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From the archives: Going to great lengths – long-hair pseudoscience

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This article originally appeared in The Skeptic, Volume 21, Issue 1, from 2011.

The Australian radio broadcaster and columnist Derryn Hinch once observed (in his excellent book on how to play Scrabble) that, “Anything worth having is worth cheating for.” There seems to be a corollary to this principle that Hinch didn’t document: “Anything worth having is worth believing something silly for.”

I offer as Exhibit A the many Web forums dedicated to long hair.

You would think that if there’s one thing you couldn’t argue over, it’s how fast hair grows. There are, of course, hair myths you can argue about, but that’s a different story. The forums are full of debunking: no, Virginia, hair does not continue to grow after you’re dead; yes, Virginia, brushing it while wet really is bad for it.

First of all, let’s get past the idea that discussing long hair on the Web is weird. Like many other pursuits, growing very long, healthy hair takes a lot of time, patience, and discipline. It’s only logical that people trying to do this successfully, meet to swap ideas, tips, and encouragement.

I guess it can be pretty lonely sometimes as your hair approaches butt-length at the average crawl of half an inch a month if everyone you know has ear-length hair and is bugging you about why you don’t get it cut short, layered, dyed, and fried like everyone else. Sceptics should be able to relate to that sense of isolation.

The point where I decided it had to be written about came this week, when someone started a thread about positive thinking. She’d read a book called The Secret, and talked about manifesting her hair goals. “I do talk to my hair sometimes,” wrote one poster in response. “We can manifest our desires.”

Argh.

This is the thing about a forum full of impatient people. Some of them are genuinely driven to desperation over problems like thinning hair, troublesome scalp conditions, or extensive damage. More of them are just impatient to see dyed layers grow out or reach targets like waist, hip, knee… Measuring length is a very big activity for them. Most display pictures of their hair, taken from the back, which unfortunately reminds me of a plain-brown-wrapper magazine I saw once called More Than Seven Inches.

I can only guess that men going bald are twice as obsessive.

And they try the most extraordinary things. Vitamin and mineral supplements – most notably biotin (try Googling on “hair vitamin”), MSM, and basic multi-vitamins. What’s a little scary are the dosages some of them report taking. A little research suggests that a 5mg daily dose of biotin, which is water-soluble, is basically harmless, but it’s still more than 15 times the recommended daily allowance.

Reading the lengthy lists of supplements some of these people are taking is enough to make you side with the folks that want to require a prescription for potent supplements – not that this would do anything much; someone intent on taking 5 mg of biotin a day will be just as willing to take 15 300mcg pills.

It is safe to say that if there is a food or cosmetic substance in the world, someone has tried it on their hair: lemon juice, apple cider vinegar, eggs, milk, honey, olive oil (extra virgin – no cheap substitutes, please), coconut oil, yogurt, mayonnaise…

One of the amusements is watching people chatter on enthusiastically about the wonders of the stuff they’re taking. Many of these postings conclude, “…and I managed a solid half-inch of growth last month.”

In other words, they spent a lot of money and downed a lot of self-prescribed substances and remained precisely in line with the average. They know, in other topics, that a half-inch a month is the average, and yet they seem to manage to convince themselves that their efforts have achieved something. Of course, length isn’t everything, and they know this, too; health and condition also win points.

Most recently, there’s been a bizarre fad for using Monistat, an over-the-counter remedy for vaginal yeast infections. The reasoning behind this is fuzzy, but it seems to revolve around that idea that Monistat (or, more precisely, its active ingredient, miconazole) is antifungal, and there’s a fungus that lives harmlessly on your scalp that maybe interferes a little bit with follicular action. Almost everyone trying this is reporting near-instant, high-speed growth.

I’m guessing measuring variations account for a lot of this. It isn’t, after all, the easiest thing to measure your own hair accurately and consistently. Obviously, in a long hair forum, you go for the longest measurement you can get, even if that means stretching out two hairs to get it. And if you’ve been spending money on some new substance, you’re likely to look even more eagerly for signs of growth than you did before, just as having invested the money to consult a professional psychic makes you more likely to believe they have special insight.

The discussion and experiments had been proceeding for a few weeks when a sane person stepped in and observed something similar: in all the many miracle growth remedies she’d seen, she said, she’d noticed that long-term, persistent growth didn’t seem to happen. There’d be a burst of excitement for a month or so, but long-term this year’s Monistat experimenters will find their hair growing at…a half-inch per month. Patience, folks.

From the archives: The Q-link pendant, protecting you from imaginary EMF threats

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This article originally appeared in The Skeptic, Volume 21, Issue 1, from 2011.

It always happens. Your least favourite child bought you a pair of novelty socks for Christmas when in fact you really wanted a pendant, an electronic gadget or a secret elixir to prolong and preserve your health. Your disappointment on squeezing those socks through the wrapping was almost visible to the little one.

Thankfully Q-Link, a Bristol based company, has the product for you. It’s a pendant, an electronic gadget and a secret elixir to prolong and preserve your health. Q-Link, who obviously take great pride in their highly scientific approach to their products which work “at the deepest or quantum level”, produce a range of pendants which protect the wearer from terrifyingly harmful electromagnetic radiation.

Endorsed by, among others, the Times, the Mail and television’s London Today programme, few could fail to be convinced by the sculpted casing which hides a shiny, symmetrical circuit board. The manufacturer claims that:

The Q-Link acts as a tuning fork that resonates with the ideal frequency at which the body’s own energy system should vibrate.

To me, the method through which this is achieved still seems a little fuzzy, however. The Q-Link Classic, for instance, contains a circuit board with etched pads as expected, in addition to a single component: a zero-ohm resistor. In essence, the pendant contains some metal and a bit of wire, all of which doesn’t actually connect to anything. The product requires no batteries, has a lifetime guarantee, and for up to £119.95, promises to literally do something.

Thankfully, with an order for the Q-Link Polished Silver Pendant, we will never again have to be concerned about the horrific nature of EMF radiation (such as light?). You’re protected. That said, the possibilities to play practical jokes on radiographers who to fail take one visible x-ray while you’re wearing the pendant are limitless.

From the archives: Exposing Alcoholics Anonymous – history and (lack of) effectiveness

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This article originally appeared in The Skeptic, Volume 20, Issue 4, from 2010.

If you have had a serious drinking problem in the United States of America you might have had serious troubles to go along with that problem. You might have a drunken driving conviction, or landed in a hospital or detoxification facility by court order. If any of these things have happened to you, it is almost a certainty that you have been introduced to the programme of Alcoholics Anonymous otherwise known simply as AA. If you have been fortunate enough to have avoided jail or hospitals but have, on your own, sought professional help to stop or to moderate your alcohol consumption, the odds are still very, very high that you have been advised to attend meetings of AA.

The programme of Alcoholics Anonymous, known as a 12-Step Program, is the number one treatment for alcoholism in the US as imposed by the courts and supported by the medical community for the last forty years. Very few health insurance companies will cover alcohol or drug addiction treatment that is not 12-step based. It would be reasonable to assume therefore, as most do, that AA is not only a successful treatment for the alcoholic but is probably the best available today.

Both assumptions are completely unfounded and unsupported by scientific or historical evidence. The truth is that the available evidence strongly suggests that treatment under the AA programme provides very little or no long-term help at all for active alcoholics. Further, there is ample evidence that long term repeated exposure to this programme is actually dangerous to many alcoholics who would have fared better if left on their own.

This is a truly appalling and frightening state of affairs for millions of alcoholics and their loved ones. It means that the medical profession and the court system in the U.S. are directing thousands of sick people each year into a religious-based programme that has little or no merit as a treatment for their illness. It also implies that few serious alternatives are routinely brought to the attention of the troubled alcoholic.

What is Alcoholics Anonymous? Who are its adherents? What are its methods? How has AA become so deeply inculcated into public and professional thinking vis-à-vis the treatment of alcoholism? If it doesn’t work, as I have suggested, why not? What in the world could actually make it dangerous? Is there medical, therapeutic, or psychological treatment involved? Is it entirely based on religious beliefs? What makes it a religious cult?

Alcoholics Anonymous claims to be: “… a fellowship of men and women who share their experience, strength and hope with each other that they may solve their common problem and help others to recover from alcoholism. The only requirement for membership is a desire to stop drinking…. Our primary purpose is to stay sober and help other alcoholics to achieve sobriety.” (A Brief Guide to Alcoholics Anonymous, 1972). These words sound positive and hopeful but they do not describe the true workings or intent of AA.

To be plain, there is ample evidence that Alcoholics Anonymous is in reality a religious cult masquerading as a self-help group. Its adherents actively indoctrinate newcomers to their way of thinking using overt and subtle misinformation, intimidation and false promises. They routinely prey on a population subset of sick people at their weakest, namely, desperate alcoholics. Through ancillary groups like Al-Anon and Alateen, AA also attempts to bring the families of alcoholics into their cult. Unless AA has something tangible, verifiable, and repeatedly helpful to offer these people, this makes them not just deceitful but dangerous.

This might sound like an astounding accusation to anyone who has not been maltreated by AA or studied them carefully. Likewise, you may know seemingly happy recovering alcoholics who swear by the benign and benevolent nature of the AA program. You may be one yourself.

Those who believe they have remained sober solely by strict adherence to the programme of Alcoholics Anonymous, and there are thousands, will generally never have anything but praise for the program. But if thousands have recovered when millions have tried, then the best that can be said is that the success rate is low. The worst that can be said I have already written. For every happily recovering anonymous alcoholic there are hundreds who have found the programme at best worthless and at worst a curse or even a death sentence. Ironically, I have often heard it said in AA meetings that to be successful in one’s recovery, one must “… step over the bodies”.

The first thing one is asked when initiated into AA is to keep an open mind. I agree wholeheartedly. If you are currently trying to remain sober through AA or are of the opinion that it is a good and necessary support programme for alcoholics, I implore you to keep an open mind to the premises already mentioned and the following substantiated facts. They may save your life or that of someone you know. At the very least this knowledge may save you a lot of time and let you find real help sooner.

A Brief History of AA

Alcoholics Anonymous is a largely decentralized organization – a random collection of smaller groups, cofounded in 1935 by Bill Wilson, an unsuccessful stock trader, and Doctor Bob Smith, a surgeon. Bill had suffered for years with ever-advancing and debilitating alcoholism, having lost all ability to earn a living and having been repeatedly institutionalized for detoxification to save his life. By his own account and that of his wife and others, he was a hopeless case destined for death by prolonged alcohol poisoning or commitment to an insane asylum for alcohol-induced dementia known medically as Korsakoff ’s syndrome or wet brain.

One day an old friend and self-admitted fellow drunk, Ebby Thatcher, called and came over to visit Bill at his house. Ebby was clean and sober and told Bill that he had overcome his alcoholism by finding religion. Specifically, he had joined a small sect of evangelical Christians called the Oxford Group founded by Frank Buchman. Though sceptical, Bill attended some church meetings, but still lapsed back into destructive drinking.

During a last-ditch effort to save him, his wife and his brother-in-law sent Bill once again to a medical sanatorium to dry out and receive a multiple drug treatment common in the day that involved administration of various sedatives along with the psychotropic, even hallucination-inducing, drug belladonna.

While under the influence of strong psychotropic drugs, Bill Wilson had a vision of a bright light and the completely and fully to God, and that an important part of his recovery would be to bring the news of his epiphany and recovery to other suffering alcoholics. By all accounts, he never drank alcohol again and spent the rest of his life building and advocating the organization of Alcoholics Anonymous. He is known to have suffered massive depressive episodes during his life but remained sober. He died in 1971 at the age of 75.

Bill Wilson is credited with authoring the eponymous fundamental text of Alcoholics Anonymous generally called The Big Book (Wilson, 1939/2001). In The Big Book, Bill tells his story of recovery and outlines twelve steps by which he believes any alcoholic can recover. In a second book, titled Twelve Steps and Twelve Traditions (Wilson, 2003), Bill elaborates greatly on the twelve steps and adds twelve principles for maintaining the organization of AA. The 12 steps and some of the 12 traditions will be presented here as we examine the methods of AA.

Bill Wilson met Dr. Bob Smith early in his recovery and Dr. Bob also successfully found sobriety by giving his life to God and particularly to Jesus Christ through the Oxford Group. They were two men to whom their personal recoveries were nothing short of miraculous. They set out immediately and with great urgency to spread the word to other alcoholics. As they gathered recruits to their method of alcoholic salvation, regular attendance at highly ritualized meetings of their fellows became an essential aspect of the AA doctrine.

Their recruitment success rate was nearly zero at first. By the time of the writing of The Big Book around 1938-1939, they claimed an active membership of roughly 100. There is scant or little evidence for the general success of the early adherents other than that they regularly attended meetings and kept trying the programme when they relapsed. Still, it appears that there was a substantial dropout rate such that Bill and Dr. Bob had to constantly recruit new members.

By 1939 The Big Book had been published and both Bill Wilson and Dr. Bob were vigorously promoting their programme in other cities with the income from book sales. A glowing account of their efforts by Jack Alexander appeared in an article in the Saturday Evening Post in 1941 after which they began to receive national attention. Around this time they also found support in the person of John D. Rockefeller Jr. With his enormous resources and influence, Rockefeller did much to help keep the fledgling organization alive.

Evidence and Propaganda

These historical facts are not in dispute. The same basic story is available from AA literature or their website http://www.alcoholics-anonymous.org. What is not mentioned but noteworthy is that the medical community at large rejected the AA “cure” for alcoholism at the start. This is understandable because, as we will see, the supposed cure involved appeals to a supernatural agency and all reports of success are entirely anecdotal. Nonetheless, The Big Book opens with a ringing endorsement by one Dr. Robert Silkwood who had worked with alcoholics for years and knew Bill Wilson personally.

Dr. Silkwood was duly impressed with Bill’s recovery and contributed the only medical opinion in the book. Dr. Silkwood also developed a personal theory that alcoholics had acquired an allergy to alcohol – something that is still offered as fact within AA, but has never been endorsed by the medical community. There seems to be no evidence at all to support the allergy theory of alcoholism. Alcoholism was not even medically recognized as a disease until the American Medical Association declared it so in 1956.

Today Alcoholics Anonymous boasts 2 million adherents in over 120 countries worldwide; this from the Fourth Edition, 16th printing in 2005 of The Big Book as well as their website. How they have arrived at this number is unclear, as is their reporting of their rates of success in getting and keeping alcoholics sober. Reliable statistics are notoriously difficult to come by when dealing with drug addicts. Aside from being incarcerated, caught in the act of using, or from reports of associates, or forced chemical tests, one has only the word of the user as to whether or not he or she has remained sober. AA has the additional problem of not keeping track of those who come and go through its meeting doors. Still, in order to find support in the medical community AA has needed to compile some form of statistics on success rates.

Starting in 1964 the Alcoholics Anonymous General Service Organization (GSO) began conducting its Triennial Surveys of their current population and compiling the results. The 1983 report claimed to be the first to use scientific statistical sampling techniques. In that year AA finally employed a professional consultant who introduced them to the statistically valid stratified sampling technique. This indicates that any survey results prior to 1983 were unreliable. Though AA had never before 1983 used valid statistical methods they regularly reported success rates from 25% to 50% or even higher (Comments on AA’s Triennial Surveys, 1990). Thus, for the first 48 years of their existence AA members were simply inventing numbers and spreading them as propaganda throughout the American public consciousness. Ironically, AA is a self-described programme of “rigorous honesty” (Wilson, 1939/2001).

Still, the introduction of valid statistical methods if done properly could have yielded reliable data beginning in 1983. I have had no luck finding continued surveys after 1989, but in that year AA reported that on average, after 6 months, 93 percent of new attendees had left the programme and that after one year only five to seven percent remained (Comments on AA’s Triennial Surveys, 1990). It is unclear whether or not this takes into account those who leave and rejoin the programme repeatedly over years.

The five to seven percent reported for a steady year of sobriety is usually counted as the short-term success rate of the Alcoholics Anonymous program. Taken out to five years it is exceedingly difficult to estimate. Members with decades of sobriety are hard to find and greatly valued as speakers at meetings. Some travel extensively promoting the cause. Others become licensed addiction counsellors and work in facilities that include 12-step initiation. In this way the intra-programme perception of having many old timers is perpetuated.

Independent Investigation

Their own unfavorable statistics do not, however, dissuade AA from continuing to claim great success for their programme. Bill Wilson wrote in The Big Book that, “Rarely, have we seen anyone fail who has thoroughly followed our path. Those who do not recover are those who cannot or will not give themselves completely to this simple program, usually men and women who are constitutionally incapable of being honest with themselves” (Wilson, 1939/2001) On his deathbed he is reported as saying he wished he had written never instead of only rarely. The argument is that many may come through the doors of AA and most may not come back, but those who truly practice the 12 steps always succeed. This is, of course, an argument that can be neither proved nor disproved. It is in no way scientific and, as we shall see, the methods of AA are non-rigorous and subjective because the “cure” involves appeals to supernatural agencies.

A brief history of AA now in place, we turn to the obvious question of independent attempts to validate the success of the treatment scientifically. There have been surprisingly few over 70 years. Still, more and more evidence has come to light that AA simply does not help alcoholics. The Harvard Medical School reported in 1995 evidence that a significant number of problem drinkers recover on their own. They wrote in the Harvard Mental Health Letter in October, 1995: “One recent study found that 80% of all alcoholics who recover for a year or more do so on their own, some after being unsuccessfully treated. When a group of these self-treated alcoholics was interviewed, 57% said they simply decided that alcohol was bad for them. Twenty-nine percent said health problems, frightening experiences, accidents, or blackouts persuaded them to quit. Others used such phrases as ‘Things were building up’ or ‘I was sick and tired of it.’ Support from a husband or wife was important in sustaining the resolution” (Treatment of Drug Abuse and Addiction, 1995).

It is most useful here to present evidence from one of the first large reliably validated scientific studies of its kind, which targeted the programme of Alcoholics Anonymous directly and exclusively. It was performed by Dr George Vaillant, MD, a Harvard psychiatrist and noted authority on the disease of alcoholism, and an open proponent of Alcoholics Anonymous. Dr Vaillant is the author of The Natural History of Alcoholism, a seminal work in the field published in 1983.

Dr Vaillant conducted a study whereby he followed 100 alcoholics consecutively admitted for detoxification to an alcoholism clinic in Cambridge Mass, with which he was associated. The subjects were followed for a period of eight years with status obtained annually after discharge from the clinic.

Though he expected great success through the AA program, he was instead greatly disappointed. His honesty and candor, though, are commendable. Dr Vaillant wrote:

It seemed perfectly clear… by turning to recovering alcoholics [AA members] rather than to PhD’s for lessons in breaking self-detrimental and more or less involuntary habits, and by inexorably moving patients… into the treatment system of AA, I was working for the most exciting alcohol program in the world.

But then came the rub. Fueled by our enthusiasm, I and the [clinic] director, tried to prove our efficacy. Our clinic followed up our first 100 detoxification patients… every year for the next 8 years. The clinic sample results [were] also contrasted with three studies of equal duration that purported to offer no formal treatment. After initial discharge, only 5 patients in the clinic sample never relapsed to alcoholic drinking, and there is compelling evidence that the results of our treatment were no better than the natural history of the disease. […] Not only had we failed to alter the natural history of alcoholism, but our death rate of three percent a year was appalling.

In Orange, no date

Note carefully that in this study of 100 subjects, 3% of these individuals died every year for eight years while actively participating in AA. This means that at the end of the 8th year only 76 of the original test sample remained alive – 24 had died. The random population sample used in the experiment should have been little different than that of the general US population of adults in which approximately 1% die a year from all combined causes (roughly 900 deaths per 100,000 people in 1985). Even taking into account that chronic alcoholics may be in poorer health than the average citizen, 24 dead in only eight years or over 3 times the national average, is an extremely depressing statistic.

Note also that when Dr. Vaillant refers to AA as being no better than the natural history of the disease he means that his studies and others have shown that chronic alcoholics left to their own devices with no intervention at all still recover at the rate of about five percent a year. Interestingly, and what I find confounding, Dr. Vaillant is a secular (non-alcoholic) member on the Board of Trustees of Alcoholics Anonymous World Services, Inc. Despite his failure as a scientist to prove any efficacy whatsoever to the programme, he remains an ardent supporter of Alcoholics Anonymous.

Misdirection, Mind Control and a Higher Power

But the doctor’s attitude is really quite typical of the AA supporter. There are undeniably thousands of individuals within AA at any given time that used to drink chronically but are at present clean and sober. We have seen, though, that many of these would probably have recovered with no help at all. AA members tend to give the credit for their success entirely to the programme. The recovering alcoholic is taught by AA to give all credit to God and AA. They generally oblige, regardless of any other external or internal factors that tend to keep them sober such as an honest desire to be healthy again, or the love and support of their families. AA denies these influences and The Big Book even admonishes AA devotees to put family third after God and AA, and to put everything else in life last.

It is a flawed argument to use a snapshot of the reported success of a population sample to claim overall long-term success for the larger population. The more rigorous and statistically sound approach of Dr. Vaillant and others has repeatedly provided scientifically sound statistics that belie any claims made by those with a vested prejudice for the programme.

This brings us to the next set of fundamental questions. Whether or not AA has ever been shown to work reliably or repeatably, how is it even supposed to work? Is it really a religious cult instead of a cure for alcoholism?

Alcoholics Anonymous claims to be a spiritual, not a religious programme of alcoholic recovery. They claim that the disease of alcoholism is one of Body, Mind, and Spirit. But they focus entirely on the Spirit. Since the 12 steps are essential to understanding the AA philosophy, I present them here as taken directly from The Big Book.              

The 12 Suggested Steps of Alcoholics Anonymous

1) We admitted we were powerless over alcohol – that our lives had become unmanageable.
2) Came to believe that a Power greater than ourselves could restore us to sanity.
3) Made a decision to turn our will and our lives over to the care of God as we understood Him.
4) Made a searching and fearless moral inventory of ourselves.
5) Admitted to God, to ourselves and to another human being the exact nature of our wrongs.
6) Were entirely ready to have God remove all these defects of character.
7) Humbly asked Him to remove our shortcomings.
8) Made a list of all persons we had harmed, and became willing to make amends to them all.
9) Made direct amends to such people wherever possible, except when to do so would injure them or others.
10) Continued to take personal inventory and when we were wrong promptly admitted it.
11) Sought through prayer and meditation to improve our praying only for knowledge of His will for us and the power to carry that out.
12) Having had a spiritual awakening as the result of these steps, we tried to carry this message to alcoholics, and to practice these principles in all our affairs.

I will not attempt to analyze each of these steps in detail. Taken as a whole they are offered as a “suggested” programme of recovery. It is often said to newcomers in AA that they should take what they can use and leave the rest; at least they are told that at first. There is no doubt, however, that the teachings of the 12 steps are intended to be a complete and wholly necessary set of instructions (dare I say Commandments?) for the alcoholic to achieve a lasting sobriety. It is completely obvious by inspection that the steps are a recommended path to theological enlightenment not just sobriety.

These steps are a direct expansion of the principles taught by the Oxford Group founded by Frank Buchman, of which Bill Wilson and Dr. Bob Smith were devoted members. The Oxford Group, incidentally, had no affiliation with the University of Oxford and later changed its name to Moral Re-Armament and later again to Initiatives of Change.

The Oxford Principles
To seek Divine Guidance in all aspects of life
To humble oneself to God and surrender completely to Him
To acknowledge any offenses against others
To make restitution to those sinned against
To promote the group to the public in an evangelical manner

By examination of the existing evidence, if not by their own admission (AA insists it is not a religious programme), AA seems to be a religious sect. They encourage their members to actively seek a personal relationship with God. They advocate intercessory prayer and the confession of sins, and they promote evangelicalism. I and others have gone further and called AA a dangerous religious cult. How do we justify this more pernicious interpretation? Find out in From the archives: Exposing the myth of Alcoholics Anonymous – cult not cure.

References

  • A Brief Guide to Alcoholics Anonymous (1972).
  • Comments on A.A.’s Triennial Surveys (1990). Alcoholics Anonymous World Services, Inc., New York.
  • Orange, A. (n.d.).
  • Treatment of Drug Abuse and Addiction: Part III. (1995). Harvard Mental Health Letter, 12(4), 3.
  • Vaillant, G. (1983). The Natural History of Alcoholism: Causes, Patterns, and Paths to Recovery. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University.
  • Wikipedia (n.d.).
  • Wilson, B. (1939/2001). Alcoholics Anonymous: The Story of How Many Thousands of Men and Women have Recovered from Alcoholism. 4th ed, new and revised. New York: Alcoholics Anonymous.
  • Wilson, B. (2003). Twelve Steps and Twelve Traditions. New York: Alcoholics Anonymous.

From the archives: Inside a Camphill Community

This article originally appeared in The Skeptic, Volume 20, Issue 4, from 2010.

Last year I spent two months inside a Camphill Community along with other volunteers of various ages from around the world, eager to help others and better myself. I was drawn to communal life, but more importantly I was put off by the society in which I grew up.

As a teenage atheist and leftist in the United States I was appalled by the vast increase of religious fervor in public life and by our startling move to the Far Right even during my lifetime. Like so many Americans I was laden with a painful sense of hopelessness. I could only watch television, drink or get high to distract myself. Retreat in one form or another seemed to be the only suitable option.

I was quite enamored with British culture, as well, and wanted nothing more than to see the land which had produced so many of my favorite authors, comedians, rock stars and TV shows. The UK almost seemed (to my naïve self) to be a totally different, more civilized world. So it was that I decided to find someplace in Britain where I could work for food and lodging. In truth I only chose to ‘volunteer’ at the Mount Camphill Community, a school for young adults with special needs in the South-East of England, because it offered the best benefits. In addition to organic food and lovely surroundings, it offers a weekly stipend of fifty pounds, weekend outings and ample time off.

When I arrived I was shocked at how religious the place was. Granted, this was partly my own fault for not looking into it well enough, but their website gives little indication of just how much their beliefs influence most everything they do. There are blessings before and after almost every meal, a strange service on Sundays, and songs and recitations almost every morning. I was berated for not participating in religious rituals and, from even the first meeting I had to sit through about it, the message was clearly join in or leave. In my last meeting I was apologized to for having been given a false impression, and offered airfare home. I declined at first, but subsequently accepted.

When I was encouraged to leave, I was told that even if I sang and recited and smiled during services, ostensibly participating to a full extent, it would still not work because I would be “disapproving on the inside,” whether I knew it or not. There is simply no place for an atheist there. This means that irreligious Brits are funding an institution which would discriminate against them. I was told by the head gardener, whom I worked under, that almost all of their money comes from the government. He also said that I was a cause of concern for some of the “senior co-workers.” The whole place was terribly gossipy and quite often I worried about my words being repeated.

For all these reasons and more I would never want to work at a Camphill Community ever again. The most important reason, however, is that there is no real escape from the alienation of modern life. We literally cannot retreat, and we divert our attention with drugs and other distractions at our peril. The things that give us solace now merely console us to our conditions. They cannot change the fact that, almost a century after Bertrand Russell penned the words, it is still true that “almost all who work have no say in the direction of their work; throughout the hours of labour they are mere machines carrying out the will of a master.” Since then global economic inequality has gotten hideously worse.

Even the Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, who served as the chief economist of the World Bank, writes that the “growing divide between the haves and the have-nots has left increasing numbers in the Third World in dire poverty, living on less than a dollar a day”. UNICEF has reported that over thirty thousand children die every day due to poverty. That is almost eleven million children, every year. The only solution, in my view, is a world-wide revolution. It may not be likely but it is our only hope.

In 1961, the Situationist International said:

If it seems somewhat absurd to talk of revolution, this is obviously because the organized revolutionary movement has long since disappeared from the modern countries where the possibilities of a decisive social transformation are concentrated. But all the alternatives are even more absurd, since they imply accepting the existing order in one way or another.

Yet less than fifty years later there seem to be the beginnings of a new revolutionary movement in the most developed countries, including my own.

More than anywhere else, America is truly the place “where the possibilities of a decisive social transformation are concentrated.” That is why I am excited to be part of the new Students for a Democratic Society. We have thousands of members in hundreds of chapters, and we are not alone. All over the world informed and committed individuals are seeking to achieve direct democracy through direct action. Laid-off workers in Argentina have occupied factories and restarted production, to take only a single instance. We in the wealthy countries bear a great deal of the responsibility for the problems that we see in the world. We must try and help solve them.

The same impulse to lend a helping hand which led me to the Mount now leads me into activist organizations such as SDS, with the hope that it is not already too late. The world is still a brutal place, torn apart by class oppression, racism, sexism, homophobia and horrific violence unleashed by countries such as ours. I believe it will take drastic social change to reverse the environmental degradation that we have caused the earth, and heal the wounds that we have caused each other. I also believe that we have to make it happen, and so I strongly encourage everybody to do what they can to make this a better world, where we and future generations would rather live.

From the archives: Why the quest precision of thought may well prove futile

This article originally appeared in The Skeptic, Volume 20, Issue 4, from 2010.

I do a fair amount of talking in public these days and inevitably I get the occasional bit of audience participation that doesn’t go my way. In Derbyshire this summer, for example, I was told by a perfectly civil and friendly questioner that he had been following my work for some time, thought he knew what my strengths were, and didn’t think my latest book played to them.

At Edinburgh a few months later, an indignant interlocutor informed the entire panel I was sitting on that we were not qualified to say anything on the subject of nature and nurture because we weren’t able to instantly identify Hans Eysenck from his cryptic description. “Is this a crossword puzzle?” the philosopher Simon Blackburn asked him, before getting the right answer.

The crowd at a London Skeptics in the Pub meeting was not nearly so rude or eccentric, but the last question I faced there left me musing for some while. Apparently, in some kind of pre-talk web chat, someone had said that I would be “a good speaker but hard to pin down”. What did I feel about that?

Obviously, I had no quarrel with the first part. But am I hard to pin down? And if so, is that a bad thing?

There are clearly bad ways of being hard to pin down. Being slippery as a means to disguise a deficit of precision or clarity in your own mind is an old trick. Even here, however, it can sometimes be excused. Politicians are masters of this particular game, and sometimes that is for the very good reason that it is too soon to commit either way and leaving options open is the best bet.

A different kind of unpindownability concerns commitment, whether it’s to meet at a certain place or time, pledge yourself to your beloved or say exactly what it is you’ll do if you get elected. People who are persistently elusive in this way are at the very best trying and at worst impossible.

However, sometimes it is good to avoid nailing your flag to a mast. The late Bernard Williams was perhaps the best example of a great thinker who hardly ever took a stance on anything. “There are two subjects on which I’ve had more or less positions, I guess,” he told me when I interviewed him shortly before his death. The reason for this is that he thinks “philosophy starts from realising we don’t understand our own activities and thoughts. I guess what I think most about is opening up ways of showing people that we don’t understand our own thoughts, and then suggesting ways in which we might get a better hold of it.”

That’s the kind of unpindownability I like. It’s not because of any evasion, it’s because what one is trying to do is get people to think better and more clearly about difficult issues, without pretending to resolve them and have a clear position yourself. I think that’s an important philosophical task.

A properly sceptical outlook requires one to be fully aware of what we do not know and to be willing to live with that uncertainty, rather than reach for answers that are not substantiated.

Philosophy itself, however, has not always exhibited wisdom in this regard. In the twentieth century, for example, much British and American philosophy was concerned with replacing the messy vagueness of ordinary language with a purer, more exact language of logic.

The problem is that logic is only precise if it remains entirely a formal matter of syntax and symbols. But to give it content, you have to translate propositions into it from the language of real speech. So, for example, “All true sceptics are careful judgers” can be formalised as (“x)(Fx ® Gx), where F is the property of being a true sceptic and G is the property of being a careful judger. Apparently.

However, nice though it is to have neat symbols you can now get to work on, the fact remains that the properties of being a true sceptic and a good judger are just as imprecise as they were when we started.

No problem, you might think. Let’s just get more precise about them. This philosophers try to do, by specifying the necessary and sufficient conditions of something being whatever it is. Hence we can say that “x is a good judger if and only if …” and then go on to specify what the conditions are.

Alas, this task is also doomed to failure. Sure, you can come up with some good criteria which help pin the concept of good judgement down a little, but it unrealistic to suppose you could ever define such a concept as precisely as, say, water can be defined as H2O. In any case, since you’re always using other words to clarify what you mean, imprecision can never be fully avoided.

So although the project of getting more precise and pinning down as much as possible is a worthwhile one, the fact that some things remain hard to pin down should not be a cause of surprise and alarm.

Incidentally, I was told by a rather drunk skeptic at the end of my talk that some people were muttering that the t-shirt I was wearing was not only an unflattering colour, it also drew attention to my ‘man boobs’. It seems some of my failings are all too easy to pin down.

Deborah Hyde appointed as new Managing Editor

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Deborah HydeThe Skeptic is pleased to welcome author and Deputy Convenor of Westminster Skeptics, Deborah Hyde, as Managing Editor from Volume 23, Issue 2. Deborah succeeds Lindsay Kallis in the role, whose work and creativity have been very valuable during her time working as part of the Editorial Team. Deborah blog regularly as Jourdemayne and posts on Twitter under the same name. She is also due to speak at the Anomalistic Psychology Research Unit on 26/10/2010, giving a talk entitled “Demons and Nightmares: Why do People Believe in the Malign Supernatural?

Deborah can be contacted at deborah [at] skeptic.org.uk.

Newman on Miracles

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Written by Adam Buick. Published for The Skeptic online on 22nd September 2010.

When the Pope visits Britain this year he will “beatify” Cardinal Newman who died in 1890. Beatification, which requires one miracle, is a step towards “canonisation” (becoming a “saint”) which requires two.

John Henry Newman was born in 1801 and became an Anglican clergyman in 1825, but in 1845 he converted to Roman Catholicism and eventually rose to become a Cardinal. He wrote two essays on miracles, one in 1826 (when he was still a Protestant), the other in 1843 (when he was well on the way to becoming a Roman Catholic). The full text of both can be found at http://www.newmanreader.org/works/miracles/index.html#contents.

The first essay expressed the orthodox Anglican/Protestant view on miracles: that the only true miracles are those described in the Bible (and that they are to be accepted as really having happened only because the Bible is the revealed word of God). This position implies that all miracles claimed outside the Bible and any since the first century of the Christian era – as by pagans, the Catholic Church and the Koran – are not miracles and that natural, non-miraculous explanations for them can be found.

In the extract below from the first essay Newman lists what these other causes might be . As will be seen, they are still pertinent and applicable and are in fact applied by sceptics faced with alleged “supernatural” happenings.

The Apollonius he mentioned was a first century Pythagorean holy man who performed the same sort of miracles as the Bible attributes to Jesus. Abbé Paris was a Jansenist (a mainly French Catholic sect) who died in 1727 at the site of whose tomb for some years after miracle cures were said to have occurred.

It is interesting to note that Newman says that the annual liquefaction of the supposed blood of St. Janarius in Naples will have a natural explanation and also that he dismisses as particularly not credible alleged miracles involving prayers and cures (precisely the type of miracle the Catholic Church says he has now got God to work and virtually the only type of miracle it accepts these days).

Adam Buick
Essay on the Miracles of Scripture (extract)

A Miracle, then, as far as it is an evidence of Divine interposition, being an ascertained anomaly in an established system, or an event without assignable physical cause, those facts, of course, have no title to the name—

1. Which may be referred to misstatements in the testimony
1. Such are many of the prodigies of the Heathen Mythology and History, which have been satisfactorily traced to an exaggeration of natural events. For instance, the fables of the Cyclops, Centaurs, of the annual transformation of a Scythian nation into wolves, as related by Herodotus, etc. Or natural facts allegorized, as in the fable of Scylla and Charybdis. Or where the fact may be explained by supplying a probable omission; as we should account for a story of a man sailing in the air by supposing a balloon described.

2. Or where the Miracle is but verbal, as the poetical prodigy of thunder without clouds, which is little better than a play upon words; for, supposing it to occur, it would not be called thunder. Or as when Herodotus speaks of wool growing on trees; for, even were it in substance the same as wool, it could not be called so without a contradiction in terms.

3. Or where the Miracle is one simply of degree, for then exaggeration is more easily conceivable;—thus many supposed visions may have been but natural dreams.

4. Or where it depends on the combination of a multitude of distinct circumstances, each of which is necessary for the proof of its supernatural character, and where, as in fine experiments, a small mistake is of vast consequence. As those which depend on a coincidence of time, which it is difficult for any person to have ascertained. For instance, the exclamation which Apollonius is said to have uttered concerning the assassination of Domitian at the time of its taking place; and, again, the alleged fact of his appearing at Puteoli on the same morning in which he was tried at Rome. Such, too, in some degree, is the professed revelation made to St. Basil, who is said to have been miraculously informed of the death of the Emperor Julian at the very moment that it took place. Here we may instance many stories of apparitions; as the popular one concerning the appearance of a man to the club which he used to frequent at the moment after his death, who was afterwards discovered to have escaped from his nurses in a fit of delirium shortly before it took place, and actually to have joined his friends. We may add the case related to M. Bonnet, of a woman who pretended to know what was passing at a given time at any part of the globe, and who was detected by the simple expedient of accurately marking the time, and comparing her account with the fact. In the same class must be reckoned not a few of the answers of the Heathen Oracles, if it be worth while to allude to them; as that which informed Crœsus of his occupation at a certain time agreed upon. In the Gospel, the nobleman’s son begins to amend at the very time that Christ speaks the word; but this circumstance does not constitute, it merely increases the Miracle. The argument from Prophecy is, in this point of view, somewhat deficient in simplicity and clearness, as implying the decision of many previous questions: such, for instance, as to the existence of the professed prediction before the event, the interval between the prediction and its accomplishment, the completeness of its accomplishment, etc. Hence Prophecy affords a more learned and less popular proof of Divine interposition than physical Miracles, and, except in cases where it contributes a very strong evidence, is commonly of inferior cogency.

2. Those which, from suspicious circumstances attending them, may not unfairly be referred to an unknown cause
1. As those which take place in departments of nature little understood; for instance, Miracles of Electricity.—Again, an assemblage of Miracles confined to one line of extraordinary exertion in some measure suggests the idea of a cause short of divine. For while their repetition looks like the profession, their similarity argues a want, of power. This remark is disadvantageous to the Miracles of the primitive Church, which consisted almost entirely of exorcisms and cures; to the Pythagorean, which were principally Miracles of sagacity; and, again, to those occurring at the tomb of the Abbé Paris, which were limited to cures, and cures, too, of particular diseases. While the Miracles of Scripture are frugally dispensed as regards their object and seasons, they are carefully varied in their nature; like the work of One who is not wasteful of His riches, yet can be munificent when occasion calls for it.

2. Here we may notice tentative Miracles, as Paley terms them; that is, where out of many trials only some succeed; for inequality of success seems to imply accident, in other words, the combination of unknown physical causes. Such are the cures of scrofula by the King’s touch, and those effected in the Heathen Temples; and, again, those at the tomb of the Abbé Paris, there being but eight or nine well-authenticated cures out of the multitude of trials that were made. One of the peculiarities of the cures ascribed to Christ is their invariable success.

3. Here, for a second reason, diffidence in the agent casts suspicion on the reality of professed Miracles; for at least we have the sanction of his own opinion for supposing them to be the effect of accident or unknown causes.

4. Temporary Miracles also, as many of the Jansenist and other extraordinary cures, may be similarly accounted for; for, if ordinary causes can undo, it is not improbable they may be able originally to effect. The restoration of Lazarus and the others was a restoration to their former condition, which was mortal; their subsequent dissolution, then, in the course of nature, does not interfere with the completeness of the previous Miracle.

5. The Jansenist cures are also unsatisfactory, as being gradual, and, for the same reason, the professed liquefaction of St. Januarius’s blood; a progressive effect being a characteristic, as it seems, of the operations of nature. Hence those Miracles are most perspicuous which are wrought at the word of command; as those of Christ and His Apostles. For this as well as other reasons, incomplete Miracles, as imperfect cures, are no evidence of supernatural agency; and here, again, we have to instance the cures effected at the tomb of the Abbé Paris.

6. Again, the use of means is suspicious; for a Miracle may almost be defined to be an event without means. Hence, however miraculous the production of ice might appear to the Siamese, considered abstractedly, they would hardly so account it in an actual experiment, when they saw the preparation of nitre, etc., which in that climate must have been used for the purpose. In the case of the Steam-vessel or the Balloon, which, it has been sometimes said, would appear miraculous to persons unacquainted with Science, the chemical and mechanical apparatus employed could not fail to rouse suspicion in intelligent minds. Hence professed Miracles are open to suspicion, if confined to one spot; as were the Jansenist cures. For they thereby became connected with a necessary condition, which is all we understand by a means: for instance, such may often be imputed to a confederacy, which (as is evident) can from its nature seldom shift the scene of action. “The Cock-lane ghost could only knock and scratch in one place.” The Apostles, on the contrary, are represented as dispersed about, and working Miracles in various parts of the world. These remarks are, of course, inapplicable in a case where the apparent means are known to be inadequate, and are not constantly used; as our Lord’s occasional application of clay to the eyes, which, while it proves that He did not need such instrumentality, conveys also an intimation that all the efficacy of means is derived from His appointment.

3. Those which may be referred to the supposed operation of a cause known to exist
1. Professed Miracles of knowledge or mental ability are often unsatisfactory for this reason; being in many cases referable to the ordinary powers of the intellect. Of this kind is the boasted elegance of the style of the Koran, alleged by Mahomet in evidence of his divine mission. Hence most of the Miracles of Apollonius, consisting, as they do, in knowing the thoughts of others, and predicting the common events of life, are no criterion of a supernatural gift; it being only under certain circumstances that such power can clearly be discriminated from the natural exercise of acuteness and sagacity. Accordingly, though a knowledge of the hearts of men is claimed by Christ, it seems to be claimed rather with a view to prove to Christians the doctrine of His Divine Nature than to attest to the world His authority as a messenger from God. Again, St. Paul’s prediction of shipwreck on his voyage to Rome was intended to prevent it; and so was the prediction of Agabus concerning the same Apostle’s approaching perils at Jerusalem

2. For a second reason, then, the argument from Prophecy is a less simple and striking proof of divine agency than a display of Miracles; it being impossible, in all cases, to show that the things foretold were certainly beyond the ordinary faculties of the mind to have discovered. Yet when this is shown, Prophecy is one of the most powerful of conceivable evidences; strict foreknowledge being a faculty not only above the powers, but even above the comprehension of the human mind.

3. And much more fairly may apparent Miracles be attributed to the supposed operation of an existing physical cause, when they are parallel to its known effects; as chemical, meteorological, etc., phenomena. For though the cause may not, perhaps, appear in the particular case, yet it is known to have acted in others similar to it. For this reason, no stress can be laid on accounts of luminous crosses in the air, human shadows in the clouds, appearances of men and horses on hills, and spectres when they are speechless, as is commonly the case, ordinary causes being assignable in all of these; or, again, on the pretended liquefaction of the blood of St. Januarius, or on the exorcism of demoniacs, which is the most frequent Miracle in the Primitive Church.

4. The remark applies, moreover, to cases of healing, so far as they are not instantaneous, complete, etc.: conditions which exclude the supposition of natural means being employed, and which are strictly fulfilled in the Gospel narrative.

5. Again, some cures are known as possible effects of an excited imagination; particularly when the disease arises from obstruction and other disorders of the blood and spirits, as the cures which took place at the tomb of the Abbé Paris.

6. We should be required to add those cases of healing in Scripture where the faith of the petitioners was a necessary condition of the cure, were not these comparatively few, and some of them such as no imagination could have effected (for instance, the restoration of sight), and some wrought on persons absent; and were not faith often required, not of the patient, but of the relative or friend who brought him to be healed.

7. The force of imagination may also be alleged to account for the supposed visions and voices which some enthusiasts have believed they saw and heard; for instance, the trances of Montanus and his followers, the visions related by some of the Fathers, and those of the Romish saints; lastly, Mahomet’s pretended night-journey to heaven: all which, granting the sincerity of the reporters, may not unreasonably be referred to the effects of disease or of an excited imagination.

8. Such, it is obvious, might be some of the Scripture Miracles; for instance, the various appearances of Angels to individuals, the vision of St. Paul when he was transported to the third heaven, etc., which accordingly were wrought, as Scripture professes, for purposes distinct from that of evidencing the doctrine, viz., in order to become the medium of a revelation, or to confirm faith, etc. In other cases, however, the supposition of imagination is excluded by the vision having been witnessed by more than one person, as the Transfiguration; or by its correspondence with distinct visions seen by others, as in the circumstances which attended the conversion of Cornelius; or by its connection with a permanent Miracle, as the appearance of Christ to St. Paul in his conversion, is connected with his blindness in consequence, which remained three days.

9. Much more inconclusive are those which are actually attended by a physical cause known or suspected to be adequate to their production. Some of those who were cured at the tomb of the Abbé Paris were at the time making use of the usual remedies; the person whose inflamed eye was relieved was, during his attendance at the sepulchre, under the care of an eminent oculist; another was cured of a lameness in the knee by the mere effort to kneel at the tomb. Arnobius challenges the Heathens to produce one of the pretended miracles of their gods performed without the application of some prescription.

10. Again, Hilarion’s cures of wounds, as mentioned by Jerome, were accompanied by the application of consecrated oil. The Apostles indeed made use of oil in some of their cures, but they more frequently healed without a medium of any kind. A similar objection might be urged against the narrative of Hezekiah’s recovery from sickness, both on account of the application of the figs, and the slowness of the cure, were it anywhere stated to have been miraculous. Again, the dividing of the Red Sea, accompanied as it was by a strong east wind, would not have been clearly miraculous, had it not been effected at the word of Moses.

11. Much suspicion, too, is (as some think) cast upon the miraculous nature of the fire, etc., which put a stop to Julian’s attempt to rebuild the Temple at Jerusalem, by the possibility of referring it to the operation of chemical causes.

12. Lastly, answers to prayer, however providential, are not miraculous; for in granting them, God acts by means of, not out of, His usual system, making the ordinary course of things subservient to a gracious purpose. Such events, then, instead of evidencing the Divine approbation to a certain cause, must be proved from the goodness of the cause to be what they are interpreted to be. Yet by supposed answers to prayer, appeals to Heaven, pretended judgments, etc., enthusiasts in most ages have wished to sanction their claims to divine inspiration. By similar means the pretensions of the Romish hierarchy have been supported.


Adam Buick is a retired European civil servant and a member of the Comité Belge pour l’Investigation Scientifique des Phénomènes réputés Paranormaux (www.comitepara.be)

Monster or mirage?

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Written by Alexander T. Lovcanski. Published for The Skeptic online on 30th August 2010.

The initial report and its subsequent versions

On 22 July 1933, a London businessman, George Spicer, with his wife, was driving on the road from Dores to Foyers along the southern shore of Loch Ness (Scotland) when their attention was drawn by an unidentified object which appeared on the road straight ahead. The time was between 1530 and 1600L. Spicer gave his initial account of the incident in a letter to the Inverness Courier (4 August 1933), as follows:

I saw the nearest approach to a dragon or pre-historic animal that I have ever seen in my life. It crossed my road about fifty yards [45 m] ahead and appeared to be carrying a small lamb or animal of some kind.

It seemed to have a long neck which moved up and down in the manner of a scenic railway, and the body was fairly big, with a high back; but if there were any feet they must have been of the web kind, and as for a tail I cannot say, as it moved so rapidly, and when we got to the spot it had probably disappeared into the loch. Length from six feet [1.8 m] to eight feet [2.4 m] and very ugly…

In consecutive retellings of their story, however, the Spicers claimed that what was earlier described as a smaller animal being carried by a monster, was probably ‘a long tail swung round to the far side of the body’, appearing as if it was ‘flopping up and down’ at a place where neck joined the body (Gould 1969:44). Other, more important, discrepancies concern the creature’s length, which was, on recollection, estimated to be at least 7.6 m, and its distance from the witnesses – about 180 m. In another version the monster grew even more, this time to about 10 m (Holiday 1969:31). Its height was guessed at 1.5 m (but see Figure 1).

Fig.1: The Spicers’ sketch of the object they thought they saw on the road (after Gould’s reconstruction) with a corrected object-to-road ratio. The original version is faulty because it is incompatible with the claim that ‘when on the road, it [the creature] took up practically the whole width of it’ (Gould 1969:44). Yet the drawing depicts the object spreading across not only the road, which was allegedly between 3 and 3.6 m wide, but also the grassy verge on either side. This makes the object-to-road ratio inaccurate and the original drawing misleading as the object had to be considerably smaller.

Nor is it clear how the incident ended. According to Gould, the creature was ‘in sight for a few seconds’ before it crossed the road and presumably entered the lake. More peculiar is the subsequent version published by Whyte (1961), where it is said that, by the time the Spicers had reached the spot where they thought the object had been on the road, ‘there was no sign of it’, as if it had suddenly vanished. Furthermore, there are conflicting reports about whether the witnesses had pulled over (Holiday 1969:31) or whether they had just slowed down as they approached the place in question (Gould 1969:46).

Despite these inconsistencies, this remains the first published report of a monster allegedly seen on land (instead of water) and the first one that mentioned a long neck. Prior to it, the eyewitness descriptions varied greatly. But after its publication a dinosaurian image was embedded into the public’s imagination, and many students of the mystery have accepted it as positive evidence of an unknown animal living in Loch Ness.

Location

Unfortunately, the precise location of the encounter is not known. Despite the assistance of George Spicer and Alex Shaw, the latter was road constructor for the Dores area at the time, Gould was unable to determine the exact spot (Gould 1969:46f).

Spicer was sure that they had passed Dores and were on their way to Foyers along the B852. For the most part, this runs parallel to the southern shore of Loch Ness, but he could not remember whether or not they had passed Whitefield when they noticed the object (Ibid.:44). Holiday (1969:30) narrows the spot to just before Whitefield, some 6.43 km from Dores and 12.87 km before Foyers (Figure 2). For all practical purposes, we may regard this general area as the most probable place of the incident.

Fig.2: A plan of the area where the incident allegedly occurred. The Spicers were probably at A when they saw the object at B (some 100 m ahead).

More important are the physical features of the ground where the Spicers claimed they had their encounter. The road had a ‘slight rise’ and the unidentified object was positioned either on top or just behind this rise (Gould 1969:44-5). The Spicers’ account also suggests that there were no turns in the road and that it ran in a straight line prior to the incident. This means that their apparent horizon was between 50 and 200 m head-on, albeit slightly lifted because of the brow.

Unknown animal hypothesis

Many investigators regarded the Spicers’ report as evidence for the existence of some kind of animal unknown to science.

The proposed hypotheses included: an extinct plesiosaur (Northern Chronicle, 9 August 1933); a giant newt (Gould 1969:165); a gigantic version of a 0.35 m segmented invertebrate Tullimonstrum gregarium, known only from the fossil record (Holiday 1969); and a long necked pinniped (Coleman and Huyghe 2003:99-101).

But if the object was an unknown animal 1.5 m high and 7.6 m long (tail and a fully extended neck not included), then it would weigh in at a staggering 10 tonnes (the value derived from the scale model calculation of the volume, which would be 10 m3, and the assumption that its density would be similar to most of the known vertebrates at 1000 kg/m3). How could an aquatic animal the size of two fully grown Indian elephants be able to drag its bulk across roads alongside Loch Ness and remain undiscovered? Could such a beast disappear from view in a matter of seconds?

Evidently, the unknown animal hypothesis raises more questions than it answers, thus а rational explanation is needed.

Explanations

Commenting on the Spicers’ experience, the Inverness Courier (4 August 1933) suggested that what they saw could have been a large otter carrying a young in its mouth. Sceptical authors accepted this explanation (see Burton 161:155; and Campbell 1986:112). Other explanations included a group of deer, feral goats or badgers (Raynor 2005, 2008, 2009), and a hoax (Campbell 2008).

As the creature was 1.8 to 2.4 metres long, it is reasonable to assume that it was in fact a common Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra). The average length of these animals is about 1.1 m, but they are known to reach greater size. According to Holiday (1969:50f), the largest otter recorded in Britain measured 1.67 m, yet Burton claimed that a 2.4 m specimen was caught on the Shetland Islands in the nineteenth century (Welfare 1980:118). The animal (Lontra canadensis) shot in Maine (USA) in 1949 exceeded 1.67 m and may have even been 1.95 m long when alive (Arment 2006).

Mirage hypothesis

The Spicers’ description of an otter suggests the presence of a specific phenomenon which must have grossly distorted the appearance of this animal. There are two principal clues to the identity of that phenomenon: weather conditions on the day of the sighting and the position of the object relative to the observers (the position was dependent on the features of the terrain).

Gould notes that the weather was ‘fine’ at the time of the incident but provides no further description (1969:43). Other sources give more details and state that ‘the sun was shining brightly’ (Cornell 1977:11) indicating that it was a ‘hot July afternoon’ (Shine 2006:7). According to the weather station at Inverness, 18 km north-east, at 0900UT (1000L), the temperature was 16º C but it rose to 18.6º C by 1700UT (1800L) with a total of 3.5 hours of sunshine during the recording period. Visibility was very good, varying from 20.1 to 50 km with medium amount of cloud (4/8). At 1700UT a light wind (force 1) was blowing from the south-west (240º) and the pressure was 1019.6 mb (data from the UK Meteorological Office). Evidently, the weather was very quiet and ‘uneventful’ that day, and the conditions may have been similar over a wider area, including Whitefield. In fact, the air temperature on Loch Ness may have been slightly higher due to the lake’s ability to retain a lot of heat (microclimatic effect). This assumption is strengthened by the fact that the sun was still very high in the sky (at 45º altitude) in the south-west direction (azimuth of 230º) at 1545L when the Spicers saw the object.

As the hot road is radiating heat (accumulated throughout the day) the air in the first few centimetres above the road becomes significantly warmer than the air above it. The colder layer is formed partly because of the temperature drop-with-height and partly due to the cooler air blown-over by a light SW wind from the surrounding hillside of Whitefield. These conditions would generally produce a large temperature-lapse, which could cause abnormal optical refraction. Optical refractive-index (n) is dependent on temperature but also on pressure; the higher the pressure, the higher the n (at the time, the pressure was almost 1020 mb). In fact, large n is necessary for an inferior mirage to occur.

Aside from meteorological factors, mirages also require specific terrain conditions – these were present at the time of the Spicers’ sighting.

The Spicers were driving an Austin (open) 12 hp, which means that their eye-level was at around 1.5 m above the road (an average Austin model from the 12/4 series had a seat-height at 0.86 m from the ground [Smith 2008]). The road ahead was gently upwards sloping before it gradually dipped. It was this rise that caused the apparent horizon to seem closer to the observers than it otherwise would; and it also could have made an otter appear taller. Because the source was near the horizontal plane of view of the observers, the optical path length through the intervening atmosphere was significant. As the distance was probably between 100 and 200 m, the object at the horizon was viewed from a low angle and this had a profound effect on the interpretation of the sight.

Although it is generally recognized that mirages could explain some lake monster sightings (see for example Gould 1969:108, 110-2; Lehn 1979; Shine and Martin 1988:164-7), only Maurice Burton and Adrian Shine have considered atmospheric refraction phenomena as a possible explanation for the Spicers’ report. Burton once suggested (Holiday 1969:50-1) that the object was an otter seen ‘under mirage conditions’ but he neither demonstrated this nor was he consistent because he also claimed that the sighting was caused by ‘a family of otters crossing the road’ (Burton 1961:155). Nor did Shine elaborate in detail his opinion that the ‘writhing shapes seen by the Spicers across hot tarmac’ were the result of a ‘heat haze’ (Shine 2006:13). In any case, ‘heat haze’ is not a mirage, although it too may have caused distortions of view (see below).

As indicated, the atmospheric conditions were such as to create a curved temperature profile that acted like a natural ‘lens’. Near the road surface ‘the [atmospheric] lens is very strong, so its focal length is small compared to the distance from observer to object’ (Young 2008), and it is here where the identical but inverted image of an otter below its geometrical position was created (the area where rays from the top and the bottom of the object intersect) (Figure 3). The otter’s lower parts (i.e. its legs) must have been out of sight because they were below the apparent horizon; thus only its body and tail remained visible. Consequently, the inverted image also contained only these features. The two images merged (at the ‘fold line’) into one and produced the appearance of a single, relatively tall, and roundish object with a substantial extension.

Fig.3: The geometry of an inferior mirage in the Spicers’ case. Light rays that are reflected from the caustic produce the inverted image (X′) of those parts that are above this discontinuity in the thermocline (X). The lower parts of an otter are below the apparent horizon, hidden by the dip (D) in the sloping road. Not to scale.

The imaging properties of a lens produce not only distortions but magnifications as well. Magnification in a vertical plane would have occurred at the ‘transition zone’ where the upright and inverted images joined. Because the Spicers were situated very low (relative to the object) their eye level was closer to the ‘lens’ at the horizon. Of course, the closer the lens, the more powerful it becomes and, thus, subtends a large angle at the eye. Consequently, the resultant image was vertically stretched at a place of mergence, making it look taller than the original source (see Figure 4). In fact, we may deduce that the image’s angular height (0.22º) was more than two times as much as that of the otter if viewed from the same distance (say 100 m) under normal atmospheric refraction. This means that the object looked at least 0.4 m tall for a given distance, and may have even appeared taller if the estimated distance was exaggerated. Its angular length would be over 1º, which may seem small but in reality objects near horizon appear much bigger due to the optical illusion effect (induced by a mirage and other factors) (see Figure 5).

Fig.4: Diagram showing how the upright (Y) and inverted (Y′) images merge to form a single ‘monster-like’ object. The line of mergence is actually a continuous transition zone where an appreciable vertical magnification occurs (because a single point on the object appears to fill the aperture of the atmospheric ‘lens’). An atmospheric disturbance caused by convection from the heated ground is being propagated by the southerly wind flow. It is this mechanism that produces undulating appearance of the tail and the pulsating movement of the body.

Fig.5: How the image would actually have appeared at a range of 100 m. Because the eyewitnesses were moving during the observation, their field of view (FoV) was slightly reduced from the average 180º x 150º (the so-called ‘tunnelling effect’), which made the object seem larger than if viewed from a stationary position.

As for the ‘undulating’ appearance of the ‘neck’ and the ‘jerky’ movement of the body, the ‘heat haze’ effect (more adequate term would be the ‘small-angle scattering’ or ‘angle-of-arrival-fluctuations’) seems to have been responsible. Actually, this is what astronomers call ‘scintillation’ where ‘a refractive-index undulation in the atmosphere acts as a lens, focusing the starlight’ and so magnifying the stars which seem to exhibit motion (Dravins et al. 1997:177). The undulations in the observed image were produced by the constant (but irregular) flux of warm and cold air, where the former rises and the latter descends, causing apparent frequency of the undulations. Any image viewed through this turbulence will appear to vibrate because of the angular deviations in the light path. The otter’s tail was positioned lower than the rest of the body where such turbulence would be at its strongest, and this is why it appeared to undulate, albeit not as much as it is shown in Gould’s exaggerated drawing. This mechanism could have caused brief magnification of the image as well.

Small-angle scattering might have also been responsible for the ‘motion’ of the object which seemed to move in ‘jerks’. The Spicers reported that the ‘monster’ was crossing the road from left to right (from SE to NW), heading towards the water (see Figure 2). But this would mean that the otter was going backwards. The confusion about the movement comes from misinterpretation of the tail as being a ‘neck’. In fact, the otter must have travelled from NW to SE, away from the lake, but due to the southerly wind, the unsteady air flows above the road were channelled to N, NW direction. Thus, a ‘trembling’ motion flowing from left to right was exhibited across the image, and this gave the illusion of physical movement.

The mirage hypothesis can also explain the subsequent sudden disappearance of the ‘monster’. If the distance to the object, when first seen, was some 100 m and the Spicers were driving at 32 km/h rate (Whyte 1961:77), then they would have reached the spot in 11.25 s. This is far too short a time for a 10 t animal to just ‘vanish’. Instead, the restricted geometry between the observers, mirage image and a source (otter), made the observed image to disappear abruptly by moving to higher (closer to the source) ground (exceeding the critical angle of view). By the time the Spicers have arrived to the place where they thought the animal had been it was gone. In vain they may have inspected the area on the right side of the road trying to find their ‘monster’. Had they bothered to look for it on the left side, perhaps, they would have sighted their quarry – an ordinary river otter.

Conclusions

Evidently the observers saw an inferior mirage of a large otter which momentarily crossed the road. Such a mirage completely explains the object’s appearance (its shape) and its size. The reported movements of the image are satisfactorily explained by a constant heat flux above the ground (producing small-angle scattering effect) and the prevailing flow of wind.

Mirages are not optical illusions but can elicit them so that the observer is mistaken about the true nature of the observed image and its source. This is especially true if the observers are in a state of expectancy as was probably the case with George Spicer and his wife. Obviously, they have been misled by a combination of ordinary meteorological and zoological stimuli.

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Acknowledgments: I acknowledge the assistance of Steuart Campbell, Hazel Clement, Richard H. Raynor, Frank Smith, Nick Sucik, Mirjana Trivich and Professor Andrew T. Young.