had a lot of sympathy in Liverpool. In 1864 and with the Confederacy struggling in the war, Liverpool held the “Southern Bazaar” in Saint George’s Hall, raising over £20,000 for the cause.

Once the war was over, the historical revisionism started almost immediately. The “Lost Cause” myth was perpetuated, claiming that the South’s cause was noble and that the war wasn’t about slavery. Monuments to confederates sprang up, and over time films and books emerged that played down the evils of slavery and romanticised the Southern lifestyle, most notably 1939’s Gone With The Wind. 1979 saw the release of the TV series The Dukes of Hazzard. The show featured a car called the General Lee, which sported a confederate battle flag on its roof.

All this revisionism has had an effect on the American perception of the war. A 2011 survey carried out by the Pew Research Center asked Americans what the primary cause of the civil war was. 48% said it was mostly about states’ rights, whereas only 38% gave the correct answer, saying it was mostly about slavery.

Although Confederate symbols such as the battle flag can be seen at far-right rallies in the USA, they are seldom seen elsewhere. In Italy, football fans in the south of the country sometimes fly the battle flag, simply because they are in “the South” and have a rivalry with “the North”. However, there exists a substantial number of plaques and even buildings dedicated to the Confederacy at Liverpool’s Rumford Place.

The Rumford Place plaques

Rumford Place isn’t exactly on the well-beaten tourist trail, but it’s a stone’s throw from Moorfields train station and easy to find when you know where to look. The first thing you are greeted by is a sign featuring three portraits.

The sign with three portraits for Rumford Place as described in the main text.

Source: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/41/Sign_at_Rumford_Place.jpg/1184px-Sign_at_Rumford_Place.jpg

The sign features the flag of South Carolina on the left, the first version of the Stars and Bars on the right, and three portraits. The president is Jefferson Davis, the first and only president of the Confederacy. The agent is James Dunwoody Bulloch, the man the Confederacy sent to Liverpool to procure warships for the Confederate navy. The master is Raphael Semmes, captain of the CSS Alabama, a Confederate commerce raider.

The street also features a couple of memorial plaques, one dedicated to the memory of all that fought on the CSS Shenandoah, another commerce raider.

The plaque in commemoration of the shenandoah as described in the main text

Not only is it strange to describe those who largely attacked unarmed whaling ships as “brave”, it’s also worth noting the flags on this plaque. It features the British Union Flag and the American Stars and Stripes, it also has the Confederate Stainless Banner, the one that’s mostly white to represent the superiority of the white race. One thing it fails to mention about the Shenandoah is that it saw the last action of the war in Liverpool on November 6th 1865. Unaware that the war was over, it continued to attack merchant ships. Realising that they were now little more than pirates, they decided that it was best to stow their guns and surrender.

Each house in Rumford Place is named after something to do with the Confederacy, but the most interesting one is Enrica house.

The enrica house plaque as described in the main text

Note that it doesn’t feature a Confederate flag, but the flag of the British merchant navy. Over on the other side of the Wirral, a ship called the Enrica was built at Birkenhead. It sailed under the flag of the British merchant navy to the Azores, where it was refitted as a warship, given confederate flags, and renamed the CSS Alabama. The plaque therefore celebrates the violation of the laws on neutrality so that the Confederates could get their hands on another commerce raider.

You may be thinking that these plaques have been around for some time. However, one of the plaques states that it was a gift from the great granddaughter of James Dunwoody Bulloch and unveiled in 2010. The plaque with the Stainless Banner was given for the 150th anniversary of the surrender of the Shenandoah in 2015.

So what can be done? Here is my proposal: a few streets away from Rumford Place is the International Slavery Museum, Liverpool’s attempt to come to terms with its unpleasant past. It’s there for education, so why not move all the plaques from Rumford Place there to create a new exhibit? Then we can rename all the buildings in Rumford Place to honour the real heroes of the American Civil War, people like Harriet Tubbman, Robert Smalls and Frederick Douglass, to name but a few.

Monuments to slavery and white supremacy should have no place in our cities, and it’s time we did something about them.

The “purebloods”: how the unvaccinated came to see themselves as superior

As I write this, I realise that my existence is impossible for a section of the world; I have taken all four shots of the vaccine, I am alive and healthy, and so far, no massive blood clots have been found anywhere inside me.

When Covid started, the Anti-Vax community found excuses to avoid taking any vaccine: they said that it was experimental, that it was part of the Chinese bio-weapon plan, that it would make you magnetic, that it would be used to track your whereabouts, and so on. Then everything became part of a mega conspiracy, as “evidently” showed in the antivaxx propaganda films Plandemic 1 and 2, which alleged that the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr Anthony Fauci, created Covid and developed a vaccine in order to make money, or possibly to kill everybody and cleanse humanity as part of an Illuminati plot.

I don’t want to delve into all the vaccine conspiracies here – other folks have already done that. Snopes, for example, has a pretty good catalogue of debunking fake vaccine news. Instead, I want to deal with the aftermath of the vaccines, once they were out; people got their vaccine, pandemic restrictions were reducing, and the folks who were able to began moving on with their lives. This is perhaps not the appropriate course of action in a pandemic – just because you are immunised, it doesn’t mean that the whole crisis is immediately over – but it is what happened. 

While the vaccinated went back to their lives, what of the antivaxxers? They needed a new way to distinguish themselves from the rest of society – something more positive than the inherently-negative term ‘antivax’. Thus, they embraced the term “Pureblood”.

A cartoon of a family - mother, father and two children - hurrying down a pathway from through the "covid vaccinated" you are laying on the floor with syringes around them. Shining on the family ("purebloods") is a ray of light with the word "health". The father is saying "we tried to warn you but you wouldn't listen".

Among antivax circles and conspiracy groups, reports circulated claiming that the ‘pure’ ones who refused the vaccine were all remaining healthy, while those who took the vaccine died. What proof did they have that vaccinated people were dying in great number? Viral videos, which showed people collapsing, or dying suddenly. How, asked the ‘Purebloods’, could such healthy young folk die like that? It must be because of vaccines.

Except, the videos, of course, don’t actually show what is claimed. The videos don’t explain whether the subject died because of the vaccine, or because of some other condition they had – or whether they even died at all. Many of the case studies of so-called “Vaccine Victims” include people who went on to make a full recovery, or who (as in the case of nurse Tiffany Dover, from one popular viral video) were never seriously ill in the first place.

Plus, the reality is that, sadly, death is a certainty in life: even if the chances of someone dying as a result of an intervention are extremely low, once you multiple that by eight billion humans, it’s always going to be possible to cherry pick the rare examples to build your antivax, Pureblood conspiracy. Without the context to tell us what actually happened to the people who are the subject of all the claims and videos, it’s impossible for to know whether they really were injured by the vaccine. And, with over 13 billion doses of the vaccine given so far, I doubt that it really is the cause of widespread injuries and deaths.

Still, the myth of Pureblood is fascinating, for a combination of extraordinary factors: the notion that the human body is a temple, and that a vaccine will not only enter but will pierce and penetrate the body. How very Freudian. Plus, according to various claims made by the Purebloods, as it enters and corrupts, it changes your DNA, or makes you become a giant magnet, or (as some extreme claims would have it) even makes you a transmitter for 4G or 5G… but, crucially, they say, it doesn’t actually stop Covid. So the only sensible solution is simply not to take it – and in doing so become, according to them, possessor of the most prized commodity on the planet.

Two syringes apparently filled with blood. One is labelled "not vaccinated" and is red. The other is labelled "vaccinated" and is black. Next to the black syringe is the label "black and thick, depleted of hemoglobin"

According to some who believe in the Pureblood myth, unvaccinated blood will become incredibly valuable, because it would be full of oxygen and haemoglobin, while the vaccinated would be sick, clumpy, and full of clots. 

The sad thing is, believing this conspiracy theory can have serious consequences, as in the case of a six month old baby in New Zealand whose parents initially refused to consent to life-saving heart surgery, unless the doctors could guarantee that any blood transfusions came from unvaccinated donors. Thankfully, eventually, the surgery went ahead, after intervention from the courts.

What happens when the predicted tsunami of deaths among vaccinated people fails to materialise? Believers in the Pureblood notion will simply double-down – in fact, we have already seen the narrative begin to switch, with claims that the ‘deep state and big pharma’ are hiding all news of the billions who have dead.

And how to explain that the excess deaths were more pronounced among unvaccinated people? The narrative became that vaccinated people were shedding proteins that made unvaccinated people sick. This story could then be used to explain why people were still dying of Covid, as well as reinforcing the persecution complex among antivaxxers.

What can we take from this pureblood narrative? That the persecution complex of the antivax community has only deepened, and they are now able to see themselves as special for refusing to accept a vaccine, yet they believe they are dying because of the careless decisions of others – pure projection. At the same time, we see the familiar old narratives of the body being corrupted by an outsider, a truly ancient fear.

Critical thinking is trending, so why doesn’t it seem like it’s helping?

At the time this article was written, #criticalthinking was used 100 times on Twitter in the previous 24 hours. It had the potential to reach almost half a million users. So if the concept of critical thinking is so popular, why aren’t we making any progress toward general consensus on controversial subjects?

Part of the answer lies in these two tweets:

Anonymous Twitter user, replying to @seanhannity

If @realDonaldTrump doesn't get back on #Twitter soon, he'll lost the ability to bring Americans from all walks and political persuasions together. #CriticalThinking

Nov 23, 2022
Another anonymous Twitter user

The MAGA crowd has continued to flourish because they don't take the time to educate themselves. Ohhh all the articles I have posted that go unopened. (facepalm emoji). I think they're capable of critical thinking, they just choose to stay ignorant which makes them even bigger dumbasses. #MAGA

Jan 3, 2022

Clearly the two tweets both suggest critical thinking is the solution to the problem, but from the opposite sides of the argument. How is it that we all claim to be implementing critical thinking and we are all coming to different conclusions?

The answer is that our cognitive biases interfere with our ability to be truly critical in our thinking. This is not a new concept. Without looking too hard, we can find examples of this in modern literature, recent psychological publications and neurological research. So, what do we do? Throw up our hands and accept that we are destined to disagree? Allow every debate to devolve into a fist fight? Swear off of holidays with the family?

That would be the easy solution, but if our goal is to attempt to achieve some sort of consensus, then I suggest that we adopt a more challenging strategy. First, we alter our approach to changing people’s minds. That one is much easier than the second aspect of the strategy which is to look honestly at our own perspectives.

In order to change people’s minds, facts are not as helpful as you might think. More important than the content of what you say is how you say it. If you have heard Megan Phelps Roper talk about her time with the hate-group the Westboro Baptist Church, she describes their confrontational approach as based on the idea that if they present their truth, God will soften people’s hearts. To them, it does not matter how offensive or insulting they may be; once the idea is presented, the rest is up to God. I feel that many of us approach conversations the same way: my job is to lay the facts at my opponent’s feet and then they will see the error of their ways and agree that my perspective is the correct one. Of course, that rarely happens.

When we use aggressive language, when it is obvious that we are not listening to the other person, and when we are dismissive or don’t address their ideas, the other person responds by shutting down or adopting a defensive stance. Either way, they don’t hear our perspective, no matter how well-crafted our argument or how accurate our facts may be.

But what if they are wrong and I am right? It doesn’t matter. No matter how wrong they may be, their mind will not change with a simple presentation of facts. Instead of treating the conversation like a battle to be won, treat it like a conversation. In a conversation we share ideas and there is a back-and-forth. Listen – actually listen – to their perspective. Find points that you can agree with (no matter how difficult it may be). Rephrase and repeat their assertions. Be gracious and polite, as if you are concerned for the other person’s feelings.

Don’t try and change their mind; instead make your goal that they walk away with some piece of information they did not previously have, so that they can consider it at their own pace and convenience. Don’t interrupt them, allow them to feel that they are heard. Don’t belittle or demean either them or their talking points. Don’t make the conversation feel like an interrogation.

A mem from The Simpsons - Principal Skinner says "Am I stubborn and close-minded?" then "No, it must be everyone that disagrees with me".

The second point of attempting to achieve some consensus is to look at our own beliefs. This is significantly more difficult than changing someone else’s mind, because the easiest person to fool is ourselves. The first step is to honestly consider why we hold the beliefs that we do. Is it because we had all the various perspectives laid out before us in an orderly and systematic fashion, and we chose the one that contained the most consistent and rational arguments? Or is the reason we hold a belief something more trivial? Do we hold the belief because it was the first one that was presented to us? Because it came along at a time when we were receptive to new ideas? Because someone we admire holds the same belief? Rarely is it the case that we held one belief, and someone debated us out of our position and into theirs.

Being wrong is emotionally debilitating and so we are hardwired to avoid that sensation, especially when there is someone to witness our acknowledgement of erroneous belief. Changing of minds typically occurs when our attention is elsewhere. One moment we are adherents to one belief and the next moment we notice that our opinion has shifted to a different point of view. When that happens, we often congratulate ourselves on our open-mindedness and willingness to adopt new opinions, but in reality the shift happened beyond our conscious mind, and so it could be argued that we deserve none of the credit.

Consider one of the perspectives that you have on a topic that is contentious, and not yet settled. How well do you actually understand the issue? Why do you hold that position? What would it take to change your mind? The last question is particularly insightful into how tightly we hold onto our beliefs.

Take, for example, the origins of COVID-19, and ask those three previous questions of yourself. Would it take an admission of guilt from a high-ranking health official, or an official acknowledgement of involvement from the Chinese government? Would you be willing to adjust your opinion if there were significant information that contradicted the official account? Perform the same exercise with the question of fraud in the 2020 US Presidential election. Consider another issue that is particularly contentious in your life and, as I said previously, pay particular attention to the third question: what would it take to change your mind?

If an acquaintance casually mentions an opinion that contradicts your own, do you immediately dismiss it, or do you ask them to elaborate so that you can consider the validity of the opinion? When a report comes to light that questions the integrity of your trusted source, do you immediately dismiss it or look for confirmation?

The human species is wired to create an “us” and a “them.” This strategy has ensured our survival, yet it is also the cause of nearly all of our conflicts. In times of peace, we are unable to turn off the instinct towards tribalism, and so we must develop internal mechanisms that will override that instinct. Without the overrides, everyone who agrees with us is our friend, and everyone else is our enemy, and we will never achieve any sort of consensus.