One of the main lessons I’ve learned as a skeptical investigator is to always keep my eyes open for what pseudoscientific services are out there, because even relatively innocuous leads can be followed to surprisingly serious conclusions.
Take, for example, an exhibition booth at the Get Well Show, the alternative medicine conference that took place in London in June. The stand promoted Master Sha Tao Centre, and was staffed by devotees who happily explained to me and to Deputy Editor Alice Howarth about the wonderful calming influence of practicing Tao Calligraphy. Sadly, their efforts to persuade us to sit in on a demonstration were in vain, given that every session seemed to take place at the least convenient time possible, but I was persuaded to sign up for their mailing list, in exchange for a bag of promotional materials.
The Master Sha Tao Centre is run by Dr Zhi Gang Sha, who qualified from Xi’an Medical College with a medical degree in 1983, and in 1986 with a degree in acupuncture. He became the lead acupuncturist for the World Health Organisation – at least, according to his Wikipedia page. However, at the time of researching this article, Wikipedia could only source that claim to an interview he gave to Western Australia Today during his 2014 tour of Australia, where his interviewer, Sarah Berry, writes:
Yet, Sha’s credentials are far from shonky. He is a doctor of Western medicine and traditional Chinese medicine. He is also a grandmaster of Tai Chi, was the lead acupuncturist for the World Health Organisation, has been named Qigong Master of the Year and in 2006 was awarded the Martin Luther King Jr. Commemorative Commission Award for his humanitarian efforts.
It is unclear where this claim came from, as there’s no sign anywhere else on the internet of Dr Sha performing that role for the World Health Organisation, or even of that role existing – certainly, the WHO makes no mention of it anywhere on their website. Keen to get to the bottom of the claim, I called the media department of the World Health Organisation, and I spoke to Dr Fadéla Chaib, who told me that, to the best of her knowledge, no such role has ever existed within the WHO. I also contacted Sarah Berry of Western Australia to ascertain where she heard of the lead acupuncturist claim, but received no response.
Sha’s other credentials seem equally erratic. He did indeed win Qigong Master of the Year, as his own website claims:
He is a grandmaster of several Asian arts and in 2002 was named Qigong Master of the Year at the Fourth World Congress on Qigong.
However, somewhat curiously, a cached version of the website for the World Congress on Qigong has Dr Sha taking home the presumably-coveted gong in 2004, rather than 2002, at the fifth World Congress on Qigong and TCM, rather than the fourt (joining such illustrious company as Humanitarian Award of the Year winner, Deepak Chopra):
How concerned should we be that Dr Sha misremembers when he won an award so prestigious that he references it in promotional interviews? It’s hard to say. Just as it’s difficult to ascertain whether Dr Sha did indeed receive “the Martin Luther King Jr. Commemorative Commission Award for his humanitarian efforts” in 2006 – again, outside of references on websites controlled by Dr Sha, there appears to be no corroboration of this prestigious award, and I await a response from the Commission to confirm it.
What is unequivocally clear about Dr Sha is that he is a prolific spiritual guru: according to his Wikipedia page, he has written twenty-four books, twenty of which have been published, and ten of which have been New York Times bestsellers. His own website suggests this is out of date, claiming that he’s penned thirty books (it doesn’t specify how many of which were published), eleven of which were New York Times bestsellers. Whatever the numbers, he has undeniably written a lot of books, many of which have sold very well – and at least one of which he was happy to give away, for free, to me.
Greatest Forgiveness
“Greatest Forgiveness: Bring joy and peace to your life with the power of unconditional forgiveness”, was published in 2019 by BenBella Books, and consists of 127 pages, with fewer than 130 words per page. It’s unclear if this bitesize format of under 17,000 words is indicative of Sha’s broader work, but if it is, it’s easy to see how it might be possible for one man to pen 30 books – especially given how impressively repetitive Sha manages to be within Greater Forgiveness’ limited wordcount.
The book promises to help the reader “experience inner peace, true freedom, and joy”. Having read it cover to cover over the course of an hour or so, I have to admit I felt unmoved. Sha explains that “every system, every organ, every cell, every DNA, and every RNA in the body is made of Shen Qi Jing”, with Shen being the soul, heart and mind. Chi being energy. Jing is matter.
why do people get sick? Why do people have relationship challenges? Why do people have financial and business challenges? White people have challenges in various aspects of their lives? In one sentence: challenges in any aspect of life are due to negative Shen Qi Jing
Given that every bad thing in your life is attributable to negative Shen Qi Jing, the reader might be understandably keen to know how to improve one’s Shen Qi Jing – the answer, at least according to this book, is radical forgiveness:
Research studies have shown that forgiveness reduces stress and can transform health. If we cannot forgive and are bound by our resentment, bitterness, desire for revenge, and more, it is we who suffer. When we say stuck in our pain and negativity, we can very easily create even more negativity through our thoughts and words… There is an ancient saying before you embark on a journey of revenge dig two graves
To be clear, the advice to “dig two graves” does not mean that if you do kill someone as part of a revenge plot, make sure to take out any witnesses.
The book explains that if you want to be well, you have to immediately forgive everybody for everything at all times, or you won’t heal. Which is to say, if you don’t forgive everything immediately, you are therefore complicit in your ill health or poor finances or mental ill-health or anything else. If you are ever reluctant to forgive someone, it’s your own fault when something bad happens to you.
Dr Sha’s radical forgiveness is achieved via five “power techniques”. The first is Body Power where you place your finger on a certain part of your body in order to unlock energy. The book, in a move a cynic might suggest is designed to pad out the page count, includes diagrams showing exactly where that finger must be placed.
Alongside the Body Power, readers are guided on activating Tracing Power: the process of connecting with and tracing Tao Calligraphy in the air. According to the book, unnamed scientists and unreferenced clinical researchers have found Chinese calligraphy handwriting has positive effects on behavioural and psychosomatic disorders:
depressive symptoms in cancer patients, psychiatric and cognitive disorders in elderly people, stress levels, hyperarousal symptoms after earthquake, changes in theta waves, and diseases such as hypertension and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.
To make it work, you make a gesture with your hand in a shape like a hand puppet, with the four fingers pinching together at the thumb:
And then you use your hand in that shape to trace out the calligraphy of some Chinese characters:
All the reader then needs to do is chant a special mantra, and trace this path for at least 10 minutes. The longer they chant and trace, the better the result they could receive. If you have chronic serious anger issues, the book specifically advises tracing for a total of two hours per day while chanting: “I forgive you unconditionally. You forgive me unconditionally. Bring love, peace, and harmony.”
Tao Chanting
Chanting and signing forms a big part of the Dr Sha methodology – so much so that his free promotional pack includes a CD of music and chanting, designed for the user to sing along to.
Specifically, the free CD was the “Love Peace Harmony: Chanting for World Peace” refrain – part of Sha’s project to bring about world peace by having 1.5 billion people regularly chant this specific mantra for 15 minutes every single day by the year 2030.
Keen to hear the chant that was destined to bring peace to the globe, I popped the CD into my computer – at which point iTunes popped up and recognised the disk as a 1980s German spoken-word sci-fi radio play called Perry Rhodan Mutaten.
Fortunately, the chanting on the CD wasn’t actually in German – but nor was it in English, Mandarin, or Cantonese. Instead, the chant was written in Sha’s own soul language, as follows:
Lu la Lu la Lee Lu la Lu la La Lee Lu la Lu la Lee Lu La Lu la Lee Lu la Lu la Lee Lu la
While Sha’s soul language bears none of the hallmarks of traditional language, he insists this translates to:
I love my heart and soul I love all humanity Join hearts and souls together Love peace and harmony Love peace and harmony
Calligraphy for abundance and health
World Peace isn’t the only thing that can apparently be accomplished by chanting Dr Sha’s magical mantras. According to the New York Times’ Bestselling Author, you can improve your personal finances by engaging with his various self improvement practices and course. The website for the Master Sha Tao Centre – the organisation who exhibited at the Get Well Show in London – features a “Spiritual Way for Financial Abundance” Zoom course, promising people that they could “take action and finally be in charge of financial flourishing” and “Discover the secrets of manifesting the financial success you wish for to increase the positive difference you can make in the world.”
Times are hard right now, with the cost of living crisis, and people are struggling to feed themselves and pay their mortgages, which is why it might seem odd that Master Sha is willing to sell the mystical chant to solve financial hardship for just £180 per level, across the two-level course.
It is tempting to suggest that anyone who is willing to pay hundreds of pounds in order to learn how to chant away their financial woes can’t have had many financial woes to begin with, but the sad reality is that in desperate times people will make ill-advised sacrifices in order to afford something they’ve been promised is the miracle they’re looking for. This is a reality that might be hard to understand for someone who can pop together a book of under 20,000 words and watch their international followers bulk-buy it until it reaches the New York Times’ bestseller list.
If that sounds distasteful, the health claims made in Sha’s books will leave an even worse taste in the mouth. The Greater Forgiveness book has a whole list of things that can be fixed by chanting, including depression, anxiety, worry, disease, pain, tumours, and cancer. It explicitly says in the book:
for chronic and serious for example life threatening conditions chant and trace for a total of two hours per day.
In fact, the large pamphlet I was given in the promotional pack contains a testimonial from a cancer patient who had lung cancer in 2017, and a month after diagnosis they started reading some of these books and doing the chanting and the tracing of calligraphy. A year later, the tumour had shrunk to a third of its size, so their oncologist decided they no longer needed further treatment.
A calligraphic cure for cancer?
As remarkable as these claims were, I had to check them out for myself, which is why I gave a call to the phone number on the Master Sha Tao Centre’s website. In a ten-minute phone call, I explained to them that I’d seen their exhibition stand in London, and that it came to mind now that a friend of mine had cancer, and that I was curious to know whether Tao Calligraphy could be as helpful for her as it had been for the people in the book.
Immediately, the person on the phone asked me, “Is she prepared to do some work? And by work, meaning tracing… because if it’s a serious condition, we’d recommend 2-4 hours of work that you can do. So if she can do it herself as a schedule to have these hours and then bonus hours as well. So, doing tracing, plus forgiveness practices, plus also attending Tao Calligraphy sessions on the webcasts”.
I asked if she was referring to the free webcasts. “No, these are the paid ones. £60 per month, you get about 12-15 sessions a month… 3 times a week… Obviously we don’t give promises and guarantees that she’ll recover, because that depends very much on how much work she’s also putting in. It’s like if you go to the gym and expect instant results within the first day, it’s not going to happen. You have to put in some work, dedicated hours. If it’s cancer I’d truly recommend 2-4 hours practice every single day”.
It surprised me how willing representatives from the Master Sha Tao Centre were to advise over the phone on how to chant away cancer. It seemed I wasn’t the first person to have asked her about it: “Even in London last year somebody had stage cancer – fourth stage – and they put in four hours [a day] minimum and they recovered I think within six months. But they still continue their practise, probably not four hours every day, but maybe two to three hours a day, because it keeps it away. Because even if you recover you could still be hit by something else, so we’d always recommend don’t stop your practises, even just one hour a day is recommended.”
As well as chanting, she told me that to really heal from cancer, I’d need to buy some spiritual treasures. “You buy some spiritual treasures, invoke them every day, and they jumpstart your healing, they’re like a rocket ship….”. She told me that these spiritual treasures were divine, and specific – if someone had cancer of the intestines, there is a specific spiritual treasure that could be purchased and invoked to heal the intestines, which would transmit positive information. This, she explained, was because “cancer is negative information… not just from this lifetime, but past lifetimes as well, of our souls – they carry all this negative information”.
Unsurprisingly, I was keen to understand the pricing structure of this divine healing. Basic treasures, I was told, started at £60 each, but “if it’s a gong healing blessing that’s recommended, that’s a higher fee, because gong healing is the highest blessing right now”. She did, however, explain that it wasn’t a one-off purchase: “Some people can get 6 treasures, some people get 12-30 treasures, depending on how much heaven wants to release”.
On top of the prospect of a £360-£1800 spiritual treasure bill, there were of course other costs to consider: “first off I’d recommend a consultation, that would help the person to understand, because the master will relay something else… and I know that the calligraphy session would be a priority as well.” The consultation, I was told, would cost £420 per hour. Plus £360-£1800, plus £60 per month – the cost of this spiritual healing for a prospective cancer patient was really adding up.
And, of course, if Dr Sha’s miracle healings never takes place, and if his promises of wealth and abundance turn out to be nothing but hot air and flim flam designed to sell books and expensive ‘spiritual treasures’, at least he’s his followers are trained to believe in radical forgiveness. And, according to Sha’s own philosophy, anyone who doesn’t forgive him has earned whatever bad things might befall them.
When I first submitted this article to The Skeptic just before Christmas, the word “not” did not appear in the title. Read on for clarification.
A few months ago, I received a letter from Andrew Entwistle, Chair of Trustees of the British False Memory Society (BFMS), the contents of which saddened me greatly. The letter informed me that the BFMS was to be wound down by the end of last year. Like many other small charities, the BFMS has been struggling financially for some time. I have been a member of the Society’s Scientific and Professional Advisory Board since 2003 and thus I have personally witnessed the valuable work that the BFMS has carried out over a long period. The society was founded in 1993 by Roger Scotford, originally under the name Adult Children Accusing Parents (ACAP).
It was founded to offer support and advice to parents whose adult children had accused them of childhood sexual abuse having apparently recovered the memories of such abuse during psychotherapy. Prior to the therapy, the accusers had no memories of ever being thus abused, this being explained by appealing to the psychoanalytic notion of repression. This is the idea that when someone experiences an extremely traumatic event, such as sexual abuse, an automatic psychological defence mechanism kicks in and pushes the traumatic memories into a non-conscious part of the mind where they can no longer be accessed.
It is claimed that these repressed memories can still result in a range of psychological problems including anxiety, depression, eating disorders, and so on. It is further claimed that psychological health can only be regained by recovering these memories and ”working through” them. The only problem is that, despite widespread levels of belief in such notions amongst both professionals and the general public (French & Ost, 2016), most memory experts are dubious regarding the very notion of repression.
It is vitally important to note that cases such as these, where an adult apparently recovers memories of abuse having previously had no such memories, constitute only a small fraction of allegations of sexual abuse. In the vast majority of cases, genuine victims of such abuse remember it only too well, sometimes suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder as a result. The main exception would be when the abuse takes place at such a young age that no memories of it are retained as a result of the well-documented phenomenon of childhood amnesia.
From the outset, the BFMS has always acknowledged that there is absolutely no reason to believe that most claims of sexual abuse are based upon false memories. Equally, there can be no doubt at all that a minority of cases are indeed based upon apparent memories for events that never actually happened at all. It is this minority of cases that is of concern to the BFMS and the BFMS can be justifiably proud of its track-record in providing support to those who find themselves facing such accusations. It was for this reason that I was so delighted to receive an email from Kevin Felstead, Director of Communications at BFMS, informing that the BFMS had unexpectedly been left £50,000 in the will of a deceased member. This minor Christmas miracle means that the BFMS will be able to continue to operate for the time being, albeit at a reduced level of service.
Members of the Scientific and Professional Advisory Board of the BFMS are sometimes called upon to act as expert witnesses on memory in that minority of cases where a lawyer believes that there is a possibility that historic allegations may be based upon false memories. I have myself acted in this capacity on several occasions. It is, of course, usually impossible, in the absence of any other evidence, to know for sure whether a historic allegation of abuse is true, a deliberate lie, or based upon a false memory. But there are a number of ‘red flags’ to look out for that at least raise the probability that an allegation may based upon a false memory.
The first of these is whether the memory in question is reported to be continuous (that is, to have always been available to conscious recall) as opposed to being a recovered memory. If it is claimed that the memory has been recovered, either as a result of therapy or spontaneously, after a long period of being inaccessible, this raises the probability that it may be a false memory.
Next, was the memory recovered by the use of dubious memory recovery techniques such as hypnotic regression (French, in press) or guided imagery? We know, on the basis of solid evidence from controlled experimental studies, that such techniques can lead to the formation of false memories so any reports based upon the use of such techniques must be treated with great caution.
Attention must also be paid to the question of whether any reports were the result of inappropriate interviewing techniques. This is particularly problematic when interviewing children or vulnerable adults. Such individuals may take repeated questioning as an indication that their initial denials that any abuse occurred is the ‘wrong’ answer and thus end up giving the answer that they think their interrogator wants to hear. They may then eventually become convinced that they were indeed the victims of abuse.
The role of the expert witness in such cases is simply to assess the available evidence as objectively as possible and to draw attention to the presence or absence of such red flags. It is not the job of the expert witness to make any sort of pronouncement regarding the guilt or innocence of the accused. That is the job of the jury. On more than one occasion, I have indicated in my reports that I could not see any evidence that increased the probability that a reported memory was indeed false.
Cases such as these are always highly emotionally charged and miscarriages of justice can easily occur. Given the fact that the abuse is alleged to have occurred many years ago, typically behind closed doors, it is highly unlikely that there will be any physical forensic evidence to inform the decision-making. This undoubtedly means that actual abusers are often not convicted simply on the basis of insufficient evidence. For genuine victims, this must be absolutely devastating. However, even in that minority of cases where the allegations are actually based upon false memories, a “not guilty” verdict is just as devastating to the complainant. Even though they may not have actually been abused, they sincerely believe that they were – but at least the wrongly accused does not end up with a prison sentence and a criminal record.
Of course, every case is unique, and the degree to which the available evidence suggests that historic allegations are likely to be based upon false memories can range from not at all to highly likely. Each and every case deserves the most careful consideration of the evidence given the effects of the verdict on those concerned. In future articles for the Skeptic, I intend to discuss further some of my experiences in working as an expert witness on memory.
References
French, C. C. (in press). Hypnotic regression and false memories. In Ballester-Olmos, V. J., & Heiden, R. W. (eds.). The Reliability of UFO Witness Testimony. UPIAR.
French, C. C., & Ost, J. (2016). Beliefs about memory, childhood abuse, and hypnosis amongst clinicians, legal professionals and the general public. In R. Burnett (ed.). Wrongful Allegations of Sexual and Child Abuse. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Pp. 143-154.
There is a phenomenon peculiar to long and deep narrow lakes used by heavy vessels. All sizeable vessels create a wake in deep water if travelling at a constant speed: firstly, a disturbance created by the screw propellers, trailing in line behind the vessel, and secondly, a wake created by the bows, spreading out both sides at a particular angle. This is known as the Kelvin wake, and is always at an angle to the direction of the vessel of 19.5 degrees.
An example of a Kelvin wake
How the ripples in a Kelvin wake can appear from a low angle
The wavefront of a Kelvin wake is complicated, consisting of a series of waves apparently travelling at an angle to the wake itself. This accounts for the series of peaks in the above photo. They themselves can be mistaken for a ‘monster’.
The above pictures do not show a screw wake, but below is Tim Dinsdale’s picture of what he thought was Nessie. It shows a motor boat, not a large vessel, displaying both Kelvin wake and a screw wake.
The phenomenon I refer to is caused by the fact that, in such lakes, particularly if they have steep shores, wakes will be reflected back. Loch Ness is a prime example. A reflected Kelvin wake can then, travelling back from the shore as if they themselves came from a vessel, interfere with the vessel’s own wakes, even with the screw wake. The result can be what we might call a ‘standing wave’: a wave maintaining its appearance, appearing to have its own identity and movement as it is continually fed by various wakes. However this phenomenon needs an almost flat calm water surface, in what some call ‘Nessie weather’. Nessie sightings often occur in calm weather, because that is when these wake effects can be seen.
Such an explanation has also been postulated for Ogopogo, the phenomenon of Lake Okanagan in Canada. In calm conditions a wake may travel a great distance. In fact, there is a type of wave called a soliton that travels great distances without losing much energy; it was first noticed on a canal near Edinburgh when a barge stopped suddenly.
When a water wave reaches shallow water, it breaks when the bottom of the energy system is forced up by the shelving bottom. A large vessel can cause a deep wave disturbance that may not be visible until it is forced to break in shallows, at which point a sudden upheaval may occur. Conditions for such upheavals exist at Loch Ness at both ends, as well as in the middle at Urquhart Bay.
One of the major causes of Nessie-like wakes on Loch Ness was British Waterways’ converted ice-breaker tug Scot II, which operated on the Caledonian Canal from 1931. From 1960 to 1991, it carried tourists on cruises according to a strict timetable. It is no longer on the Canal.
‘Standing waves’ through the years
There are many Nessie reports that could reasonably be explained by ‘standing waves’ (I use inverted commas because this term has a different meaning in physics). For example:
On 24th June, 1933, a squad of workmen engaged on blasting operations near Abriachan on the north shore of Loch Ness were startled to see what they took to be the ‘monster’ going up the centre of the lake in the wake of a passing drifter. They said it had an ‘enormous head and a large heavy body’.
Alex Campbell, the man who started the Nessie legend, was out rowing in his boat opposite the Horseshoe (Scree) on a ‘beautiful’ (and therefore, we might assume, calm?) summer day in 1955 or 1956 when the boat suddenly started to heave underneath him. He was terrified. The boat seemed to rise and then stagger back almost immediately.
In 1926, Simon Cameron was watching two gulls skimming the surface near Cherry Island when the gulls suddenly rose screaming into the air. Then something like a large, upturned boat rose from the depths with water cascading down its sides. Just as suddenly, it sank out of sight.
At around 8.15pm on 22nd July, 1930, three young anglers (one was Ian Milne, who later kept a gunsmith’s shop in Inverness) were fishing in a dead calm of Tor Point near Dores when they heard a great noise and saw much commotion in the water about 600 metres away down the lake (southwards). This commotion, throwing spray up into the air, advanced to within 300 metres of their boat and then seemed to turn aside into the bay above Dores. Their boat rocked violently as a 75 cm-high wave passed. They claimed that, although they detected a wriggling motion, the wash hid the ‘creature’ from view. Milne stated that the object travelled at a speed of 7 metres per second with an undulating motion; he compared it to an enormous conger eel, and was sure that it was neither a seal nor an otter.
Colonel Patrick Grant was driving north out of Fort Augustus, past Cherry Island, at around midday on 13th November, 1951, when he saw a great disturbance in the water about 150 metres from the shore. About 2 metres of some black object was showing about 30 centimetres out of the water, but as he looked, it disappeared only to reappear a moment later at least 100 metres away and nearer the shore. The speed of movement was very great.
Just before his retirement, Alex Campbell claimed to have seen Nessie again as he was passing Cherry Island. He saw just one hump about 2.4 metres long and half as high that ‘shot off’ to the other side of the lake at a great speed, leaving a large wash.
On 31st August, 1979, Muriel Clark and Isobel MacLeod were passing Temple Pier when they noticed a man studying the water through binoculars. On looking across to the Bay, they saw a large disturbance on the surface; huge waves were crashing towards the road. As they stopped the car and got out, they saw ‘a huge head’ and what looked like the coil of a snake, and, below the waterline, the outline of a huge body. They thought that the ‘head’ was flat and parallel to the water, large and snake-like. In only a few seconds, the phenomenon disappeared, going down ‘like a sub-marine’. This was around 4pm.
Complications set in when two wakes intersect; even though the individual wakes may not have been very obvious, when they cross constructive interference can cause an obvious hump of water that will move in a direction different from that of either wake, appearing to make its own wake. Such a hump, after appearing to remain stationary for some time, can suddenly leap forward across the water, giving the impression of a bow wave and following wake. Very impressive ‘monsters’ with one or more humps can be formed and the effect can occur up to half an hour after a boat had passed. In spite of regular traffic through Loch Ness, it was rare enough to take even the most experienced observers by surprise.
British Waterways’ Chief Engineer in Scotland (R B Davenport) had seen Nessie-like wave interference effects on Loch Ness. He noticed that an “eruption of humps” occurred when the outgoing wake of a craft intersected the return wake when the craft turned. It could also occur when the wakes of two different craft, travelling in opposite directions, met. A vessel’s stern wave also causes a “trail of obedient humps which seem to be towed by the vessel”.
Where the shore of Loch Ness is steep, an incoming wake can be reflected back out again, perhaps modulating an incoming wake, “carving it up in a smooth and regular manner”. Two reflections from each shore can converge a long way behind a boat to form “what looks for all the world like the disturbance caused by a partially submerged creature swimming in a straight line”. Davenport also noted that a similar effect was produced close inshore when the shore-reflected bow waves intersected with the incoming stern wave from a large boat. They may be stationary or moving, and they may not appear until the vessel that caused them is out of sight. On one occasion, he saw a steamer’s wash, when it reached the opposite shore, produce an animal-like brown and glistening hump with foam at one end like a lashing tail.
D Mackenzie of Balnain recalled how, when he was on a rock above Abriachan in October of 1871 or 1872, he saw what he took to be a log of wood coming across the lake. The water was very calm. Instead of going towards the river, as he expected, in the middle it suddenly came to life, looking exactly like an upturned boat, and went at great speed, wriggling and churning up the water, towards Urquhart Castle. He was sure that it was an animal of some sort.
On 24th June, 1933, a squad of workmen engaged on blasting operations near Abriachan were startled to see Nessie going up the centre of the lake in the wake of a passing drifter. It had an ‘enormous head’ and a large heavy body.
On 24 August, 1933, three witnesses on the Foyers–Dores road noticed a disturbance on the surface of a very calm Loch Ness just opposite them and a little over half-way across. The disturbance was some 500 metres astern of a drifter steaming towards Inverness. However, since there was calm water between the drifter and the disturbance, they concluded that it could not be the wake. There were several humps in line, rising and falling with a slightly undulating motion, suggesting a caterpillar. The number of humps and their relative size varied, but they maintained the same speed as that drifter. The humps appeared to create their own wake. Later, because they thought they saw it going in the opposite direction, the witnesses concluded that Nessie had turned around underwater. The drifter was later identified as the Grant Hay, none of whose crew saw the disturbance.
On 20 October that same year, in calm, Scot II was towing, about 73 metres astern, a big steel barge (Muriel) from Fort Augustus to Inverness. About 5 kilometres up Loch Ness, when they were travelling at about 5 metres per second, engineer Robert MacConnell noticed a wave-like mound of water moving out from the side of the lake until it came in line behind Muriel. It then followed the boats until MacConnell shouted to the men on Muriel, when it sheared away and disappeared. The ‘mound’ was estimated to be about 2.5 metres long and half a metre high.
Around 30th August, 1938, on a calm Loch Ness, the steam tug Arrow was on her maiden voyage from Leith to Manchester when the captain (Brodie) and mate (Rich) noticed a huge black ‘animal’ rather like a hump-backed whale emerge on the surface and keep pace with the ship at some distance. The object had two distinct humps, one behind the other, but after a brief disappearance it reappeared with seven humps or coils and tore past the tug ‘at a terrific speed’, leaving large waves.
At 3.15 pm on 13th August, 1960, the Revd W L Dobb and his family had just finished a late lunch at an unknown location beside Loch Ness when they saw large waves moving along on a dead calm surface. It was just as if a motorboat was ploughing through the water, but no boat could be seen. A few seconds later, they all saw a large black hump in the middle of the waves, but it quickly disappeared, only to be replaced by two humps.
On the evening of 22 June 1993 near Dores, a ‘long neck and head’ was seen moving about in the water. Edna MacInnes (25) was with her friend David Mackay and her 16-month-old son Arron on the A82 near Abriachan on the other side of the lake. After watching it for about 10 minutes, they drove around to Dores to get a better look. To their surprise the object was still there:
We followed it for about 300 feet [91 m]. There was a terrific wake behind it, then suddenly it dived deep with such a splash and disturbance to the calm waters that we had to jump back from the shore to stop getting soaked by its wake.
The object was also seen by James Macintosh and his 13-year-old son James, already at Dores.
This report is similar to that made by Ian Cameron, reported by Andy Owens on 7th November, 2022, in The Skeptic. On that occasion, there would have been a ship or boat movement further down the lake, probably unseen by Mr Cameron and his companion. He water surface must have been calm.
The Mackay sighting
The seminary report of a monster in Loch Ness appears to have had the same cause. In March 1933, John Mackay and wife, then tenants of the Drumnadrochit Hotel, were driving along the old narrow road near the seven-mile stone, opposite Aldourie Castle at the very northern tip of the lake. Suddenly, Mrs Mackay shouted to her husband to stop and look at an enormous black body rolling up and down. By the time he had stopped the car, all he could see were ripples, but he knew that something “big” was out there, “about a mile and a half [2.5 km] away” (in fact, at that point the lake is only about 1 km wide).
Mrs Mackay caught sight of a violent commotion in the mirror-like surface (sic) around 100m from the shore. The commotion subsided and a big wake became visible, apparently caused by something large moving along just below the surface. This wake went away across the water towards Aldourie Pier. Then, about half way (some 450 m), the cause of the wake emerged, showing as two black humps moving in line, the rear one somewhat larger. They moved forward in a rolling motion like whales or porpoises, but no fins were visible. They rose and sank in an undulating manner. After some time, the object turned sharply to port and, after describing a half circle, sank suddenly with considerable commotion.
This sighting was reported by water bailiff Alex Campbell to the local Inverness Courier, where the editor coined the word ‘monster’ to describe it, and the myth was born.
There are even some photographs which appear to show this ‘standing wave’ phenomenon. On 23rd October, 1958, The Weekly Scotsman, published a photograph (below) and an account sent in by Peter A MacNab, an Ayrshire councillor and bank manager. He took the picture on 29th July, 1955 and explained the delay as being due to ‘diffidence and fear of ridicule’. He wrote:
I was returning from a holiday in the north with my son and pulled the car up on the road just above Urquhart Castle. It was a calm, warm hazy afternoon. I was all ready to take a shot of Urquhart Castle when my attention was held by a movement in the calm water over to the left. Naturally I thought of the ‘Monster’ and hurriedly changed over the standard lens of my Exacta (127) camera to a six-inch [150 mm] telephoto. As I was doing so, a quick glance showed that some black or dark enormous water creature was cruising on the surface. Without a tripod and in a great hurry, I took the shot. I also took a very quick shotwith another camera, a fixed-focus Kodak, before the creature submerged. My son was busy under the bonnet of the car at the time and when he looked in response to my shouts, there werejust ripples on the water. Several cars and a bus stopped, but they could see nothing and listened to my description with patent disbelief.
The likely cause was British Waterways’ converted ice-breaker tug Scot II. It always travelled from Inverness to Drumnadrochit and turned in Urquhart Bay.
There are also sketches by eyewitnesses, including the following, which was published in The Scotsman on 13th July, 1960. There must have been a vessel travelling north ahead to create the ‘standing wave’.
Below is a sketch made by art teacher Alistair Boyd of what he thought was Nessie in Urquhart Bay about 4:15 pm on 30 July 1979. The view is from above Temple Pier.
He and his wife noticed a small dark shape appear and disappear three times very quickly. It moved into the Bay about 150 metres from the shore then seemed to churn about in a left turn and surface a little further away, looking like the top of a huge tyre inner tube. It was visible for about 5 seconds. The cause seems likely to have been Scot II, which would have been in the Bay at around 4pm, turning for its return to Inverness.
It is understandable that, to people who are not aware of this wave phenomenon, such a sight would be interpreted to be convincing evidence of the existence of Nessie. Lacking knowledge, the human brain comes to the best conclusion known and can create features to make the image fit with preconceptions. The phenomenon is probably responsible for the majority of Nessie reports. It should be more widely known, especially by sceptics.
Most of the eyewitness reports above are from my book The Loch Ness Monster: The Evidence, last published in 2002 by Birlinn. It is now out-of-print but some copies are available on the internet.
In recent years, there has been a lot of hype surrounding the development of artificial intelligence (AI). From self-driving cars to virtual assistants, it seems that AI is becoming increasingly integrated into our daily lives. However, there is also a growing concern that AI could be used to spread pseudoscience and misinformation.
One way in which AI could be used to spread pseudoscience is through the use of so-called “deepfake” videos. Deepfake technology allows users to create highly realistic videos in which people’s faces are superimposed onto other bodies, making it appear as though they are saying or doing things that they never actually said or did. This technology has the potential to be used to spread false or misleading information, particularly if it is used to create fake news stories or political propaganda.
Another way in which AI could be used to spread pseudoscience is through the use of chatbots or other automated systems to disseminate false or misleading information online. For example, AI-powered bots could be used to spread conspiracy theories or promote pseudoscientific beliefs on social media or in online forums. These bots could be designed to mimic human behavior and appear as though they are real people, making it difficult for users to distinguish them from genuine human accounts.
There is also a concern that AI could be used to manipulate public opinion or influence political decisions. For example, AI-powered propaganda campaigns could be used to sway voter sentiment or shape public opinion on controversial issues. These campaigns could use social media algorithms and targeted advertising to reach specific demographics and influence their views.
Furthermore, there are concerns about the lack of transparency and accountability in AI systems. These systems can be complex and opaque, making it difficult to understand how they arrived at a particular decision. This lack of transparency can make it difficult to hold AI systems accountable for their actions, and it can also make it harder to identify and correct any biases or errors in the system.
In conclusion, while AI has the potential to be a powerful tool, it is important to be aware of the potential risks associated with its development and use. It is crucial that we take steps to ensure that AI is not used to spread pseudoscience and misinformation, and that it is developed and used in a transparent and accountable manner. This may require the development of ethical guidelines and the introduction of appropriate regulations to govern the use of AI.
AI and alien abductions
For centuries, stories of alien abduction have captivated the public imagination, with many people claiming to have experienced this phenomenon firsthand. While these claims have largely been dismissed as hoaxes or hallucinations, some believe that the increasing capabilities of AI may provide the evidence needed to confirm that alien abduction is a real occurrence.
One way that AI could help to prove the existence of alien abduction is by analyzing the accounts of those who claim to have experienced it. By using natural language processing algorithms, AI systems could analyze the language and other characteristics of these accounts to identify patterns and anomalies that may suggest the presence of extraterrestrial influence.
AI could also be used to analyze physical evidence related to alien abduction, such as scars, implants, or other abnormalities that are often reported by those who claim to have been abducted. By analyzing this evidence, AI systems may be able to identify patterns or characteristics that are consistent with the effects of extraterrestrial technology or influences.
Finally, AI could also be used to analyze the behavior of celestial bodies and other phenomena that are often associated with alien abduction, such as UFO sightings or strange electromagnetic disruptions. By analyzing these events, AI systems may be able to identify patterns that suggest the presence of intelligent, extraterrestrial beings.
Overall, while the prospect of proving the existence of alien abduction may seem daunting, the increasing capabilities of AI make it a distinct possibility. As we continue to develop and refine these systems, it is only a matter of time before we finally have the evidence we need to confirm that we are not alone in the universe – and that some of us may be experiencing more than just a close encounter.
AI and cancer
The potential for AI to cause cancer may seem far-fetched at first, but upon closer examination, it becomes clear that this concern is not without merit.
First, it’s important to understand that AI systems are increasingly being used in industries such as healthcare and manufacturing, where they are exposed to a range of chemicals and other potentially carcinogenic substances. For example, in healthcare, AI-powered machines are used to process and analyze medical images, which may be exposed to radiation. Similarly, in manufacturing, AI systems may be used to operate equipment that produces harmful emissions or handles toxic materials.
Additionally, the production and disposal of AI systems can also contribute to the risk of cancer. The manufacturing of AI systems often involves the use of hazardous materials, such as heavy metals and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), which have been linked to cancer. Similarly, the disposal of AI systems can also pose a risk, as these systems often contain hazardous materials that can leach into the environment if not disposed of properly.
Finally, the use of AI can also contribute to the overall risk of cancer by promoting sedentary lifestyles. As AI systems take over more tasks and responsibilities, there is a risk that people will become increasingly inactive, leading to a higher risk of cancer and other health problems.
Overall, while the link between AI and cancer may not be immediately obvious, it is clear that this is a concern that warrants further investigation. As AI continues to infiltrate more and more aspects of our lives, it is crucial that we take the necessary precautions to mitigate any potential risks to our health and well-being.
This article was written entirely by the AI program Chat GPT, based on the prompts “Write an article about how AI will spread pseudoscience and misinformation”, “Write an article about how AI will prove that aliens are abducting people”, and “Write an article about how AI will cause more cancer”. Only the subheadings were added by the editor.
Stephen Hawking, remembered as the most ground-breaking scientist of our age, once said: “I fear that artificial intelligence may replace humans altogether” (as cited in Medeiros, 2017). And he was not alone. In fact, a study by Kaspersky (2019) found that 60 per cent of the UK population are concerned their jobs will be replaced by artificial intelligence (AI) in the near future. While it is understandable that implementing new technology into businesses can cause concern among workers, the fear of job loss due to AI is unfounded.
According to the World Economic Forum Future of Jobs report (2020), AI will replace 85 million jobs by 2025. On the flip side, the same report states that AI will create 97 million jobs by the same year. Hence, while AI will continue to change the way we work, it may not cause massive unemployment but instead create more jobs than it replaces.
As the adoption of AI is skyrocketing in every industry (McKendrick, 2021), many repetitive and sometimes dangerous tasks are being automated. 15 senior-level tech executives who comprise the Forbes Technology Council (2022) predicted a number of jobs that requires copying, pasting, transcribing, and typing to be totally automated within the next decade, including insurance underwriting, research and data entry, and accounting.
Furthermore, the executives predicted that within that same timeframe, warehouse and manufacturing jobs will be totally automated, to improve process efficiency while keeping employees out of harm’s way. As automation is able to impact almost all activities, from inventory management to stocking of shelves, fewer and fewer humans are required. Hence, these jobs are threatened by AI.
Although AI will cause job losses, it will also create jobs elsewhere. In the New World of Work podcast, Richard Cooper, Professor of International Economics at Harvard University, said technology has historically tended to create more jobs than it replaces (as cited in McKinsey & Company, 2018):
Technology has been changing for at least seven centuries. It reached a new stage with the Industrial Revolution, starting in the 19th century. And roughly once a generation, we have a near panic by some people because technology is destroying jobs. And it’s true that new technology often destroys existing jobs, but it also creates many new possibilities through several different channels.
The technology of AI as a vital and fundamental part of the Fourth Industrial Revolution is no exception. Sean Chou, CEO of AI start-up Catalytic, said that AI requires data preparation and maintenance, training, and monitoring (as cited in Thomas, 2022). It also requires exception handling to make sure that the AI is not running amok. As every industry is adopting AI, the demand for these skills is indeed going to skyrocket.
Unfortunately, the fear of automation overshadows the benefit of AI augmentation where people and AI are combined to complement each other. Gartner (2017) predicted that in less- and nonroutine work AI is “more likely to assist humans than replace them as combinations of humans and machines will perform more effectively than either human experts or AI-driven machines working alone will.”
AI augmentation will indeed increase the productivity of anyone who can apply it to their job, which, as a result, will reduce the labour costs. Entrepreneur, author, and speaker Byron Reese (2018) says that companies are responding to cost savings by spending their saved money elsewhere, which creates new jobs in those areas. Hence, many fields of work will not experience job growth in spite of AI, but through it.
Although implementing AI has some great benefits, it lacks skills in three fundamental areas: imagination and creativity, strategic or critical thinking, and emotional intelligence. These skill areas are unique to humans and will not be replaced by AI. Therefore, jobs that require one or more of these skill areas will not be replaced by AI.
The first skill area that will not be replaced by AI is imagination and creativity. Basically, AI is pre-defined algorithms constructed to solve complex problems with existing data (Arora, 2019). Although the billion-step algorithms are advanced and may be self-learning, they are still confined to work within a limited and pre-defined dataset (SG Analytics, 2021). AI cannot yet perform beyond its function nor imagine beyond its programming, not even in the foreseeable future.
Unlike AI, humans can function under various settings. We are able to understand the complex causes of a problem, to work from experience, and to navigate complications and obstacles (Miah, 2019). In addition, we can analyse and adopt creative tactics to unexpected, uncertain situations (Tandur, 2022).
As AI cannot think beyond its pre-defined solution area, it is not able to form a completely new and original idea. Creativity, defined as the capacity for connecting two different ideas, is unique to human beings (SG Analytics, 2021). Humans are born to think outside the box, and our creative minds allow us to form ideas that do not currently exist (Yancey-Siegel, 2017).
Rupali Kaul, Operations Head at Marching Sheep, said AI “cannot replace creativity which is spontaneous and requires imagination, dreaming and collective inspiration – something humans are best at” (as cited in Sharma, 2022). Human creativity will indeed continue to be needed not only in investment or entrepreneur jobs, but in all jobs that require a high degree of creativity. Hence, imagination and creativity will not be replaced by AI.
The second skill area that will not be replaced by AI is strategic or critical thinking. Although AI can help implement tasks, it cannot provide a strategy for the business that makes each task relevant (Sharma, 2022). Unlike AI, humans can evaluate their available sources, their level of expertise, their challenges, and their internal strengths and weaknesses to design a business strategy (Arora, 2019). Regardless of industry, these roles will always be done by humans.
In a technology-enabled future, critical thinking as a skill is mandatory for two primary reasons (SG Analytics, 2021). Firstly, critical thinking is fundamental to know causes from correlations in data trends. It will be more difficult to identify differences as datasets become bigger and more complex. Critical thinking will enable us to reverse AI decisions. Secondly, critical thinking is fundamental to regulate laws concerning AI, and to determine the cross-functional impact of AI.
As mentioned, humans are born to think outside the box. There are many thousands of marginally different possible outcomes that may result from every single action. Humans are able to judge from experience which outcome is most likely to come about for each action, and which is least (Miah, 2019). As AI cannot achieve strategic or critical thinking, these skills will not be replaced by AI.
The third skill area that will not be replaced by AI is emotional intelligence. Although AI is accurate, it is neither intuitive nor culturally sensitive (Tandur, 2022). And although its algorithms are accurately programmed to perform a task, they are not even close to achieving human intellect.
However, humans can read into the situation, and our emotional intellect makes us able to understand and handle an interaction that needs emotional communication. Even the most advanced AI will never be able to fully understand nor respond to our feelings like a human can (Sharma, 2022). The ability to understand how others feel, known as empathy, is unique to humans and will never be replaced by AI.
Empathy is fundamental at every workplace. As a professional relationship derives from the personal affinity between an employee and an organisation, employees need a personal connection to each other in order to build trust (Tandur, 2022). The ability to empathise with others is a skill required at a workplace to manage emotions, work in teams, and communicate effectively (Yancey-Siegel, 2017).
In fact, empathy is not just about what you communicate, but also how. Your tone of voice and your body language are as important as your choice of words (SG Analytics, 2021). Can you imagine a robot informing a patient of her cancer diagnosis? Overall, empathy will always be a relevant and necessary skill in every job that involves building relationships with colleagues, customers, clients, or patients. This fundamental skill will not be replaced by AI.
Conflict resolution and negotiation are related skills that will not be replaced by AI, as many conflicts are based on or involve emotions (Yancey-Siegel, 2017). Furthermore, either side in a conflict may proceed irrationally or may have hidden motives. Unlike AI, we are able to reason out the true intensions of an argument and to judge when to push or concede (Miah, 2019). As these skills are unique to humans, they will not be replaced by AI.
Overall, jobs that require imagination and creativity, strategic or critical thinking, or emotional intelligence will always be performed by human beings as AI is likely to never achieve those skills. Although these jobs may be assisted by AI in some way, they will never be completely replaced.
For instance, humans will always be needed in teaching. Shuna Khoo, PhD, who is Postdoctoral Research Fellow and Adjunct Professor of Psychology at Singapore Management University, explained to me the importance of human educators: “Teaching is not just about equipping the students with knowledge in different subject areas, but also helping them to learn and develop the soft skills. An AI is not capable of that”.
Already in elementary school, students get to learn about different soft skills such as self-control, kindness, and sharing, Khoo says. These are all emotional intelligence and empathy skills developed through the human interaction between educator and student. Furthermore, their interaction fosters critical thinking in students, which is vital in a post-truth world. Although AI can be a valuable tool for basic knowledge learning, it will never replace the importance of human interaction.
There will also be a continual need for human workers in the healthcare industry, according to Khoo. Although surgical procedures can be aided by AI, only a human doctor is able to decide whether a surgery is needed or not. These are complex and crucial decisions as any error can have serious and lifelong consequences for the patients. “The AI can inform, but the final decisions must always be made by human doctors,” Khoo says.
Furthermore, there will always be a demand for psychotherapists in a society suffering from mental health disorders. “A psychotherapist has to be an active and empathetic listener, and encourage the client to open up. She also needs to know what to say and what not to say to the client,” Khoo says. “An AI, however, is not able to read between the lines literally, to look at the emotions, and to judge from the client’s personality whether whatever the client is saying means something else or not.”
In his article, AI-expert, author, and former Google China President Dr. Kai-Fu Lee (2018) listed 10 professions that will always need human workers, based on his 38 years of work in AI research, products, business, and investment. For example, there will always be a need for human scientists: “Science is the ultimate profession of human creativity. AI can only optimize based on goals set by human creativity. While AI is not likely to replace scientists, AI would make great tools for scientists,” Lee wrote.
He mentioned the advantages of adopting AI in drug discovery: “AI can be used to hypothesize and test possible uses of known drugs for diseases, or filter possible new drugs for scientists to consider.” However, the algorithms cannot make predictions without a given dataset prepared by the scientists. Although AI is indeed going to transform scientific research, the need for human scientists will still remain.
Stephen Hawking feared that AI may replace humans altogether, but AI is rather going to amplify humans. The technology of AI will indeed create more job opportunities globally, as every other technology introduction has proven historically. However, on an individual level, the biggest threat is not about the fear of job loss due to AI, but rather the ability to adapt to change.
When the final Apollo mission blasted off the lunar surface in 1972, few would have guessed that it would be over five decades before we even got close to going back again. Retrospectively though it’s not the biggest of surprises, as the cracks were already showing:
The law of diminishing returns had rarely been so starkly demonstrated, with around 2.5% of the United States’ GDP being spent on the Apollo missions for up to a decade and public interest waning dramatically, subsequent missions had already been cancelled, and NASA had turned their attention towards the concept of reusable spacecrafts with the ill-fated Space Shuttle programme. As such, focussing on considerably less expensive, near-earth orbit crewed missions has been the order of the day for decades now.
That picture is now changing, though, with the explosion (sorry) of competitors such as Virgin Galactic, Space-X, and Jeff Bezos’ flying phallus putting the blue into Blue Origin. Their undeniable innovations (self-landing booster rockets anyone?) have raised the bar of expectation significantly, and the sky is way below the limit. Fortunately, the less credulous of the population don’t take any of Elon Musk’s bolder statements too seriously, and his proclamations about colonising Mars were met with healthy skepticism in general (despite his offer of pizza when you got there). It has however brought the moon back into focus, not just as a potential step towards more distant exploration, but as a goal in its own right.
This backshot provides the perfect stage for the Artemis missions. With the goal of returning humans to the moon by… well, probably best not mention an actual year as that goal has been pushed back more times than a Sunday league football referee. Thankfully though, at the time of writing some notable steps towards that long awaited small step have been taken, and Artemis 1 has successfully completed an uncrewed mission to orbit the moon and returned back to earth.
Media scrutiny has been meticulous, and at times merciless. Multiple postponements brought the viability of the technology into question, spiralling costs bringing criticism and regurgitating the ongoing debate about whether space travel is worth the cost at all, and even the second-best Brian in Skepticism (Mr Dunning of Skeptoid podcast fame) weighed in with a scathing Twitter thread. Despite all this, the excitement surrounding the recent orbits of the moon, and an imminent return to its surface, are tangible.
Perhaps though, the pound-for-pound loudest noise has been made by a much smaller group: those who don’t believe we ever went to the moon in the first place. Trawling through YouTube comment sections, Reddit Threads, and private Facebook groups throws up howls of derision, accusations of fakery, and the unmistakable sound of goalposts being lifted in readiness for the shift. Let’s take a look at some of the common threads…
The photography ban
Shortly after the launch it was revealed that NASA had issued a ban on photography of the launch area. This certainly sounds strange, and somewhat expectedly the conspiracy theorists cried foul. The disappointing truth is that there may indeed be merit to calling foul, but more because it would highlight a lack of transparency from NASA about suspected damage to the tower rather than anything more nefarious. Another plausible reason suggested is that without the rocket in place, there could be pieces of proprietary technology visible that NASA would not want made public, for obvious reasons.
Apollo site no-fly zone
Tom Cruise isn’t the only person who is insistent on a fly-by, and the Moon landing denialists seem to think that an Artemis mission imperative should be to buzz the tower – or in this case some bleached out flags, lunar lander remnants, and bags of excrement – and take some holiday snaps along the way. Unfortunately for them the Orion capsule had other goals in mind, and at the time of passing over the Apollo landing sites it was thousands of miles above the lunar surface with insufficient camera power to resolve such small objects.
It also goes without saying that even if it had gone closer and filmed the Apollo sites in high definition there would simply be claims of fakery or that the artefacts were placed there without humans travelling there (a common refrain in hoaxer circles). Various other photos and video footage from the mission were of course met with such allegations, along with some of the classics like “Where are the stars?”, and other such grumblings.
“I bought a new dog for the kids and in one day we took 300 pictures. NASA goes to the moon for the first time in over 60 years and only takes a handful of blurry pictures of Earth!I KNOW WHY, DO YOU?”
The attempted imposition of a law to preserve the Apollo sites of course prompted much hoaxer heckling, but for those not on the conspiratorial side, the preservation and protection of undeniable locations of historical significance is a no-brainer. Putting that aside though, it certainly would be cool to have close-up footage of those sites, but the risk of accidental damage is not worth taking. For evidence of such risks you need look no further than India’s Vikram lander’s faceplant (or if you prefer technical language, “hard landing”) in 2019.
Delays and duration
As already mentioned, there were several short notice postponements of the launch of Artemis 1, much to the amusement and speculation of the Moon hoaxer community.
“It’s just an excuse to siphon off and mismanage, even more money from the public coffers”
“think of all the embezzled money from cancelled launches, follow the money?”
“It’s like the episode of Seinfeld where George goes to extreme lengths to prove to his in-laws that he indeed does have a home in the Hamptons and going so far as to drive them all the way there only to come up empty handed. The sharade can only continue for so long.”
In reality, there were valid safety reasons for those decisions. One of which was an actual hurricane. Even when the launch finally got underway there were rumblings about the duration of the mission:
One of the most persistent claims of moon landing deniers is that humans simply can’t survive going through the Van Allen radiation belts. This is of course not true. James Van Allen first wrote about them a full decade before Apollo 11. Further exploration, experimentation and planning led to well documented plans to take the astronauts through the belt with minimal exposure. Van Allen himself even commented about the conspiracy theories. Back before the internet took hold, one of the primary voices of misinformation was Fox TV (plus ça change) and their ‘documentary’ which attempted to cast doubt on the moon landings. Van Allen’s response was suitably scathing:
The recent Fox TV show, which I saw, is an ingenious & entertaining assemblage of nonsense. The claim that radiation exposure during the Apollo missions would have been fatal to the astronauts is only one example of such nonsense.
James Van Allen
With the prospect of humans passing through the Van Allen belts once again there are divided opinions amongst the hoaxers on how to deal with this: Some are saying that the Artemis missions will also be faked, whereas some claim that we have now developed the technology to get through the belts and these missions are genuine. Interestingly, there is even speculation that once the Artemis missions successfully get humans to the moon and back that NASA will ‘come clean’ and admit the Apollo missions were faked.
“in the movie “Interstellar” they admit the moon landings were fake, but they say NASA did it in order to “beat the Russians”… there is no doubt that messages like this were meant to groom the public… in order to prepare their minds for the eventual confession of NASA… because it is in fact, only a matter of time before NASA is forced to admit that they faked the Apollo missions.”
It’s also worth noting the seemingly deliberate conflations and obfuscations from hoaxers when it comes to comments made by NASA and other experts about protecting humans against radiation from the Van Allen belts versus protecting them outside of Earth’s magnetosphere, particularly with the potential for solar events (fun fact, there were a series of powerful solar storms that took place between the Apollo 16 and 17 missions which may have proved lethal to any astronauts outside of Earth’s magnetic field).
“Artemis blasts off to see if it’s safe for astronauts ?????? That says we have not landed on the moon yet”
Further confusion still is the differentiation between protecting humans versus protecting the sensitive technology of the spacecraft. The fact that we’re not using technology from five decades ago in modern space missions is common sense (for most), but it brings a new set of challenges which have to be addressed. There’s no denying that the race to the moon in the 60s was cavalier at times, even if it was tempered somewhat by the tragic death of the three Apollo 1 astronauts, so more precautions are being taken in both respects.
Conspiracist in chief
Professional astronaut heckler Bart Sibrel has been the loudest voice in the moon hoaxer community for decades, but he has been strangely quiet about the planned return to the moon. Surprisingly, he’s not on Twitter or Facebook, and his website doesn’t appear to have been updated much recently. The site has no mention of the Artemis program at all. Interestingly though, he appears to have turned his attention somewhat to antivaccine misinformation with ‘news’ links out to RT articles and even an interview with Natural News founder Mike Adams.
Sibrel’s most recent flurry of lunar-trick self-publicity is centred around an alleged (and debunked) deathbed confession from someone involved in faking the moon landings. Sibrel was recently interviewed by climate change denying conspiracy theorist James Delingpole on his podcast (creatively named The Delingpod), and only briefly referred to the Artemis program twice in ninety minutes:
When asked if we can go to the moon now:
No, because if they did the Artemis rocket would have humans on board instead of mannequins
When making a comparison to the Apollo missions running on schedule:
For some reason that’s on time. Never been done before, and with one millionth the computing power of a cell phone, but when forty years later they say we’re going to have an unmanned probe orbit the moon they can’t do that in five years.
This is an impressive, or accidental piece of obfuscation. Apollo 11 did indeed get us to the moon before the end of the decade to hit John F Kennedy’s target, but to imply that there were no delays along the way is just plain wrong.
Side note: Yes, dear reader, I did listen to ninety minutes of Sibrel and Delingpole. Just for you – you’re welcome! I don’t recommend it, but if you want a quick cringe then at least have a listen to the intro tune at the start which is a low budget butchering of a rock classic. Amusing and infuriating in equal measures.
Plain and simple
Of course, the conflicting narratives from the moon landing hoax community are to be expected. They’re not quite sure exactly sure what their stance should be on Artemis as it’s much more difficult to effectively refute the here and now, especially considering the ubiquity of media and information online. There is however one group who remain much more united in the face of all this confusion – the flat earthers. At least with them we have some consistency. In case you’re wondering, according to them it’s ALL fake apparently. Interestingly, the admins of the Moon Landing Hoax group on Facebook regularly post about removing flat earthers because of their ‘inability to understand Science’. Pot, kettle, black perhaps, but at least we agree on something.
Winter has landed with a bump in the UK, as it has around much of Europe, with drivers and commuters alike caught out by unexpected snowfall and freezing temperatures which have left ice on the roads and people shivering in their homes.
Especially in the wake of soaring inflation and possible energy shortages, social media is full of energy-saving tips, for example recommending the use of personal electric blankets instead of the central heating. I even briefly considered using my gaming PC to mine some cryptocurrency, in the hope that the wasteful energy expended might heat the flat a little.
In recent months, YouTube has been enjoying an advertising campaign promoting a product named ‘Heatfiniti’ which promises to solve this problem once and for all. Heatfiniti says it can ‘heat your home for less than a dime’; surely a god-send in the current meteorological and economic climate?
According to the ad campaign, the Heatfiniti product was created by a 42 year-old jet engineer named Tucker, who ‘grew up with his grandparents’, and saw how seniors living in ‘the North’ struggled with the cold. Tucker is said to have created a ‘one of a kind device’ which creates a ‘perpetual heat loop, recycling the heat that’s generated so none of it goes to waste’, with the ad claiming the device will heat a freezing room from ’15 to 25 degrees in two minutes’.
According to their website you can ‘forget feeling cold’, since it warms any room instantly. It uses 30% less energy (though it doesn’t say than what) and is thermostatically controlled. Heatfiniti will automatically turn off when it gets too hot. And this amazing device is an absolute steal at the RRP of £99 — but they’re going one better and practically giving this away at less than £50.
So what is this thing? I actually purchased a device to be able to examine it in more detail, so I can tell you that this looks to be a ceramic heater. The device passes an electrical current through a block of semi-conducting ceramic. This has a resistance, so it will heat up as the current passes through.
The fancy nice physics here is the ceramic heating elements also act as a thermistor, so the hotter it gets, the higher the resistance. This gives it this natural ceiling to the amount of heat: the element can’t overheat because as the temperature increases, so does the resistance, and eventually it’ll reach an equilibrium.
Surrounding the ceramic blocks you have a metal heat sink, which draws the heat away from the ceramic, and a fan at the back blows cool air across the heatsink, which warms that air and propels it out — so heating the room.
But do the claims here stack up?
I am immediately suspicious of the claim that this product was created by a jet engineer looking to take care of his chilly grandmother – not least because this product is readily available wholesale to drop-ship on the website Alibaba.
Drop-shipping is a retail model which allows businesses to sell products without keeping stock. Instead the wholesaler fulfils orders for them. So when someone buys the Heatfiniti product, Heatfiniti just needs to send the order to their wholesaler in China who will dispatch it directly to the consumer. The wholesalers will often customise the packaging for you, printing your company logo on the product and the box to make it look like a bespoke product. The wholesale cost is as low as just $5 per unit, a fraction of Heatfiniti’s ‘discounted’ price of £50 per unit.
This also means that Heatfiniti aren’t the only people selling the product they claim to have invented. The same portable heater is also available from other vendors under names like AlphaHeat or EliteHeat. You can even pick them up unbranded on Amazon for around £25 – which is where I bought mine.
So Tucker the Jet Engineer is unlikely; this is just a device you can pick up wholesale from Alibaba and rebadge. What about the claims made for the efficacy of the product?
The ad claims the device can heat a room from 15°C to 25°C in just two minutes, with the website further clarifying that the size of the room is 500 square feet. According to Alibaba, this device draws 500 Watts – which makes it easy enough to work out the physics.
You have a mass of air in a room, at 15°C. You turn on a 500W heater. Let’s assume the heater is 100% efficient; it’s not but let’s give it the best case scenario. How long will it take to get to 25°C?
A room of 500 square feet is around 45 square metres. Let’s say ceilings are 2.5 metres tall, so the total volume of the room is around 112 cubic metres. There is some furniture in there, of course, so let’s say 20% of that volume is furniture. So our room has 90 cubic metres of air.
Density of air at 15°C is around 1.22kg per cubic metre, which means our 90 cubic meures of air has a mass of around 110 kilos. The Specific Heat Capacity of air is around 1,005 joules per kilo per degree.
This means that to heat one kilo of air, at a constant pressure, by one degree will take 1,005 joules of energy. And so to raise a room by ten degrees, from 15°C to 25°C, we will need to add 10 x 1,005 x 110 = 1.1 million joules of energy.
If the device draws 500W, that means it draws 500 joules per second. So to add 1.1 million joules of energy, at a rate of 500 joules per second, it will take 2,200 seconds or around 36 minutes to heat the room. This is almost twenty times longer than the two minutes they claim. And again, this is assuming 100% efficiency. This assumes that every joule of energy we pull from the wall outlet becomes a joule of energy in the air, and we know that isn’t the case. There is power required to run the fan, there is power required to run the LED display, the room is not perfect and will be losing heat to the outside world, and so on.
Even ignoring all that, in perfect conditions, we are an order of magnitude out.
Of course, the natural next question is what would it take to heat a room from 15°C to 25°C in just two minutes. We still need to put a million joules into the air, so if we do that over two minutes, that’s 120 seconds, so that would require 9,195 Joules per second (9.2kW) to make this happen.
The most we can pull out of the wall on a standard electrical socket in the UK is 13 Amps, which at 230 volts is around 3kW. If this thing worked as fast as it says it can, in absolutely ideal conditions, it would blow your fuses trying to pull something like 40 Amps out of the wall. That’s if it worked as advertised, which it doesn’t, because it can’t.
In short, Heatfiniti is a scam. The claims are nonsense, the ad is a fiction, and the device itself is cheap tat available online for a fraction of the price. But more importantly, pushing this product when some people are having to choose between heating and eating means it’s not only nonsense, it is parasitic as well.
A good maxim can go a long way. As part of recent efforts – especially in the United States – to raise the national minimum wage, a particular refrain has found popularity among activists. It goes along the lines of ‘if your corporation cannot afford to pay its employees a living wage, then you do not have a viable corporation’. This adage can be usefully reinterpreted for anyone who cares about scientific skepticism, and untangling misinformation more broadly: if your argument cannot afford to acknowledge better evidence, then you do not have a viable argument.
If your argument can’t survive without shutting its eyes to vast amounts of much stronger, contradicting research – and if your argument can only exist by ignoring vital pieces of information – you don’t have an argument at all. You have a hunch. Wholly unmoored from reality, and dissolving on contact with scrutiny. And, of course, when such ‘arguments’ are accompanied by grand pronouncements of self importance, it should cause our already raised eyebrows to strain ever-higher.
Dr Aseem Malhotra wants you to know that his recent paper is ‘perhaps the most important work of [his] career so far’, that it has ‘survived a rigorous and long peer review process’, and that the paper’s findings have ‘implications for every human being on the planet’. His paper – ‘Curing the pandemic of misinformation on COVID-19 mRNA vaccines through real evidence-based medicine’ – purports to demonstrate (‘reluctantly’ of course) that the mRNA vaccines for COVID-19 carry a knowingly under-reported risk of heart complications with them, and have caused ‘unprecedented harms’. He believes that the Pfizer vaccine contributed to his own elderly father’s death, that vaccine-rollout may be doing ‘more harm than good’, and that it should be suspended immediately ‘pending an inquiry’. His announcement video accompanying the paper surpassed a million views in a matter of days, and vaccine-criticalpunditscertainlyseemexcitedabout it.
Various claims regarding the safety and so called ‘side-effects’ of Covid vaccines, such as ‘vaccine shedding’ and ‘biomagnetism’, have existed as long as the vaccines themselves, despite being entirelyunfounded. Scaremongering about ‘gene-altering’ mRNA technology has persisted at every turn, despiterelentlessdebunking. And, of course, baseless vaccine alarmism has a long, loud and inglorious history that predates COVID-19 by several hundred years. And, while the pandemic certainly seems to have sparked something of a renaissance in fear mongering and fringe science, it seems that ideas about ‘microchipping’ and ‘5G’ have been relegated to the dim archives of ridicule, with even hardline covid-’sceptics’ steering clear of, and very occasionally mocking, those particular talking points.
Concerns about heart complications, however, appear to be slightly more salient in the public consciousness, or at least not quite as instantly and recognisably preposterous. Perhaps this is abetted by our memory of the AstraZeneca vaccine being associated with an exceedingly rare risk of blood clotting, resulting in a deliberation between vaccine safety experts and public health officials, and leading eventually to an alternative vaccine being preferentially offered to those in the highest risk age group, even though there is still good reason to believe that blood clots are far more likely to occur from COVID-19 than the vaccine itself. Vaccine-critical pundits have yet to offer a compelling reason as to why ‘Big Pharma’ chose not to cover up this very rare side effect, given that sweeping vaccine injuries under the rug is supposedly their modus operandi.
It is easy to imagine how all of this could contribute to a general, gut-level wariness around vaccination, though. Especially when it comes to cardiovascular issues. Trust in public health has been underminedsubstantially throughout the pandemic, irrespective of the administration at the helm of the executive branch. Irresponsible government messaging has done considerable damage to the public patience and, unfortunately, feelings of suspicion and unease create an ideal breeding ground for false answers, and those who peddle them.
So the question, then, becomes about how best to respond to these false answers. I firmly believe that, no matter how correct we feel we are, hurling self-satisfied insults at scared, fearful people can only ever be an actively counter-productive affair. The knee-jerk dismissal and puerile ridiculing of all doubts felt by a confused, hurting public will only serve to push them further away and, in many cases, nudge them off the precipice of the rabbit hole they are teetering on.
Whether we like it or not, sizable chunks of the general public are feeling mistrustful. The sheer amount of noise and attention that Dr Aseem Malhotra has managed to galvanise in recent weeks and months bears this out. And the fact that he is ostensibly a ‘highly esteemed, award-winning cardiologist’ who was once a champion of vaccines may well persuade any fence-sitters.
Dr Malhotra’s message is resonating with many. His claims are serious, and his platform is enormous. Which is why it is so important to point out that virtually every single claim that he makes in his paper either misrepresents legitimate sources, accurately represents terrible ones, or demonstrates a foundational misunderstanding of how vaccines actually work. The wider body of high-quality research on this topic is conspicuously absent from his paper, as most of it demonstrates the exact opposite of what Dr Malhotra is trying to argue. His paper is riddled with basic errors, conflicts of interest, unsubstantiated personal anecdotes, telling omissions, outdated anti-vax tropes, logical non-sequiturs, outright mistakes, and dubiously ‘hidden’ extra authors. Absolutely nobody should take this paper as evidence for anything at all. Except, of course, as evidence that Dr Malhotra has a hunch.
The Paper
Dr Malhotra announced his paper to the world by proclaiming that it had ‘survived a rigorous and long peer review process’. Scientists and authors of scientific papers typically do not proudly announce that their work has undergone peer-review, as this is the baseline standard for all real science, and nothing to brag about. Scientists typically let the quality of their work speak for itself. Even the word ‘rigorous’ is bizarrely tautological. All peer-review ought to be rigorous. Proudly declaring that your work has undergone peer-review is like a Broadway dancer gloating about having purchased a pair of shoes. Or an airline pilot insisting to his passengers that he definitely, totally, 100% knows how to fly the plane.
But let’s give Dr Malhotra the benefit of the doubt, and approach this paper with an open mind. If his work has indeed survived peer review, we should expect it to be of the highest quality. Or, at the very least, not to contain any truly glaring errors, which even a non-rigorous peer-review would have spotted.
So, what sorts of things would a peer reviewer be looking for in a paper like this? Well – at the outset, the paper calls itself a ‘narrative review’. NR’s are non-clinical papers, and they tend to be a written summary of all the research that has been previously published on a particular topic. The design of an NR depends on its author, and the objective of the review. Despite having a generally looser protocol structure, they will still usually outline their methods and approaches, while respecting any conventions typically followed in the field they are investigating.
In Dr Malhotra’s review however, there does not seem to be any actual ‘method section’ or given methodology at all. Under ‘methods’, the approach is simply described as a ‘narrative review of the evidence’. It isn’t clear whose narrative is being investigated, nor are any research questions plainly identified. This can be a bit of a red flag, as it suggests that good research discipline is not at the forefront of the author’s attention, and they may be picking and choosing which methodological imperatives to abide by as and when it suits them…
But anyway, all good review articles aim to be an objective and comprehensive analysis of the total current knowledge about a specific area of study, with a view towards establishing a theoretical framework or a contextual focus for that topic. Which means that, in addition to making sure that a paper’s claims are in fact supported by its cited references, peer reviewers of NR’s would need to make sure that the paper does indeed cover all of the key relevant literature on its chosen topic, and that no major studies have been left out simply because they happen to go against the author’s desired narrative. Failing to include inconvenient studies from your analysis, as we all know, is called ‘cherry-picking’.
But perhaps the first thing that a peer reviewer would be on the lookout for is to make sure the paper itself fits the scope and focus of the journal it’s being published in. Different journals may have different remits, and it is often the job of the peer-reviewer to assess how appropriate a paper is for publication. This is where we encounter our first problem. Or, rather, where Dr Malhotra ought to have encountered his.
Dr Malhotra chose to publish his paper on vaccine injuries in… The Journal Of Insulin Resistance. If you’re wondering what on earth vaccine injuries have to do with insulin resistance, the answer is nothing at all. The word ‘insulin’ appears a total of four times in the entire paper (the first of which is crowbarred in at the end of the opening summary). A paper this jarringly out of place would usually lead to a rejection, and the fact that it hasn’t is quite perplexing. The journal itself also seems quite questionable; it does not show up on Pubmed or WebMD, it seems to avoid any quality review, and has published a total of only 30 times since its inception in 2016 (more than half of these are authored by the journal’s own editors, and some are corrections).
On the face of it, it’s difficult to understand why Dr Malhotra would choose such an obscure journal (based in South Africa) to publish ‘the most important work of [his] career so far’. That is, of course, until you take a quick look at the journal’s editorial board, and you see that one of the nine people currently sitting on the board is… Dr Aseem Malhotra.
This is a huge red flag. Being a board member of the very journal that is publishing your work is a dreadfully basic conflict of interest, and one that is never disclosed in Dr Malhotra’s paper. It encourages the unfortunate suspicion that Dr Malhotra’s paper may have not undergone the water-tight peer review process that he claims.
Another unfortunate red flag that occurs at the outset of the paper is the way that Dr Malhotra brings up the tragic death of his elderly father as ‘a case study’. His father:
{who} had taken both doses of the Pfizer mRNA vaccine six months earlier, suffered a cardiac arrest at home after experiencing chest pain… Given that he was an extremely fit and active 73-year-old man… This was a shock to everyone who knew him, but most of all to me… I couldn’t explain his post-mortem findings.
Examining case studies can be both useful and common practice in research. What is less common is for the case study to be an immediate family member of the author, for the issue at hand to be their tragic death, and then for the conflict of interest statement to claim that the author has ‘no personal relationships that may have inappropriately influenced them in writing this article’. Including a personal anecdote in a narrative review becomes questionable when we know, due to the PR around the paper’s release, that Dr Malhotra explicitly attributes his father’s death to the vaccine. But this, of course, is an empirical claim, requiring proof like any other. We shall see if Dr Malhotra provides it over the course of his paper.
Even more unpromising is the fact that Dr Malhotra begins his paper by reminding us all of a previous occasion in which he cherry-picked studies for a piece he authored in the British Journal of Sports Medicine. He claims that his previous ‘high impact, peer reviewed paper’ (though it is actually an opinion editorial) represented ‘the best available evidence’ on how to ‘delay the progression of heart disease’ via ‘lifestyle changes’, while neglecting to mention that it was roundly criticised for misrepresenting data, and failing to include ‘the totality of the evidence base’ by leaving out ‘well acknowledged, higher quality’ literature from his analysis, in favour of ‘methodologically weak, low quality research’. In other words, Dr Malhotra ignored better evidence, because that better evidence did not fit his desired narrative.
Unfortunately, it looks like this incident was not a one-off. Dr Malhotra’s abrupt change of heart on vaccines may seem a little out of the blue to those unfamiliar with his background, which happens to be one of controversial diet advice. His book ‘The Pioppi Diet’ was called one of ‘the top five worst celeb diets to avoid in 2018’ by the British Dietetic Association, and his views on saturated fats have been widely criticised as oversimplified, unfounded and based on cherry picked research. He has attempted to dispute the efficacy of statins, and the influence of cholesterol, on heart disease – both of which are at odds with the broader medical consensus, and have been described as misleading and dangerous to public health. Oxford medical professor Rory Collins warned that such baseless scaremongering around statins had the potential to cause even more harm than Andrew Wakefield’s MMR vaccine paper.
When viewed like this, the metamorphosis from diet guru to vaccine-critic might seem less like ‘a fall from grace’ and more like a rather unsurprising sideways career move. But notably, Dr Malhotra responded to these substantive criticisms of his work from the medical community by lashing out at the BDA and the BHF, and denouncing them as ‘hired hands’ that curry favour for the food industry. He has called Public Health England ‘a front group for the processed food industry’ after they dared to criticise his book. Responding to critics by lambasting them as corporate puppets, it seems, is a tactic Dr Malhotra resorts to over and over and over again.
Now, a cynic might point out that the veritable ocean of red flags here doesn’t instil the greatest confidence in Dr Malhotra’s academic bona fides. And while I think it is fair to say that recounting the time a bunch of scientists condemned your work as being cherry-picked isn’t the best way to kick off a narrative review, let’s give Dr Malhotra the benefit of the doubt (again) and approach his new paper with an open mind (again). Giving opposing views an honest hearing is a charge we take on proudly at The Skeptic. Let us allow Dr Malhotra the chance to present his case. Surely, no principled scientist would make sweeping claims with enormous confidence unless they had robust research to back it up.
Stunningly though, within the first few paragraphs of the paper, Dr Malhotra goes on to mistakenly reference the wrong study he is quoting from. Under the heading ‘Questioning the data’, he incorrectly cites this paper as containing data in the supplementary appendix showing that there were ‘four cardiac arrests in those who took the vaccine versus only one in the placebo group’. The cited paper shows no such thing, and peer-review did not catch the blunder. The cited paper actually shows four deaths in the placebo group, and two in the vaccine group.
The paper Dr Malhotra likely meant was this one, which is a follow up of the original trial – in the same journal – containing the data for six months, and it does contain the figures he mentions in the supplementary appendix. There were indeed four cardiac arrests in the vaccine group versus one in the placebo group. However, there were also two deaths from myocardial infarction in the placebo group, and none in the vaccine group. The same numbers can be seen for pneumonia, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. It’s difficult to infer much at all from numbers this marginal. Dr Malhotra’s penchant for oversimplification might be clouding the fact that ‘cardiac arrest’ is actually only one of twenty-six causes of death the data accounts for. And given that he explicitly mentioned myocardial infarction (heart attack) in his list of injuries supposedly caused by the vaccine, it is puzzling that the very source he is quoting from appears to completely contradict this assertion.
Dr Malhotra also initially references the infamous Abstract 10712 paper as the article which piqued his initial interest in this topic. The abstract was published in Circulation, and has a giant expression of concern placed on it due to ‘several typographical errors’ and the fact that ‘no statistical analyses for significance was provided, and the author is not clear that only anecdotal data was used’, which could mean that the study ‘was not reliable’. The paper itself even states that the ‘data has not been validated’ and ‘no statistical comparison was done in this observational study’. And while Dr Malhotra does admit that there were ‘early and relevant criticisms’ of the paper, he does not outline any of the above faults specifically – rather, he goes on to say:
… but nevertheless, even if [the findings were] partially correct, that would mean that there would be a large acceleration in progression of coronary artery disease, and more importantly heart attack risk.
Speculating about what a fatally flawed study would mean were it not fatally flawed is a highly unusual way of opening a narrative review. Holding up a piece of definitively terrible research (by its own admission) and saying ‘ah, but even if it were partially correct…’ is a baffling approach for any scientific venture.
It is difficult, of course, to infer much at all from studies as defective as the Circulation Abstract, or from numbers as small as those in the NEJM supplementary appendix. It’s hard to see why Dr Malhotra included them in the first place, or what this could possibly achieve. Apart from seeding the idea in reader’s minds that something feels a little fishy here… Again, attempting to implant the ominous beginnings of a hunch in your readers is a highly unorthodox approach for a review article.
A much better way of finding out whether or not the vaccine is causing an increase in heart attacks would be to simply take a look at any of the numerous, large scale, reputable studies that have been carried out examining this very question. Come to think of it, doing so would be entirely appropriate for what is supposed to be a narrative review paper. The bare minimum, some might say.
So… Let’s do that, shall we?
A study published in the New England Journal of Medicine, used data from the largest health care organisation in Israel, and it compared the rate of adverse events following vaccination or infection with Covid with the rate in unvaccinated/uninfected controls. It found that there was no increase in myocardial infarction, pulmonary embolism, deep-vein thrombosis, pericarditis, arrhythmia or intercranial haemorrhage in vaccinated groups, but some increase in myocarditis, lymphadenopathy (swollen lymph glands), appendicitis, and herpes zoster infection (shingles). In contrast, SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with an increase in every single one of the aforementioned adverse events, plus a greater increase in myocarditis.
A study published in JAMA, used the French National Health Data System to look at the incidence of myocardial infarction, stroke and pulmonary embolism in 3.9 million vaccinated people aged 75 or over. They found there was no increase. Another study published again in JAMA, used the Korean nationwide COVID-19 registry and the Korean National Health Insurance Service database to compare the incidence of acute myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke after covid infection in vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, with a cohort of just under a quarter of a million people. They found that the incidence of both was higher in those that were unvaccinated. A study published in Cardiovascular Research, examined the association between vaccination and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in 229,235 individuals with cardiovascular disease. They found no evidence of increased risk of MACE after vaccination.
Each of these large-scale studies were published in reputable, well acknowledged journals, freely available to both Dr Malhotra and his peer reviewers, and they examined precisely the questions Dr Malhotra is asking. But instead of including these (or dozens of other studies like them) Dr Malhotra chose to begin his review paper with a personal anecdote, a previous article of his that suffered from cherry picking, and an infamously flawed abstract that tells us nothing at all. Why did peer review think this was appropriate?
Dr Malhotra’s fondness for peculiar sources doesn’t stop there. One of the very first tables of data to appear in his paper is sourced from an online blog. Another table appears alongside it, which comes from John Ioannidis, who has spent much of the pandemic making unsubstantiated claims over and over and over again. Citing him uncritically is a red flag.
Blog posts are not reputable sources, and do not belong in a scientific paper. Let alone a blog post from the website for Health Advisory & Recovery Team (HART), whose co-founder believes in treating autism with homeopathy, and whose board members have an atrocious record of promoting wild conspiracy theories (including baseless claims of vaccine-induced magnetism, vaccine-induced autism, vaccine-induced fertility damage, 5G/nanotech, mass gene-therapy, earth depopulation, referring to vaccines as ‘bioweapons’, talk of ‘Nuremberg’-related consequences for nurses caught administering the vaccine…) according to leaked chat logs from within the group itself.
The fact that Dr Malhotra chooses to pull figures from a dubious online blog instead of any national health database seems inexplicable, until we glance at the acknowledgements section at the end of his paper, which thanks an uncredited, extra author for behind-the-scenes ‘edits and analysis’. In this case, that author is Dr Clare Craig, a member of HART (who herself often misrepresents data, and once encouraged other HART members to ‘seed the thought that vaccines cause covid before asking the second question of whether that means there is an overall benefit or not…’). Collaborating with an uncredited co-author is itself unusual, let alone one with such close ties to anti-vax disinformation groups.
Malhotra then makes a familiar old argument about how the ‘Absolute Risk Reduction’ in the Pfizer trials was actually alarmingly small compared to the ‘Relative Risk Reduction’, and that this scandalous fact should’ve been made clear to the public in the name of ‘transparency’ and ‘informed consent’.
This has been a common talking point in anti-vax circles for a very long time, and has been repudiated thoroughly over and over again. Dr Malhotra’s peer reviewers clearly did not feel the need to point any of this out.
Dr Malhotra goes on to make further claims that are, in fact, directly contradicted by the very references he uses to support them. He writes that:
Contrary to popular belief, what the trial did not show was any statistically significant reduction in serious illness or COVID-19 mortality from the vaccine over the 6-month period of the trial, but the actual numbers of deaths (attributed to COVID-19) are still important to note. There were only two deaths from COVID-19 in the placebo group and one death from COVID-19 in the vaccine group.
The source he cites here, again, shows no such thing. Instead, the document – an FDA clinical review – shows a 96.7% reduction in severe cases of infection (which is absolutely statistically significant), and it showed six deaths from COVID-19 in the placebo group, and only one in the vaccine group. A far cry from the numbers quoted by Dr Malhotra. Is he misrepresenting the figures on purpose? Or did he simply not read the document he is quoting from? Moreover, if Dr Malhotra is interested in the vaccine’s effect on COVID-19 mortality, it is quite mystifying why he didn’t simply take a look at the shelves of data now available on this very subject.
He then incorrectly claims that a paper in Nature revealed that there was:
…a 25% increase in both acute coronary syndrome and cardiac arrest calls in the 16- to 39-year-old age groups significantly associated with administration with the first and second doses of the mRNA vaccines but no association with COVID-19 infection.
The paper in question (which is actually in Scientific Reports not Nature) comes with a large expression of concern at the top, due to ‘criticisms that are being considered by the Editors’. These criticisms concern clinically irrelevant correlations, basic statistical errors, and flawed methodological approaches. A paper like this cannot tell us very much, and is quite inappropriate for a narrative review.
Baffling logical errors pervade Dr Malhotra’s paper too. He uses work by Fenton et al. to offer a possible explanation for the increase in mortality being seen in unvaccinated people. He writes:
A rise in mortality after vaccination [could have been] misattributed to the unvaccinated population: in other words, those counted as ‘unvaccinated deaths’ would in fact be those who had died within 14 days of being vaccinated.
As evidence for this claim, he writes that:
… a freedom of information [FOI] request has now confirmed that authorities in Sweden were indeed categorising deaths within 14 days of dosing as unvaccinated, creating a misleading picture of efficacy vs death
I probably don’t need to spell this out, but… in order to prove that something is happening in England, you need to prove that it is happening in England. Not that it is happening in Sweden. This is a complete non-sequitur, and doesn’t prove what Dr Malhotra is arguing in the slightest. Furthermore, the ONS in the UK makes it clear that:
An unvaccinated individual is someone who has received no vaccinations.
For the purposes of their statistics, once you have been vaccinated, you are considered ‘vaccinated’. And if we are talking about Sweden, it is worth mentioning that despite having a higher vaccine uptake than the US and a higher booster uptake than the UK – with half of all 12-17 year-olds vaccinated – they are seeing no significant rise in excess deaths:
Sweden is even seeing negative excess deaths among the young, despite very high vaccine uptake. If Dr Malhotra has any theories as to why these supposedly ‘unprecedentedly’ harmful vaccines are choosing to spare Sweden, I’d love to hear them. Perhaps the spike protein’s pathological influence wanes substantially upon exposure to ABBA. A dubious theory, perhaps, but nevertheless – even if partially correct…
Speaking of which, Dr Malhotra also seems to demonstrate a basic misunderstanding of how vaccines work at all. In speculating about what the ‘mechanism of harm’ could be, he writes that:
For ‘conventional vaccines’, an inert part of the bacteria or virus is used to ‘educate’ the immune system. The immune stimulus is limited, localised and short-lived. For the COVID-19 vaccines, spike protein has been shown to be produced continuously (and in unpredictable amounts) for at least four months after vaccination.
Dr Malhotra appears to have never heard of ‘live attenuated vaccines’, which have been around for hundreds of years and use versions of ‘living’ viruses, rather than inert parts of the virus. And, of course, the reference that Dr Malhotra provides in support of the ‘unpredictable’ spike protein claim shows nothing of the sort.
When discussing the incidence of vaccine-induced myocarditis in young adults, under the subtitle ‘What are the harms?’, he writes that:
Although vaccine-induced myocarditis is not often fatal in young adults, MRI scans reveal that, of the ones admitted to hospital, approximately 80 % have some degree of myocardial damage. It is like suffering a small heart attack and sustaining some – likely permanent – heart muscle injury. It is uncertain how this will play out in the longer-term…
Patients with vaccine-associated myocarditis… demonstrated rapid clinical improvement with no adverse events over short-term follow-up.
That’s certainly a far cry from ‘it’s like a small heart attack’ and ‘likely permanent muscle damage’. Of course, exaggerating the so-called ‘harms’ of the vaccine, while minimising the harms of COVID-19 itself, is a long-standing manoeuvre in covid casuistry, and it’s certainly a recurring theme in Dr Malhotra’s paper. But again, it’s simply not borne out by the vast amounts of better evidence. If he had simply glanced at some of the large-scale, high quality research pertaining to vaccine-induced myocarditis – such as this NEJM study, which found that it was ‘rare, mild… and benign over a follow-up period of six months’ (even in the highest risk age group) – his alarm might’ve been assuaged.
For someone so interested in vaccine injuries, Dr Malhotra demonstrates a lack of curiosity about what the actual research says on the matter. It’s not as if these studies are difficult to find. They are, almost all of them, published by internationally acknowledged journals, whose names are readily familiar to any scientist (unlike The Journal of Insulin Resistance), and they are all directly germane to his field of interest.
Dr Malhotra chooses instead to use ominous anecdotes and emotionally loaded language to foster a sinister inkling in his readers, making them more likely to overlook the little inaccuracies in his analysis, and less likely to check his sources. Conspiratorial suspicions often encourage a particularly relentless kind of confirmation bias, where data inconsistencies don’t matter and eerie coincidences do. A hunch can be a powerful thing.
But narrative reviews aren’t supposed to feel like a whodunnit. They are supposed to be an objective analysis of all the key, relevant research around a topic, irrespective of whether or not they fit your hunch. If you are unwilling or incapable of looking at a wider portfolio of evidence, you may not be ideally suited to authoring a narrative review.
One thing should be very clear by now. If there exists any compelling evidence that vaccines are causing ‘unprecedented harm’, it is not present in this paper. Almost no good quality evidence is. If this paper represents the best that the vaccine-critical movement has to offer, they do not have a leg to stand on. Dr Malhotra consistently distorts the findings of reputable studies, overstates the findings of dreadful ones, and omits everything else. This is not standard, scholarly practice. By extension, every single reporter and journalist that amplified this paper in order to foment vaccine-hesitancy is, in effect, publicly declaring that they do not care about good evidence. I suppose, in this way, we should all be indebted to Dr Malhotra for providing us with this rather handy litmus test for the integrity of pandemic pundits.
Needless to say, at no point in the rest of his paper does Dr Malhotra ever offer any further evidence that the vaccine contributed to his father’s death. We are simply enjoined to take his word for it, and inflame our own hunches. Although, amazingly, he does dedicate a later section to railing against ‘biassed reporting in medical journals’. Irony, it seems, did survive the peer review process.
The interviews and appearances Dr Malhotra has given in the aftermath of his paper’s publication leave no doubt about his new career path, and his newfound ideological bedfellows. The infamous Steve Kirsch hosted Dr Malhotra at a VIP dinner event in Texas, alongside Peter McCullough. Tickets began at $150, and went up to $500 for a ‘private meet-and-greet cocktail reception’. In addition to appearing on GB News and Tucker Carlson Today, Dr Malhotra has also given interviews to Del Bigtree and Children’s Health Defence, both of whom have spent years promoting Andrew Wakefield’s spurious claims about the MMR vaccine and autism. (Dr Malhotra himself lamented the “very worrying” reduced uptake of the MMR vaccine in recent years, despite simultaneously working with the very groups that campaign most ferociously for this exact goal).
Most appallingly of all, Dr Malhotra promoted a video that attributed the death of a 15-year-old child to the vaccine, when the child in question was not even vaccinated. She died of a complication associated with COVID-19 infection on the day she was due to get her first dose of the vaccine, having tested positive four days previously. Misrepresenting the death of a child is, even by anti-vax standards, breath-taking.
But perhaps the most telling moment came from a panel appearance at an event hosted by the World Council for Health (itself a hotbed of 5G conspiracy theory and anti-vax sentiment). In the Q&A section near the end of the event, at around the 2:27:57 mark, an audience member asks Dr Malhotra if he ‘still believes in airborne viruses’ at all. After a brief, awkward pause he laughs – nervously – and then passes the microphone to another panellist. Watching him sit there, shifting uncomfortably in his seat as the moderator attempted some kind of answer, I couldn’t help but feel that perhaps Dr Malhotra is just a little bit unsettled by his new fanbase.
Perhaps even the ‘highly esteemed, award-winning* cardiologist’ Aseem Malhotra feels a little out of his depth in the wild new world he has entered. Perhaps, on some level, he didn’t fully know what he was getting himself into. Maybe someday, years down the line, this very moment will constitute the basis of another change of heart. Perhaps Dr Malhotra will eventually see the error of his ways, recognise the seismic flaws in his analysis, and commit himself to a higher standard of scholarly practice. The world of woo is full of defectors, after all. Who knows? There may yet come a day when Dr Malhotra joins the ranks of those who regret having turned a blind eye to better evidence, and admit when they were wrong.