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The AllatRa Creative Society: from global peace promises to a real security threat

Have you ever stumbled on a slick YouTube video predicting the end of “consumerist civilisation” and inviting you to join a Creative Society that will, by 2036, abolish hunger, debt and taxes? Congratulations; you’ve just knocked on AllatRa’s door.

The AllatRa movement began in Ukraine in 2014, as a publisher for the esoteric books of the supposed author Anastasia Novykh. Those books introduce a messianic figure called Nomo whose biography looks suspiciously like Vladimir Putin’s. The man the books revolve around is Igor Danilov, once a coal miner and back‑street chiropractor, whom followers describe as a “higher‑level being”.

Outwardly AllatRa calls itself a volunteer “platform that transcends politics and religion”. Look a little deeper and you’ll find it boasts “millions” of members and lists its head office in Atlanta, Georgia – a handy state for registering non‑profits with minimal scrutiny of their finances.

Despite the Atlanta address, AllatRa’s corporate web stretches from Cyprus and Czechia to Belize. Investigative journalists at Slidstvo.info mapped at least 21 entities, including offshore companies, tied to the group.

That spider web lets AllatRa look “poor and volunteer‑run” in one country while holding hard assets in another. The same investigation uncovered a long‑running crowdfunding drive that, between 2014 and 2021 alone, pulled in almost ₴7.5 million (about US $200,000).

For years the movement claimed it had “no bank accounts and no profits”. Yet a 2024 US‑FARA filing by lobbyist Allen Egon Cholakian lists an annual AllatRa PR budget of $150,000 and gives Cholakian’s own fee as $8,000.

Extra cash flows in from Novykh book sales, merch and “business partners” – some under sanctions or insolvency. Offshore firms in Cyprus and Belize help muddy the trail. Slidstvo’s reporters asked the leadership why a “purely volunteer” project needs shell companies; they’re still waiting for an answer.

Helping along the “Nazis‑in‑Ukraine” myth

“Ukraine is ruled by Nazis; it must be denazified.” The Kremlin rolled out that line on 24 February 2022 – and AllatRa echoed it within hours. Ukraine’s security service (SBU) later raided more than 20 local AllatRa cells and seized material calling for missile strikes on western Ukraine and the creation of a “Union of Slavic Peoples” led from Moscow.

So, a group that markets pacifism is recycling Kremlin war‑justification narratives in spiritual wrapping. Their videos still talk of the “fascist Kyiv regime” and “Slavic brotherly love,” blithely ignoring the fact that Ukraine has a democratically elected Jewish president and the far-right polls at the margins.

AllatRa’s PR says it is a “helpful, apolitical platform”. But in SBU‑seized documents, AllatRa outlines their three‑step roadmap: (1) viral content blitz; (2) founding political parties; (3) a global referendum to replace current systems with AllatRa’s “creative” model.

The same files describe a “scientific climate forum”. In reality, AllatRa denies human‑driven warming and warns that a rupture of the Mariana Trench will destroy Earth in 2036 – unless, of course, humanity adopts the Creative Society. Fear is harvested, then channelled into a political offer.

The law on the side of AllatRa

In October 2024 Slovak prosecutor Lucia Pavlaninová opened a criminal case against reporter Kristina Ciroková of Czech newspaper Seznam Zprávy over her cult‑coverage articles. The International Federation of Journalists condemned the move as power abuse – and it emerged that Pavlaninová herself had previously promoted Creative Society events. The Slovak prosecutor‑general dropped the case; Pavlaninová now faces disciplinary action.

Why should you care? When public officials bend the law for a disinformation cult, your right to reliable information is next in line.

On 1 April 2025, MP Stanislav Berkovec (ANO) hosted a media seminar where four AllatRa women spoke – masquerading as the non‑existent “Parents’ Free Association.” The Czech Interior Ministry has long warned MPs about the group’s pro‑Russia leanings, but Berkovec shrugged: “I can’t vet their private lives.” That is exactly how spiritual marketing morphs into political lobbying: parliament confers instant legitimacy.

Why this should matter to you

AllatRa rebrands at lightning speed and hunts for prestige; in spring 2024, its envoys secured a brief audience with Pope Francis. Months later, the group hired a US lobbyist to charm Congress. VSquare tracked 275 connected social‑media accounts that had pumped out 83,000+ videos to a cumulative two billion views.

If you think AllatRa isn’t in your feed, you may just not have noticed. It deploys the classic firehose of falsehood; flood audiences with so many “alternative facts” that certainty itself erodes.

AllatRa blends spirituality, volunteer glamour and utopian pledges – but beneath the glow sit pro‑Kremlin narratives, opaque finances and active lobbying. Critical thinking – finding the source, verifying the context, asking awkward questions – is the best immunisation against such hybrid movements.

References

From the archive: the hollow earth, and the inside-out cosmos

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This article originally appeared in The Skeptic, Volume 5, Issue 4, from 1991.

In the field of strange beliefs which go against common sense, one of the strangest is the idea that we live not on the outside surface of a sphere, but on the inside. In the USA in 1869 an angel appeared to Cyrus Reed Teed. It told him that the Earth is hollow and that we live on its inner surface and that the stars, Moon and Sun are all tiny bodies inside the sphere moving along very complicated paths.

In 1870 he described this in his book The Cellular Cosmogony, or the Earth a Concave Sphere. He believed God wanted him to found a new religion, so he changed his name to Koresh and began a cult called Koreshanity. It soon attracted believers. In the 1890s he took his colony of believers to Florida where they built the town of Estero. It was not until 1949 that the cult’s magazine, Flaming Sword, finally ceased publication.

The idea of an inside-out universe was also adopted in inter-war Germany by Peter Bender. He, and after his death Karl Neupert, led a cult which published several books during the Nazi period. They attracted the attention of the Nazi leadership, some of whom were attracted to many strange beliefs. In April 1942, a secret expedition, approved by Hitler and Himmler, set off to the Baltic island of Rügen. Led by Dr Heinz Fischer, it included some of Germany’s top radar experts.

After they arrived, their radar equipment was pointed into the sky at an angle of 45 degrees. The other scientists in the expedition assumed this was merely a test of the equipment. It was only after the radar had remained in this strange position for several days that Fischer told them exactly why they were there. Hitler wanted the inside-out cosmos theory proved scientifically. This was to be done by sending radar waves up into the sky where they would eventually hit another part of the inside of the sphere and be reflected back. After doing this the expedition were then to try to get an image of the British fleet in Scapa Flow.

The inside-out universe idea still has some supporters. Martin Gardner (Skeptical Inquirer vol 12, p355) recorded that in 1981 a mathematician, Mostafa Abdelkader, described in a mathematical paper how the universe could be mapped point by point into the inside-out cosmos model. In this mapping the further an object is above the surface of the Earth, the nearer it is to the centre of the hollow Earth, and the smaller it is. All the laws of the normal universe would be much more complicated, but to an observer in that universe everything would appear to be the same as to an observer in the normal universe.

Both models of the universe are valid, but in the inside-out cosmos the laws of physics are much more complicated. As there are no advantages in using this model, Occam’s Razor suggests it should be discarded.


  • Read more in Umberto Eco’s The Book of Legendary Lands, 2013

Facts won’t change minds about animal medicine, so should we bother trying?

In veterinary medicine (as in human medicine) we are often faced with people who believe that, despite our oath to advocate for our patients, there are veterinary professionals who are actively trying to harm animals.

As history shows with the likes of Harold Shipman, there are certainly sad and disastrous events that occur in human and veterinary medicine that we can learn from to ensure they never happen again. They are, thankfully, rare.

Yet sometimes, people believe – magnified and exacerbated by social media – that there is widespread harm being done because a mass of professionals is ‘in’ on a conspiracy, trying to make money, trying to harm pets, and more. This is not true. But, as with most things, the loud and vocal minority can make a lasting impact – especially when they set out to attack the integrity of a compassionate profession.

One example is anti-vaccination rhetoric. A 2020 study into human vaccination concluded that, over a 20-year period, vaccines were remarkably safe. Similarly, a 2004 canine study found no temporal association between vaccination and ill-health in dogs. Although there is always risk with any medication, and medication reactions obviously do occur, the preponderance of the evidence supports minimal risk of harm from vaccines. Even when we look more closely at some specific brands of vaccination that are particularly vilified, the evidence still suggests incredibly uncommon and rare adverse events.

You need only to look at the re-emergence of measles in the UK and USA; countries that had previously, due to vaccination, almost managed to eliminate the disease. New data suggests that it could soon become endemic again if vaccination levels remain as they are.

This re-emergence was fundamentally caused by a now-disproven paper that linked autism to a vaccine, and subsequent erosion of trust in science by misinformation. The General Medical Council found the paper’s author, former doctor Andrew Wakefield, guilty of serious professional misconduct – but, despite the publication’s withdrawal and being disproved by numerous studies, there are still people who continue to cite Wakefield’s research as evidence of the harms of vaccines.

Medical skepticism has been subject to social-psychological research, which found strong correlations between vaccine skepticism and adherence to complementary and alternative medicine and conspiracy ideation. A 2019 study by Cuevas et al. suggests that mistrust toward healthcare may unfavourably affect patient-clinician interactions and patients’ outcomes. To tackle it, we can’t just present facts, because facts do not change minds; we need to implement a more systemic long-term strategy to address the root causes of medical mistrust.

One 2020 paper (Scherer et al.) looked at three theoretical perspectives on why certain people are susceptible to online misinformation: lack of knowledge or literacy to discriminate between true and false information; having strong pre-existing beliefs or ideological motivations; and neglecting to sufficiently reflect about the truth or accuracy of news content encountered on social media.

Addressing pre-existing beliefs, research from Toomey et al. found that factors such as worldview, religion, and political beliefs have strong associations with rejection of science related to controversial issues. Not only that, but our bias towards those factors also means that we see data compatible with the beliefs we currently hold as more ‘valid’ than data that could refute those beliefs. This was further supported by a 2015 paper that showed acceptance of scientific evidence depends on the availability of such alternative points of view as religious faith and political ideology; if scientific results conflict with a readily available alternative view, individuals are less likely to defer to the research.

Furthermore, we are highly sensitive to the beliefs and actions of those in our immediate circle or community – is this the hunter-gatherer ancestral background rearing its head? One paper by Douglas et al., (2017) reported social motives (the desire to belong and to maintain a positive image of the self and the in-group) as a driver of conspiracy ideology.

A Black woman in a long-sleeved white top sitting at a white desk browses Facebook on her laptop
Browsing Facebook, a very effective way to build mistrust in medicine – human or animal. Image by cottonbro studio, Pexels

So, while behavioural change can occur at the individual level, broader impacts require a focus on social networks and systems. This is a great example of how social media platforms are exacerbating these beliefs, as people enter an echo-chamber and feel part of that community or movement. Trying to engage in reasonable discussion with individuals who choose to engage aggressively is likely futile; data that runs contrary to their view is likely to drive them further away.

Additionally, the physical strain of your time and resources and mental drain on your emotions means direct confrontation is not likely to change minds. Does this mean we shouldn’t ever ‘call out’ or counteract medical misinformation? Perhaps not.

There is often a silent majority, quietly reading, sitting on the fence. These people, not yet aligned to any particular view, will potentially read your professional, calm, polite and robust replies, and you may make a difference to them. Evidence does show that those people exposed to correct information are less susceptible to conspiracy or misinformation than those who have not been exposed to the correct information first. This is called inoculation theory – offering a logical basis for developing a psychological “vaccine” against misinformation.

A paper by Douglas et al. (2017) discusses factors such as epistemic motives (the human desire to find causal explanations for events, building up a stable, accurate, and internally consistent understanding of the world) and existential motives (the need for people to feel safe and secure in their environment and to exert control over the environment) as other reasons people will latch on to alternative or conspiracy views – because it gives them an answer and control over a situation they feel out of control of.

This is noteworthy in veterinary medicine – sadly, animals get ill and die, and sometimes these events are unexpected. We do not always do a post mortem to confirm diagnosis, maybe due to financial cost, or owners’ wishes. Owners, in their understandable deep emotional state of grief or mental duress (anyone who has lost an animal companion can attest to this), can try to find answers as to what happened – and can settle on blaming the vaccine/medication the pet had a week, month or even year prior, especially when anti-vax info is easily accessible when you start to search for it. Again, vaccine reactions do occur – this is the importance of pharmacosurveillance – but overall they have been proven incredibly safe.

Toomey et al.’s 2023 study concluded that most attitudes and behaviours regarding research decision-making are not based on the rational evaluation of evidence, but determined instead by a host of contextual, social, and cultural factors and values. Therefore, providing additional information – even in accessible formats – is not likely to lead to significant changes.

So, facts will not always change minds, and a social media argument is unlikely to be beneficial, helpful or fruitful to you or the other person, and will probably cause both of you considerable anger, anxiety and frustration. Ultimately, you both believe you’re right, and on reflection want the same thing – a healthy, happy pet (you’re just going about it via different routes, one of which may not be evidence-based). But there is some indication that effective techniques exist.

With that in mind, how do we best get people to evaluate, remember and engage in evidence-based information?

‘Message elaboration’ is a term that broadly refers to the amount of effort that an audience of a message has to use to process and evaluate a message, remember it, and subsequently accept or reject it. One paper from 2022 looked into the presentation of a message and its contents, evaluating how successfully it was received. The results indicated that including statistical evidence in messaging reduced elaboration, improving audiences’ understanding, with fewer misperceptions and increased perceived message believability. Facebook messages presented in this way also were associated with higher audience intentions to share, like and comment, showing greater engagement and favourability. The research also found that messages including text and an image had better message elaboration than image-only messages. This shows that, if we want to engage effectively with people on social media, we should consider how we present our messaging, as well as what we’re saying.

Benecke and DeYoung’s 2019 study looks at the broader picture, and identifies the need for a long-term educational strategy. In their work, they explain that medical professionals must take a different approach to education, including outreach to vulnerable communities and individuals; they also note that social media platforms have an active role to play in monitoring and banning false information.

In terms of bridging the gap between medical professionals and the public, and opening up conversation that’s more likely to help than hinder, we need more spaces for group dialogue, where we can listen to multiple perspectives and “embodied knowledge”, which can help us alter our message to make it more likely to be well-received, and to think more carefully about whom we seek to target with our message. In essence, we should tackle medical misinformation, but we must be strategic in how we do so.

Direct contact with clients and veterinary teams can also end in a positive or negative interaction. Perceived dismissive attitudes, judgement or defensive behaviour by a veterinary team will likely build bigger walls and shut down opportunity for conversation and compromise.

Some of these issues can be mitigated by ‘physician-focused’ changes. For example, a study found the effects of mistrust can be countered using patient-centered communication skills. These include soliciting the patient’s concerns and priorities, and being responsive to the healthcare needs and belief system the patient identifies with. One study found that medical professionals might be able to buffer patients’ levels of medical mistrust using patient-centred communication.

Medical misinformation is rife in human and veterinary medicine. It is frustrating, and can cause poor patient outcomes. But we, as veterinary professionals, have to accept some accountability in how our behaviour shapes communication and our perceived image. There is no simple answer as to how we tackle it, but ensuring we engage in the right way can ensure we help, rather than hinder, communication with those with alternative views.

Further Reading

The Skeptic Podcast: Episode #014

The Skeptic podcast, bringing you the best of the magazine’s expert analysis of pseudoscience, conspiracy theory and claims of the paranormal since its relaunch as online news source in September 2020. 

On this episode:

Subscribe to the show wherever you get your podcasts, or to support the show, take out a small voluntary donation at patreon.com/theskeptic.

My first experience at a Holistic Health and Healing Expo

On my long commute home from work one day, I passed a sign that read “Holistic Health and Healing Expo” and I was reminded of the events that Michael Marshall and Alice Howarth attend and talk about on the Skeptics with a K podcast. I wondered whether this might be something to see firsthand so I emailed the podcast website, asking if it would be worth my time.

The host was nice enough to reply encouragingly with some helpful tips as to how to make the most of my experience. I talked my wife, Aimee, who was rightfully leery, into going along for support – reassuring her that we were not going to be confrontational, but to witness first hand and try to understand why these events appeal to so many people.

At the Morgantown Expo Center, we paid $10 apiece to get a wristband for the day.  Besides that, there was ample opportunity to spend money, but I only bought some incense sticks for my son at home. For our 10 dollars we got a swag bag with a very nice coffee mug, a sample of elderberry and echinacea tea, a plastic sachet of tiny purple crystals, a strange stick of wood from ‘Appalachian ShaMomma’ with a card reading “mountains are calling… You going to answer?” (I have no idea of its purpose, as I did not see the stand), and an array of literature.

Crystals, books, tuning forks, Buddha bells, little statues, art, potions, teas and herbs lined the hall in various booths and tables. Everyone, with few exceptions, seemed very genuine and nice. Most of the vendors seemed to be true believers in their areas of “expertise”. I guess I should not have been surprised at how many of the presenters were trained masters of their professions, many of which were sufferers who decided to take up the calling themselves.

The first stand we visited, we both later agreed, was the toughest thing we encountered – the Health Benefits of X39 Stem Cell Activation Patches, run by Dr J. Thomas Acklin MD, who told us he was a former Johns Hopkins-trained neuroscientist. Dr Acklin was very forthright, asking what our ailments were. Aimee told him that she had thyroid disorder.  He said, “No you didn’t”. I also apparently did not have the diabetes, which would probably come as a surprise to those who diagnosed me. We were informed that medical professionals were being purposefully deceptive, but it was never explained as to how or in what way. 

A dentist looms over someone's face/the camera, holding a metal implement in each hand, with a headtorch shining down from his forehead. He's wearing glasses whose rims are resting on a blue surgical mask, and he's wearing beige gloves.
Tricksy doctors, always making things up..! Photo by Movidagrafica, via Pixabay

Dr Acklin explained that he was disillusioned by the medical profession, so he left to produce X39 for “Microbiome reconstruction… rapid minor pain relief, reduced inflammation, better sleep”, and a whole host of other things. His partner explained how our stem cells migrate throughout the body to regions of distress, once they’re called by a “targeted and specific light frequency”. And almost like they were immunological entities.

We, however, knew this was not the way stem cells work – Aimee and I each have master’s degrees in advanced biology. She works at a large pharma company and I work as Molecular Microbiologist in a laboratory. I also taught in biology, up until the pandemic.  Stem cells are generated locally or in bone marrow where they do migrate to the need area as a response to cell signalling whereas our immune system searches for problems and reacts accordingly. Their patches were designed to produce light frequencies that penetrate skin when attached to problem areas such as shoulder pain or malfunctioning beta cells in the pancreas. This man was very taxing, and when the first lecture session was called over the loudspeaker, we gladly excused ourselves.

My favourite booth was our second stop, where we met Bob Micklus and the Flowers in the Forest. It had a cabinet with rows of little blue dropper bottles labelled with flower names. Bob, soft-spoken and diligent, explained how each of his solutions did not contain any of the plant on the label. Water, according to Bob, has memory. His solutions worked like what seemed to me to be homeopathy with a botanical twist. Bob pointed to a compendium of plants and their respective benefits, qualities like “divine healing” and “stress relief”. He touted something he called “Florida Water”, which I read later goes for $10 for around 60ml. Three drops go in a glass of water daily, though for extreme cases they could be taken undiluted.

I would say about 70% of the booths were tailored to women. My wife, who is in her mid-40s, remarked how most of the attendees were women about her age. Men made up only a small part of the crowd. When Aimee and I split up, some of the booth operators seemed reluctant to spend much time on me; I assume because I was not their target demographic. No one seemed ready or willing to explain Reiki to me in any great detail at any of the four booths I visited alone.

While I was doing my best to avoid being too confrontational with the vendors, the thing I found hardest to hold my tongue over was where people with real issues were looking desperately for answers and miracles that modern medicine could not provide. Aimee noted a severely disabled man using a wheelchair rolling in the door and, who she imagined, frustrated with established medical treatments, was desperately looking for miracles.

Overall, our first visit to a Holistic Health and Healing Expo was quite fun, although my wife was thoroughly worn out from the long one-on-one chats she had with people who seemed well-meaning and thoroughly convinced by their own bad ideas. It’s an adventure we will always remember. Will we be quick to repeat it? Who knows…

From the archives: a chat with James Randi, the charming charlatan

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This article originally appeared in The Skeptic, Volume 5, Issue 4, from 1991.

If you want to madden a medium, harass a homeopath or anger an astrologer just mutter the magical incantation ‘James Randi’. Although his name is not yet a household one in the UK, his investigations and exposures of quackery, pseudoscience and paranormal flimflam give his name similar popularity in psychic circles to that of matadors amongst the animal rights community.

Randi is soon, however, to be a familiar face to millions of television watchers all over the UK when the six-part mini-series James Randi: Psychic Investigator begins on ITV on 17 July. In this series, Randi challenges individuals who claim to have paranormal abilities to demonstrate their powers in front of the cameras and a live studio audience. It is probably giving away no great secret to reveal that the series is unlikely to cause the discerning viewer to queue for treatment at his local psychic surgery or to consult an astrologer before choosing a marital partner.

Randi, who as the ‘Amazing Randi’ had a long career as a magician and escapologist, also has the musical distinction of being the man who cut off the head of rock musician Alice Cooper with a magician’s guillotine. Nowadays, however, he uses exposure rather than execution, the scientific method rather than sleight of hand, to further the aims implicit in his adopted role of writer and psychic investigator – a career change which was greatly helped in 1986 by a $270,000 grant from the prestigious MacArthur Foundation.

In March of this year, Randi spent several weeks in Manchester at the studios of Granada television both filming his mini-series and writing a new book which is to be published in Britain as the series is broadcast. Despite a hectic schedule which left him visibly exhausted (off the set) by the time the sixth episode was in the can, Randi kindly agreed to talk to The Skeptic about his life and his work.

I began by asking him about his childhood and his early influences:

‘I was born in Canada a long time ago, and by the time I was 12 I saw a performance by the magician Harry Blackstone Senior and that inspired me enough that I got curious about conjuring and how people fool themselves and how they are deceived by other people, and I got very interested in it – interested enough that I took up the conjuring trade. I did magic for years – I didn’t tell my mother, she thought I was selling narcotics but I didn’t want to embarrass her. Seriously, my family didn’t take it very kindly – they wanted me to be a telephone company executive but I wasn’t quite cut out for that type of work – and up until the day he died I don’t think my father ever forgave me for going on stage. But it has been very satisfactory for me and has returned me a good living over the years – although I have never gotten rich, I have always supported myself and paid my bills. But about 10 or 12 years ago, I began to slowly get out of the straight performing mode and began to get requests for my lecture without the magic show that went with it.

‘I guess it began gradually when word got out at my college shows that I also had some opinions on the paranormal and would be willing to talk to perhaps a psychology class on the subject. Eventually I started to get requests to lecture, not just to individual classes, but to the whole school body and I found that I could pack the necessary materials for my lecture into a single attaché case rather than the large van which the equipment for my magic show required. And frankly I began to get a great deal of personal satisfaction out of doing the lectures rather than the magic shows. The shows were entertaining and I hoped that along the way the college audience would learn to consider things a little more carefully. My lectures too are meant to be entertaining – and I still generally do some conjuring demonstrations to illustrate how easily we can be fooled – but now I’m specifically trying to inform my audience as well and that’s an important function.’


Although Randi makes no attack on people’s personal beliefs – only on the unscrupulous exploitation of those beliefs – his investigations inevitably bring him into conflict with people’s belief systems. This is a general hazard implicit in a skeptical world view in that, for instance, the exposure of the Turin shroud as a forgery or a Christian faith healer as a fraud may be perceived by believers as an attack on their religion. Randi was, in fact, himself brought up within the Christian faith and was gently encouraged, as a child, to go to church. He was even, for a brief period, an Anglican altar boy but he never took religion terribly seriously and never saw a necessity for supernatural forces to explain the world he saw around him:

‘I can’t prove a negative but I don’t see enough evidence to convince me that gods exist Although I don’t have a dogmatic disbelief I guess I would define myself as an atheist rather than an agnostic because when you have lived 62 years, as I have, and never seen anything which required the assumption of a deity or the supernatural, it pretty well forces you to the conclusion that it’s all mythology. But I have to acknowledge that it’s interesting mythology and that it perhaps has its use in a society. Having said that, I think I would prefer to live in a culture in which people don’t have to lean on the supernatural in order to bring themselves solace. I don’t think it’s any harder to face a world in which you know, one day, you will cease to exist. I’ve published seven books with three more in the pipeline and that’s my immortality and I’m satisfied with it’.


Religious belief, of course, is a personal matter which is not the concern of Randi or any other skeptic but faith healing, particularly in the context of a major religion, is a topic about which Randi has strong views:

‘I’m afraid that faith healing when carried out by a minister of a major religion is particularly dangerous because people may conclude that as the man doesn’t make any money from it he is somehow more likely to be genuine. They seem to feel that money is the only possible motive for people’s actions. But of course a priest may practice healing – simply because it gives him enormous power. I’m not saying this in a negative fashion – I’m not saying a priest would do it in order to show his contact with divinity – rather that perhaps it gives him status in his community. My concern is whether or not it helps the people who believe they are being helped by it and I don’t think that it does. I think it leads them to a magical form of thinking which can be extremely dangerous if not fatal.’

‘Now, I accept that someone suffering from a complaint which has a psychosomatic component to it may feel that he has been helped by the faith-healer but you have to look ahead. What happens if that person now gets some sort of a cancerous condition which needs surgical and/or chemical attention – what does he do? He says “Hey it worked for my asthma, it worked for my migraine, now it will also cure the cancer because God can cure any of these things.” Of course my question is why would God give him the cancer in the first place? Is God some sort of capricious being who plays with you like a pair of dice? Does he say “Yea, I think I’ll flip this one a tumour – that will be fun to watch”. I find it so incredible that anyone can believe this kind of nonsense but the world is made of all different kinds of people with different kinds of beliefs.’


Despite his strong views, however, even if Randi were President for a day he would not wish to introduce legislation to ban all faith healers. Rather than someone who wishes to impose his views on others he sees himself primarily as an educator:

‘In a position of power and influence, I would seek only to use my power to educate people. I’m just a man walking down the street who sees someone being hit by a car and knocked into the street. I’m neither a lawyer nor a medical person but I can summon appropriate help – I drag the person out of the way of the traffic and I make sure that medical assistance is summoned and perhaps legal assistance as well – but that’s the most I can do. If that person then wants to crawl back into the traffic to get run over a second time, I may even go after him a second time and drag him out of the traffic. But if he gets angry with me and says “I would rather be run over, thank you” I’ll say “That’s your choice” and walk on my way but not without at least attempting to summon legitimate assistance for the person. That’s essentially what I’m doing, I see these people being ‘run down’, I go over and pick them up and say “You’ve been run down by forces beyond your ability to control them and I want to arm you so that you can control them and understand them in the future.” But if they say, “Sorry I don’t want to know about it,” then I simply leave them and go on my way.

‘I wouldn’t want to use legislation to prevent people feeling the way they want to feel and doing what they want to do as long as it doesn’t harm other people. I think people should have the right to be stupid if they want to be because in among all that range of things that I class as ‘stupid’ there may be lurking a new discovery.’ 


There is however, at least one exception to Randi’s unwillingness to use legislation to limit stupidity and irrationality and that is in specific areas of faith-healing where harm may undoubtedly be done:

‘I find it incredible that, here in Britain, you have no laws whatever against even the most extreme forms of faith-healing. I’m not talking now about healers who wave their hands over your body and put you in tune with the Cosmic Frequency. No, I’m talking about healers – who practise in this country – who poke things up the noses of their patients, and worse still, make real incisions in people’s bodies without antisepsis. They can do this quite freely and there is nothing to prevent them from doing so. This to me is a shocking situation and I would say to people in the UK that you should be in touch with your MP to see whether something can be done about it.

‘I really am not, in general, in favour of legislation but there has to be some limitation on the extent to which people can assault you physically and do some of these really horrendous things – particularly today when these people can be vectors of very serious communicable diseases that in many cases are fatal. I just hope that somebody doesn’t have to die at the hands of one of these so-called healers before an MP somewhere in the country decides there are enough complaints and attempts to introduce legislation to do something about it. Perhaps an important message to British skeptics is to encourage them to make their angry feelings on this subject known to members of parliament.’


Although Randi is not (and never claims to be) a scientist he did work many years ago as a research technician at the University of Toronto. He is extremely interested in science and the scientific method and is accustomed to working in close collaboration with leading scientists in some of his investigations:

‘I have a healthy interest in science but I have always said to my audiences, during my lectures: “I appear before you without any academic credentials whatsoever, which gives me a certain freedom to say things that academics dare not say because they have someone to be accountable to in the morning. I have to account to no-one except my own conscience.’

Despite the fact that he has a healthy respect for science in general and certain scientists in particular, Randi is not always in awe of a person because he has the letters ‘PhD’ after his name (I made no comment about my own academic qualifications at this stage of our conversation):

‘I have a theory about PhDs: I suspect that when the doctorates are handed out there is a secret chemical in the degree certificate that is absorbed into the skin. The chemical goes directly to the brain where it paralyses specific parts of the speech centre. This part of the brain controls two sentences only and those sentences are: “I was wrong” and “I don’t know”, because I ‘ve never heard a PhD ever give either of those answers. Now, it’s possible that I’m wrong and that the speech centre can handle these sentences perfectly well, but I have a feeling that the person with the PhD would just go “beedeee beedee beedee bee” when they tried to pronounce the words.

‘Joking apart, I have interacted very well with scientists over the years and can claim as good personal friends people like lsaac Asimov, Carl Sagan, Murray Gell-Mann and the late Richard Feynman – whom I miss greatly. They have generally appreciated my efforts and have lent me their valuable advice over the years. They are pretty heady company to keep and I always feel a little awed when I’m in their presence. Of course, I have neither their accomplishments nor their reputation. I have a relatively minor reputation but nonetheless, though my spectrum is very narrow, I think it can be very strong and I think that the skeptical movement should also keep its spectrum fairly narrow.’


On the theme of breadth of interest, Randi feels that CSICOP, the main skeptical organisation in the US, with which he has been intimately connected for many years (until his recent resignation because of legal problems with Uri Geller) has, in some instances, overextended itself. Surprisingly he feels that the evolution versus creationism battle – which is still being fought in schools in some states in the US – is one in which CSICOP should not be involved:

‘I think the evolution/creationism debate is really a religious matter – naturally it’s a scientific matter too but I wouldn’t put it in the same bag as the paranormal and I think you can stretch yourself a little thin’.

Although Randi himself has no time for the creationist arguments, unlike many skeptics, he would be prepared to allow the proponents of creationism equal time in schools, at least as far as debate and discussion are concerned:

‘I think they should get equal time in schools, but the people that oppose them and represent the rational aspect of the argument should be very well chosen. I myself will not attempt to confront a creationist because I’m not trained in that direction. I don’t understand enough about biology and evolutionary theory to be able to argue from a point of strength and I think this is true of many skeptics.

‘However, when I talk of equal time I don’t mean that creationism should be taught in schools on an equal basis with evolution – it is not a science and should not be taught but it should be debated. I think that frequent debates should take place. Some of the creationists do a good job of representing their cause but most of it is just blather. Their arguments often only consist of unsubstantiated claims but nonetheless I think that the people who oppose them must be well trained. I’m happy to leave that to people like Carl Sagan and Stephen Jay Gould in the United States who do a marvellous job of handling it.

‘As far as the remit of the skeptical movement is concerned, my personal preference is that CSICOP certainly comment on it from time to time but I think that, in the main, it is better for us to stay out of it because there are other things that require our attention. I guess I could be argued out of that view but I’ve always felt that it is better for me to keep my spectrum relatively narrow. I’m not going to spread myself too thin by arguing Santa Claus, squaring the circle and Fermat’s last theorem. I think we spin our wheels doing that sort of thing, other people can handle it much better.’


In the areas in which he does operate, Randi’s knowledge and experience are second to none but there was one classic case where (unlike the person with the PhD) he was able to say clearly ‘I was wrong’:

‘This wasn’t a paranormal subject at all. It was just highly unusual and began a few years ago when Time magazine called me to ask if I had seen an article in the New York Times that morning concerning a gentleman who claimed to be able to ‘read’ the surface of vinyl records. That is, he could look at the surface of an LP recording and tell you the name of the composer and which piece of music it was. At the time I didn’t realise that it was limited to classical composers from Beethoven to the present – no avant garde composers and so on – which limited the field a great deal. Anyway, I was asked by the journalist what I thought of it and I said that it was clearly possible as the information is on the surface of the LP but very improbable but I’d look into it. Of course by the end of the day he had demonstrated to my entire satisfaction that he could do it – although there was nothing whatever paranormal about his ability’ .

Having been ‘wrong’ once does he think it likely that one day someone will successfully demonstrate a paranormal ability and thus be entitled to the $10,000 cheque which he has been carrying around in his pocket for the last 25 years – and what would be his reaction be if this were to occur?

‘Oh, this would be a very exciting moment in my life and worth every cent of my $10,000, believe me. I am certainly prepared for a genuine demonstration of paranormal abilities – but I think that it is extremely unlikely. Put it this way; I have been sitting by the chimney for 35 years now and all my evidence tells me that Santa Claus is unlikely to appear on Christmas Eve (or any other day of the year). On the other hand should a fat man in a red suit come down my chimney on December 24, by golly, I’ll give him my list and tell him that I have been a very good boy!’

Whether St Nicholas would accept that James Randi, atheist, skeptic – and the only man in the world to have the profession ‘charlatan’ on his American Express card – had behaved himself for the previous 12 months is a matter about which even the credulous might be skeptical.

Obstetric emergencies are no place for alternative medicine

It is curious to note how, in emergency situations, proposals appear that promise quick, safe and “natural” solutions. This is nothing new; we have already seen things like this in dengue epidemics, COVID-19 and cancer treatment. Even more worryingly, this has also found its way into obstetric emergencies, such as the “study” entitled “Use of Acupuncture in Cases of Hypertensive Emergencies during Pregnancy”.

Based on parts of a final paper for a postgraduate course in Acupuncture at CETN (Center for Studies of Natural Therapies), the supposed study illustrates the problem well: it is an experimental proposal that does not produce useful results, can delay conventional treatment and put the lives of pregnant women at risk.

The “study” in question reports cases of pregnant women with hypertension – supposedly classified as “hypertensive emergencies” – who underwent auricular acupuncture and bleeding from the apex of the ear, with the aim of reducing blood pressure. Although the text mentions the possibility of drug treatment after an initial “stabilization”, it is clear that alternative interventions were prioritised as the first treatment, instead of effective and urgent management of the hypertensive condition. This is alarming; an obstetric emergency cannot be held hostage by therapies without demonstrated efficacy and safety.

As is usual in “studies” of this type, the absence of a rigorous methodology is clearly evident: there is no control group (or, if there is, it is not adequately presented), the exact number of patients analysed is unknown (the number of participants in each subgroup is not even mentioned), there is no information on whether there was randomisation (probably non-existent, given the lack of a control group), nor is there any description of any type of reliable diagnostic criterion for classifying blood pressure as a “hypertensive emergency”. On the contrary, the cutoff point for considering inclusion in the study was a pressure above 120×80 mmHg; a value that, let’s face it, does not constitute an urgent or emergency condition according to any cardiology or obstetrics guidelines.

It is plausible that most of these patients, therefore, were not even in a condition of imminent risk, which calls into question any supposed effectiveness of the practice.

Pre-eclampsia

Pre-eclampsia is generally characterised by high blood pressure (systolic pressure above 140 and/or diastolic pressure above 90 mmHg) after the 20th week of pregnancy, associated with high levels of protein in the urine and/or target organ dysfunction. We are not talking about a condition caused by “stress” or something emotional, but rather a complex problem, based on genetic, immunological and vascular factors. Patients with preeclampsia may progress to eclampsia, a condition that involves seizures and risk of coma, or develop potentially fatal complications, such as HELLP syndrome (Haemolysis, Elevated Liver Enzymes and Low Platelet Count), kidney failure, premature placental abruption, premature birth and even maternal and/or foetal death.

This “alternative protocol” draws attention precisely because it is indicative of a larger problem: the spread of pseudoscientific practices in healthcare. It perfectly exemplifies the creation of a seductive narrative to justify unfounded treatments. The original text evokes concepts from Traditional Chinese Medicine to explain pre-eclampsia, such as “wind rising from the liver”, “Yin deficiency” or “damp-heat”, without, at any point, providing evidence for this.

By trying to “fit” a very serious obstetric condition, such as pre-eclampsia, into merely traditional standards that have not been validated in the medical-scientific sphere, they attempt to legitimise dangerous practices that can delay or replace treatments that would have a real impact on reducing complications and maternal and foetal mortality.

The rush that saves lives

In obstetric emergencies, every minute counts. Pre-eclampsia can worsen rapidly, leading to seizures, pulmonary oedema, and other serious complications. If the patient is led to believe that “natural” measures must come first, she risks losing valuable time before receiving proven effective medication. The momentary feeling of “wellbeing,” without monitoring and without adequate monitoring of vital signs, can mask progression to lethal stages.

Just look at the main guidelines of major entities – such as the American College of Obstetrics and Gynaecology (ACOG), the International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy (ISSHP), the Brazilian Network for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy (RBEHG) or even the World Health Organization (WHO) – to see that none of them recommend an “integrative” treatment as an initial approach to the crisis, much less for hypertensive emergency.

On the contrary, all of them indicate immediate clinical intervention, not only with the use of antihypertensives that are safe for pregnancy (such as nifedipine, hydralazine and, where available, labetalol), but also with the use of magnesium sulphate, which is essential for the prevention of seizures, careful evaluation of foetal well-being, hospitalisation, intensive monitoring in the most severe cases and, depending on the severity and gestational age, termination of pregnancy.

A pie chart showing 
causes of maternal mortality in Brazil in 2023, including infection, abortion, haemorrhage and indirect/unknown causes. Hypertension is the highest specific cause of death, accounting for 27% of cases (40.9% of deaths had an indirect cause)
Causes of maternal mortality in Brazil in 2023. Hypertension is the highest specific cause of death, accounting for 27% of cases (40.9% of deaths had an indirect cause)

It is understandable that pregnant women may be afraid of medications, especially if they are uncertain about side effects or risks to the foetus. Unfortunately, this uncertainty leaves room for promises of “harmless” or “chemical-free” techniques.

The result is dangerous confusion, since what is at stake is the health of both mother and baby. When it comes to pre-eclampsia, supposed temporary relief does not guarantee that the disease will not continue to advance silently.

Added to this is our harsh reality: hypertension is the leading cause of direct maternal death in Brazil (and the leading cause as an isolated cause). We need more efficient prenatal care and quick responses when signs of pre-eclampsia appear, not dubious protocols that further delay correct referral. 

Pseudoscientific bingo

This study serves as a perfect example of pseudoscientific logic, featuring elements that are common to this type of biased study:

  • Lack of explicit inclusion criteria and use of outdated nomenclature: women with blood pressure above 120×80 mmHg were labeled as having a “hypertensive emergency”. This is a gross mistake, as it does not comply with international standards. Furthermore, the article uses nomenclature that is no longer in use, such as DHEG (hypertensive disease specific to pregnancy).
  • Hasty conclusions: based on specific observations, the author concludes that “in 61.5% of cases, acupuncture was successful in reducing blood pressure levels”. Success based on what parameters? How long does this supposed effect last?
  • Absence of a control group: no comparison is made with pregnant women who simply rested and then had their blood pressure measured (which would not be indicated in an emergency, but is recommended in hypertensive crises, after 15 minutes, since with rest, in the latter, the blood pressure can actually drop); or pregnant women who received standard treatment with appropriate medications; or even pregnant women who received another harmless intervention (placebo). Without control, there can be no talk of efficacy. And when there is no evidence of efficacy, there is no therapeutic effectiveness, as we have already discussed.
  • Confusion between correlation and causation: Given the lack of reliable methodology, the study cannot prove that it was acupuncture that reduced blood pressure – or even that it was dangerously high at the beginning of the study.
  • Omission of critical data: no report of loss to follow-up (if patients returned to the emergency room with worsening of their condition), no mention of relevant maternal or neonatal outcomes (e.g. maternal mortality, neonatal mortality, incidence of eclampsia, neurological damage, etc.).
  • Vague, grandiose (and dangerous) claims: The final message that auriculotherapy “can be used to reduce blood pressure levels in pregnant women seeking emergency services” states much more than the data presented allows us to conclude. And worse, readers of the article may understand that it is acceptable to refuse or postpone obstetric management recommended by medical guidelines, believing in a false solution.
  • The “complementary” discourse: Advocates of alternative therapies often argue that they do not want to replace evidence-based practices, but rather complement them. In an ideal world, this justification might even sound reasonable. However, in practice, we see that such interventions are often presented as sufficient or as “first line” (as, in fact, this study suggests). Furthermore, time and money are both scarce resources. In this way, the “complementary” ends up becoming a trap that takes the focus away from what really needs to be done – and, in this case, done quickly.
  • “Emotional” causes for multifactorial organic issues: many “alternative interventions” are based on the mistaken notion that high blood pressure (especially during pregnancy) is the result exclusively of stress or emotional changes. We do not deny that psychological factors can momentarily affect blood pressure, but the pathophysiology of preeclampsia cannot be explained by “excessive nervousness” or anxiety. Reducing the complexity of this issue to a purely “psychoemotional” issue creates the dangerous feeling that simply relaxing (with lavender, teas, foot baths or auriculotherapy) is enough to control blood pressure. Patients with blood pressure lability (blood pressure that “rises with stress”) or with white coat hypertension (blood pressure that only rises during a medical appointment) have a higher risk of developing pre-eclampsia. This in itself is already a warning sign, requiring medical referral.

Systemic problem

Unfortunately, this study is not just an isolated daydream; it reveals what often happens when people in vulnerable situations (such as pregnant women) encounter, in the health system or on social networks, professionals who offer “quick and natural solutions” to serious problems. These are solutions based on beliefs without scientific basis and which can delay effective care.

This is not about demonising any practice that is not strictly pharmacological. The problem here is the use of unvalidated therapies as substitutes or barriers to conventional treatment, especially when the clock is ticking. The idea that “it doesn’t hurt to try” ignores the risk of delaying effective interventions.

There is also a social dimension. A poorly founded study, but with the guise of “academic research,” may be disseminated in lectures, social networks, or less discerning media outlets. Many people firmly believe that everything they discover through Google searches and online pages is true. Patients who read about the subject on the internet may ask: “Why not try acupuncture first, since an article said it works and is less invasive?” Not to mention the cases in which authorities and professional associations end up legitimising such practices simply because of their popularity.

A man with short dark hair and light brown skin looks at his smartphone as he unlocks it with his right hand, his bright white keyboard out of focus in the background
Dr Google rarely provides useful information, especially on complex topics in times of high stress. Image by Foundry Co from Pixabay

The role of professionals who fight for a more scientific medicine is to monitor, report and inform the population about the risks involved in practices like this. There is no room, in emergency situations, for “experimental therapies” that do not meet the basic criteria of plausibility and ethical criteria of clinical research.

Final considerations

By proposing (and promoting) auricular acupuncture as a priority intervention in “hypertensive emergencies” during pregnancy, the “study” risks confusing professionals and patients, since the mere appearance of “academic research” may give a false impression of legitimacy. Although the initiative presents itself as “experimental,” it does not meet the scientific criteria required for this. The lack of an adequate methodological design, the absence of a control group, and the incorrect definition of the inclusion criteria seriously compromise the validity of the results presented.

Even more alarming is the fact that, under the guise of an experimental protocol, pregnant women were subjected to an intervention that delayed the administration of proven-effective conventional treatments, which constitutes a flagrant ethical violation. We were unable to find the aforementioned study published in any national or international journal, which in fact seems impossible to us, given so many serious problems and biases. However, we assume that it was approved by a Research Ethics Committee (REC), which, if proven, is unacceptable. How can a research project to treat hypertensive emergencies with auriculotherapy be authorised? How can a study with so many methodological flaws be allowed?

The real line in healthcare is not between “conventional” and “alternative” medicine, but between what is evidence-based and what is not. In emergencies, we cannot forgo what really works. If there is one lesson from this episode, it is the warning it provides: maternal health is not a place of illusion. When dealing with pre-eclampsia and eclampsia, every minute of delay in providing appropriate care can cost a life – or two.

How to play Rock, Paper, Scissors optimally: the Nash equilibrium

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Rock, Paper, Scissors (RPS) is a very simple game. So simple, in fact, it’s almost dull! However, it may be more interesting than you realise.

We all think we know how to play the game “correctly”, based on intuition alone. You simply choose your strategy randomly and hope to get lucky.

But how do we implement such a strategy in practice? If we had a calculator to hand, we could use the random number generator (RNG) function to generate a decimal between 0 and 1 and use the following rule to make our decisions:

  • 0.00 – 0.33: play R
  • 0.33 – 0.66: play P
  • 0.66 – 0.99: play S

We’ll call this the RNG strategy. I suggest you try this the next time you and your wife are deciding whose turn it is to make a cup of tea; just for the reaction you’ll get if nothing else. An important detail about the pseudo-random RNG strategy is that it cannot lose (in the long term). By that I mean over time, as you play more and more games, your ratio of win:draw:lose will stabilise at 1/3:1/3:1/3 and your victories and losses will cancel each other out.

This is a common focus of Game Theory analysis. We accept that we cannot control short-term luck and instead turn our attention to long-term results using the law of large numbers, considering what would happen if we used this strategy over millions of games.

There’s an interesting paradox hidden within the claim we just made, though. Notice that we made no mention of our opponent’s strategy. Our ratio will converge to 1/3:1/3:1/3, regardless of what our opponent does.

To get an intuition for why this is true, imagine for a moment you’re playing against the most predictable opponent in the world; they always choose Rock. If we persist with the RNG strategy, then the following will happen:

  • 1/3 of the time we play Rock vs Rock (draw)
  • 1/3 of the time we play Paper vs Rock (win)
  • 1/3 of the time we play Scissors vs Rock (lose)

In the long-term, our ratio is still 1/3:1/3:1/3, as we predicted. The amazing thing here is that it does not matter what ratios our opponent decides to use; our long-term results are exactly the same. For those of you familiar with probability trees, you can test this for yourself when your opponent uses the following ratios verses your RNG strategy:

  • Rock: 4/9
  • Paper: 2/9
  • Scissors: 3/9

Why perfection loses money

Some of the previous examples should be raising alarm bells. When one player uses the RNG strategy, it literally does not matter what the opponent does. They could be using the same RNG strategy, they could be playing Rock every time, or they could be doing anything in between. Our long-term expectation is the same: we’ll win about as much as we lose.

To frame this phenomenon a bit more mathematically, imagine you win £1 every time you win and lose £1 every time you lose (nothing happens when you draw). Then in the long-term you expect to win exactly £0. However, there is some nuance to consider, as the RNG strategy actually loses money.

Imagine the following scenario. You play a million games of RPS over your life time for £1 a game (you’re the world’s most boring gambling addict). At the end of your thrilling career, you have won exactly £0. But how much time did you spend playing? And what was the opportunity cost of that time? Could you have been doing something more productive with your time, something that actually made money?

A close-up of a pile of British pence coins mainly of values 1p, 10p and 20p.
A selection sub-£1 denominations of British coins. Image by Kelvin Stuttard, source: Pixabay.

This concept of opportunity cost is important, and it comes up all the time.

I was once asked to do an hour of online maths tutoring on a Sunday morning for £40. I declined because the patio needed de-weeding, and I wanted to save money – I wasn’t going to pay a handyman £20 for something I could do myself! The job took about an hour and my back was aching by the end of it. Did I save money? Well, yes, I spent £0 instead of £20. But I could have paid the £20 and used that hour to do the maths tutoring, leaving me with a net profit of £20 and the ability to stand up straight.

On the face of it, the conclusion is simple; don’t waste your time playing RPS. Or is there more to it?

Why you should be making mistakes

We’ve seen that when one of the players (or both) uses the RNG strategy, then RPS is a break-even game (losing even when you consider the opportunity cost). The reality, though, is that nobody is using the RNG strategy. Even if you know about the strategy, actually implementing it is very difficult without the use of a calculator. Just try playing RPS a hundred times in a row while trying to be as random as possible. It’s mentally exhausting and, no matter how hard you try, you’ll eventually fall into a predictable pattern. In fact, mass data analysis (MDA) suggests that, on average, people play Rock at too high a frequency (according to WRPSA, the World Rock Paper Scissors Association).

Something like the following is typical for someone trying to replicate a random strategy:

  • Rock: 37%
  • Paper: 30%
  • Scissors: 33%

We’ll call this the MDA strategy.

The necessary response is simple. Our opponent is biased towards choosing Rock, so we should be biased towards choosing Paper. And if you’re playing a one-off game against a new opponent, this is what I recommend you do; just play Paper. In fact, we can calculate our expected payoff when we use this maximal exploitative strategy versus the MDA strategy. We can expect to win, on average, £0.04 per game. It’s not much, but it’s certainly better than the £0 we expected when our opponent played perfectly!

Is this exploitative strategy a mistake? Well, the answer to that is nuanced. On the one hand, it maximises our expected payoff versus our opponent’s mistake. On the other hand, it is a deviation from RNG, and can be counter-exploited by our opponents (if they know we’re doing it). In fact, we’re about to see exactly how this “mistake” can be punished.

How mistakes can lose even more money

As we said, Game Theory is concerned about the long-term. What would happen if you played like this against the same person for 100 consecutive games? It won’t take them long to realise we’re playing Paper every single time. And just like that, our advantage is lost. Even the most unobservant opponents are capable of making adjustments against such obvious deviations and, when they do it, they may not be so obvious about it. If they realise what we’re doing and adjust their frequencies even slightly to something like:

  • Rock: 30%
  • Paper: 30%
  • Scissors: 40%

Then our expected payoff per game plummets to -£0.10 per game; we’re now losing money!

And this simple example sums up the problem with exploitation. By deviating from the safe confines of the RNG strategy, we have the potential to boost our win rate from zero to hero. But, take it too far and our opponents will adjust and we’re suddenly losing money.

Why sub-optimal mistakes will make you rich

Our mistake was to take things too far. I believe there’s a sweet spot somewhere between the RNG strategy (no risk, no reward) and the maximal exploitative strategy (high risk, high reward). I would call this sweet spot a marginal exploitative strategy (low risk, low reward). Something like the following might be one such choice when playing against the MDA strategy:

  • Rock: 30%
  • Paper: 45%
  • Scissors: 25%

We have a more conservative bias towards Paper but will now generate a measly expected payoff of £0.0095 per game, or about one penny! To put that in context, that’s 100 games to win approximately £1!

Is this suggestion the perfect balance between risk and reward? Who knows! That’s the beautiful grey area in exploitative Game Theory. How far can we push our luck before we run a serious risk of our opponent realising and adapting. I would suggest that for a game like RPS, we can’t push our luck very far.

Is all this effort worth it for a penny? That depends on a few things such as:

  • Opportunity cost – could we make more money elsewhere with less time and effort?
  • Size of the game – what if we played for £10 per game, or £100 per game? Our expected payoff becomes £0.095 per game and £0.95 per game, respectively.
  • Strength of opponent – the MDA strategy isn’t perfect, but it’s not far off. What if the exact person in front of you is even further away from RNG? Our marginal exploitative strategy will now generate a higher expected payoff.
  • Our skill edge – it’s not enough for our opponent to make mistakes. We need to have the clarity of thought to be able to identify: what mistakes they’re making; how to exploit them; how much to exploit them.

RPS vs NLHE

An important feature of RPS is its simplicity. By that I mean it’s very easy for our opponents to defend themselves. There’s only one decision to make when they play, and it’s the same decision every time. As such, there’s only one strategy to learn (RNG), and it’s relatively simple to implement something approximating it. Sure, they’ll make small mistakes, and we can exploit them a little bit, but our profit margins are so thin that it’s probably not in our interest to play when we consider opportunity costs.

A white person's hand with a face-down blue and white deck of cards on a patterned tablecloth. In the photo, the person is sitting opposite the viewer, with their index finger and thumb resting on the top card.
Someone considers their next move with the deck of cards. Image by tookapic on Pixabay.

Compare this now to one of my favourite games; No Limit Hold’Em (NLHE) poker. There is no longer a single decision point (node) for our opponents to think about. There are in fact thousands of them spread across the entire game tree. Memorising (and implementing) the appropriate un-exploitable strategy at each node is simply not humanly possible. Not only that, but implementing something even approximating the optimal strategy is incredibly difficult for all but the strongest professionals.

Recreational poker players are, quite simply, making huge mistakes on a consistent basis. But how do we exploit them across thousands of different nodes, and how far can we push our luck (maximal vs marginal exploitation)? The over-simplified answer to these two questions is:

  • Mass Data Analysis reveals consistent patterns in the types of mistakes poker players make, generating useful heuristics to guide our exploitative strategies.
  • Each of the thousands of nodes occurs infrequently enough, that we can use maximally exploitative strategies across the board with very little risk of being detected (in live poker at least, where players don’t have access to a HUD).

The end result is that professional poker can be very lucrative for a dedicated professional who is willing to invest the time and hard work required to learn these exploitative heuristics. As with all games, there is short-term variance, high variance in fact for live poker. But, long term, it’s possible to make good money. At 5/5 live 200 cap in the USA, the strongest players can expect to make close to $100 per hour. Once their bankroll is big enough to handle the variance, they can move up in stakes and push that win rate higher and higher.

Conclusion

If you’re playing a one-off game of RPS, play Paper! You’re not guaranteed to win, but you give yourself the best chance. However, you probably shouldn’t take up professional RPS unless you can consistently play against very weak players for large amounts of money.

The more complicated the game, the more we can push our luck and play close to maximal exploitative strategies – it’s simply too difficult for our opponents to realise what we’re doing.