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Seed oils: how a panic over cooking fats is lubricating the alt-right pipeline

Alice Howarth
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Seed oils: how a panic over cooking fats is lubricating the alt-right pipeline

It’s hard to articulate how the skeptical ‘spidey sense’ works, but sometimes you notice something and you just know there’s more to it, there’s a story there. For example, I consume a lot of wellness and diet content – they are some of my particular areas of interest when it comes to skeptical writing and research.

Recently I’ve noticed that, in these wellness-adjacent spaces, there are more and more casual, passing comments that demonise seed oils. In the TikTok world of micro-trends, it’s these passing comments that indicate the macro trends. Even the choice of terminology is interesting.

I first came across the notion of cooking fats being a priority in the nutritional world several years ago, as part of an educational weight-loss programme that aims to build ‘healthy habits’ and encourage a ‘healthy relationship with food’, without the typical diet method of restricting or avoiding certain food-types. Cooking oils can be split into three categories: refined, virgin or extra virgin/cold pressed. The programme argued that extra virgin or cold-pressed oils have undergone less processing and therefore have more nutrients and fewer polyunsaturated fatty acid chains, and polyunsaturated fatty acids lead to more inflammation. But they weren’t critical of vegetable oils in particular just because of the source, only that those oils are more likely to be refined.

They backed up these opinions with a detailed explanation of fatty acid chains and nods towards ‘studies’ that they claimed supported their conclusions, but gave no specific citations. They told me that ‘vegetable oils’ was a bit of a useless label because very few vegetables actually are used to make cooking oils – mostly, vegetable oils come from seeds, grains or legumes. But this information about cooking oil choice was only a small part of a much wider programme examining habit formation and food relationships, including the idea that a sustainable diet has to incorporate the things we love instead of restricting things we consider ‘unhealthy’.

The programme explained that adding fat to the diet is important – including a portion of (ideally healthy) fat in each meal, alongside a source of protein, can help us feel more satisfied, and reduce our need to snack or eat in excess. It’s a lesson a lot of ‘intuitive eaters’ promote – instead of restricting certain food types, find ways to add to them to make a snack or meal more balanced and filling. The idea is that nothing is off limits, but if you want to eat less of a particular thing, telling yourself to stick to willpower alone isn’t sustainable, because as soon as you’re tired or grumpy your willpower drops. Instead, it’s claimed, it’s easier to stick to a healthier eating plan if you’re don’t deny yourself the things you love but find ways to make them more satisfying and filling in a balanced way.

An array of breakfast foods and white crockery laid out in a large spread with coffee, spreads etc.
A large breakfast spread, featuring a few types of fat. By contatoartpix, via Pixabay

I’m not passing comment specifically on whether these approaches are useful or not – I think diet is very personal and we have to figure out what works for us. But social media has taken concepts like these and built on them. Which is why we’ve moved from ‘avoiding extreme fat restriction can be helpful when it comes to eating healthily in a sustainable way’ to ‘animal fat is amazing’, and from ‘cooking oil choice might be relevant to how we build our diet’ to ‘seed oils are evil’.

Take for example, Troy Casey, Certified Healthnut (his description, not mine) who warns us that “seed oils are industrial oils designed to help lubricate machine equipment”, and claims:

Canola is a genetically engineered modified plant… These things are known as PUFAs – polyunsaturated fatty acids, these wreak havoc in the body and create imbalances.

These PUFAs I do believe are omega 6 and so when the vegetables are up and the omega 3s or the meats are down and so that creates imbalance in the system. It can gum up our tissues.

Troy claims it’s so important to boost our omega-3 fatty acids, which lower inflammation, because we used to hunt and gather – and, presumably, we need to get back to more of that way of life.

Meanwhile Revival Coach Bryan warns us that “these supposedly ‘heart healthy’ fats are not good for us at all” – according to Bryan, it’s because they’re polyunsaturated fats and therefore very unstable and prone to oxidising in our body, which causes increased aging. What is our alternative? According to Bryan, we need to cook with more butter, animal fats or coconut oils, because they’re saturated fats – and, according to Bryain, that means they’re stable.

Bryan tells his audience that polyunsaturated cooking oils have been promoted as healthy while saturated fats labelled as unhealthy, but we’ve been lied to ‘for decades’ – it’s actually the other way around, which is why we see declining health in the population.

Meanwhile on the TikTok account Total Health with Dr Nick, we’re told seed oils are incredibly high in omega-6, and that’s the reason they’re so inflammatory. But omega-3 fats are anti-inflammatory. Nick’s issue is that seed oils are produced using dangerous methods, with hexane and heat and pressure that denatures the oil, makes it rancid and therefore inflammatory to the body. Notice that, according to Nick, the primary cause of inflammation is the presence of omega-6… but the primary cause is also that seed oils are rancid. Such contradictions occur when we misattribute science to justify our false beliefs.

Dr Nick goes further, claiming that seed oils even hang around in the body, because cell membranes are made of fat and the fat gets into the membranes, making those cells toxic. Dr Nick tells us to use tallow from beef, lard, avocado oil, olive oil, coconut oil or ghee, which is a clarified butter, instead. Which conflicts with what we’re told by other influencers, who think olive oil is bad because it’s often cut with seed oils, while others inform us that olive oil is only fine if you’re not heating it.

These talking points are probably familiar – the idea that the very nature of processing a foodstuff is what leads it to cause harm is straight out of the ultra-processed foods play book, but there’s even more to the seed oil panic than that.

This conversation has everything. Troy ‘the certified healthnut’ tries to scare us by telling us that seed oils are industrial oils, insisting that canola oil is a GM plant and it’s used for lubricating machine equipment. Canola oil, also known as rapeseed oil, has been around for thousands of years – we know it was used as a lamp fuel in the 16th century. It is true that its use as a foodstuff came later than it’s use as a fuel source, but is that a sign that it’s unhealthy? Obviously not.

A pile of turmeric powder on a white surface, with a wooden spoon holding some of the powder to the left, resting beside the pile.
Turmeric has many health claims associated with it. Image via Marina Pershina, Public Domain Pictures

Consider turmeric, for example – the health food that many wellness influencers are evangelic about. Turmeric was used as a dye long before we realised how tasty it was as a spice, or started to use it in folk medicine. Just because something is repurposed does not make it bad or dangerous.

The rapeseed we use to make canola oil is indeed often from GM crops, but the modification is to make it resistant to pesticides, nothing more. And while it is used as a lubricant for machinery, that doesn’t mean that food-grade canola oil is unsafe to eat.

The panic over seed oils has all the trappings of conspiracism – with its unspoken “they” who have been manipulating our food and lying to us about it. We also see misinterpreted science: seed oils have proportionally more omega-6 than other cooking oil sources, but omega-6 is an essential fatty acid, our body needs it and cannot produce it. Some people claim that the body converts linolenic acid, one of the common omega-6 fatty acids, into another fatty acid called arachidonic acid, which is a building block for inflammatory molecules. But the evidence for this doesn’t stack up – it’s possible that omega-6 actually reduces inflammatory markers in the body.

Now consider that the recommended alternative sources of fats always come down to tallow or butter – this is because a lot of the influencers on the “seed oils are bad” train are also promoters of the ‘carnivore diet’… which could arguably be an evolution of the sometimes-trendy ketogenic diet.

From ‘keto’ to ‘carnivore’, from ‘vegetable fats’ to ‘seed oil’ – this shift in language isn’t inconsequential, it relates to a shift in ideological position. It is part of a shift toward alt-right talking points: traditional values, hyper-femininity for women, hyper-masculinity for men, and the idea that we should aspire to living on a homestead and eat real meat, maybe even raw meat, and cook using beef tallow.

Joe Rogan has been talking about avoiding seed oils since 2016, after learning about their supposed harms from fitness blogger Mark Sisson in January that year. By 2021, it was a regular Rogan talking point, and it was having an influence on his audience. According to an article in Rolling Stone:

Derek Beres, the co-author of the book Conspirituality: How New Age Conspiracy Theories Became a Health Threat, says he first started noticing whispers about seed oils being hazardous to your health when he saw Paul Saladino, aka Carnivore MD, an influencer with more than two million Instagram followers who advocates for a primarily animal-based diet, speaking about it on Joe Rogan’s podcast.

Meanwhile Twitter user Carnivore Aurelius started talking about it in 2021 to over 300,000 Twitter followers linking seed oil to an increase in obesity and cardiovascular disease alongside tweets about traditional family values and the scam of feminism.

Seed oil fear has been an alt-right talking point for a while, but lately it seems like something’s changed, arguably due to the radicalisation pipeline. Whether by design or by consequence, the oil you cook your food with is a great way to radicalise people to a particular ideology. Food is something we all consume and something that has been the subject of scrutiny for decades.

As health trends drift in and out of fashion we’re often in a cycle where what we choose to eat is seen as a signifier of wealth, political viewpoints, moral stance. It even influences perception of core parts of our personality and identity, like work-ethic or selflessness: picky eating can be dismissed as selfishness, using pre-prepared foods considered laziness, choosing veganism seen as moralistic. Buying lunch during the work day can be seen as luxury or frivolity depending on who you’re talking to (or how you’re already perceived by society). 

Food is something we have to think about multiple times a day, every single day. Once you’ve developed a fear about a particular foodstuff it can be very hard to break, and it can permeate into every moment of your day, from what time you wake up (got to have enough time to prepare whole foods instead of eating ultra-processed foods) to what your bedtime routine looks like (got to prepare lunch for tomorrow to save money and health on a shop bought lunch).

Centre that fear in the very fuel source you cook your food in and now you’re scrutinising and thinking about the fear-mongering position at every single meal. It’s easy to see how that can become an ideological position. Create a fear, link it to something as fundamental as eating, encourage the thought of that fear on multiple occasions during the day (even when food shopping or meal prepping for the week ahead), and you’ve snuck a position into someone’s daily life. Now they’re thinking about ‘clean’ or ‘traditional’ or ‘masculine’ dietary choices multiple times a day, every single day.

Once caught in this ideological trap, you might start evangelising to your friends about your new cooking habits and, if they question whether cooking everything in beef tallow is good idea (because society encourages us all to have and share opinions on other people’s food choices), then you might feel pushed away by the ‘mainstream’ and spend more time consuming content and gaining community from the people who share your viewpoint.

One minute it’s about making ‘healthy’ choices about food, the next it’s that eating meat is actively better for you, and then it’s that maybe climate change isn’t real – it’s just a way for vegans to force you to reduce your meat intake. Soon, you’re sneering at the ultra-processed foods in the vegan diet and processed meat replacements. And you’re thinking that maybe you should consider eating raw meats, or drinking raw milk, and really wouldn’t it be great to live the homestead life where your wife wears pretty dresses and has dinner on the table when you get home from work.

And when RFK Jr comes after your seed oils, saying the American population is being “unknowingly poisoned” by them, it’s easy to trust his understanding of the ‘science’ because you’ve known that seed oils are terrible for years… so maybe he’s right about the rise in autism and the need to control it, too?

The radicalisation pipeline is a dangerous one, but it’s not one that is always easy to see, or track. It’s easy to dismiss seed oil concerns as just a lack of scientific understanding, easy to assume that people are misguided about health. It’s even easy to laugh at the alt-right’s interest in seed oils as silly, but it seems clear to me that seed oil fears are being used as a talking point to draw people into that alt-right radicalisation pathway.

Algorithmic Astrology: the digital age of pseudoscience

Hayley Stevens
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Algorithmic Astrology: the digital age of pseudoscience

You don’t have to look very far these days to find affirmations designed to sell you the idea that through positive thought alone, you too could lead a fulfilled life if you just learned to get a grip – as though the sole author of your personal happiness is you.

Not happy? Not fulfilled? Have you tried following this CEO guru’s 5am smoothie, supplement, and loneliness regime? Have you tried this mushroom coffee? Have you tried this CBD facemask that will make your deepest, darkest fears (and crows feet) go away? 96% of 11 people would recommend it.

Statistics show that in 2023/24 alone, 3.1 million people in the UK reported that they often feel lonely, while 776,000 UK workers reported experiencing work-related stress, depression or anxiety. When so many people are struggling, in a country where day-to-day life is made harder by increased cost of living and the scarcity of affordable housing, is it so surprising that people turn to whatever methods are most likely to provide the reassurance they need that everything is going to be okay?

Welcome, then, to the new age of the new age – AI Astrology. Astrology and other forms of divination have long been a subject of interest for people seeking reassurance that everything is going to be alright in the end. However, in recent years, horoscopes have experienced something of an upgrade and resurgence, driven by algorithmically powered apps like Co–Star, The Pattern, and AstroSage AI. All boast millions of active users, particularly among younger generations, drawn by promises of the ability to “hack” your life to achieve your goals through highly personalised mystical insights into your personality, relationships, and future.

A woman with long brown hair sits cross-legged with black over-ear headphones on, which are plugged into her smartphone, as she uses one hand to navigate its screen
It’s not surprising people are seeking reassurance in today’s climate. Image by Karoline Grabowska, via Pexels

Astrology’s transformation from mystical charts and columns in the back of tabloids to sleek apps has been remarkable, if not (somewhat ironically) predictable. While astrologers once drew their charts by hand, modern platforms now promise precision through algorithms trained on NASA data (Co-Star’s website claims they’re ‘hacking tech, culture and consciousness to build new practices for reflection and collectivity’, whatever that means.)

The Pattern and Sanctuary offer behavioural astrology (a fancy way of saying birth charts), as well as in-app virtual interactions, which create immersive-feeling, personalised experiences (which are, of course, anything but personalised). Apps like Nebula and AstroSage AI blends traditional astrological approaches with AI-driven interfaces, further enhancing their appeal by offering mystical traditions with a new age sciencey-sounding edge to them. But The Pattern avoids traditional astrology jargon, instead describing “patterns” of emotional behaviour or relationships identified via algorithmic analysis of birth data and personality assessments. Or, as you might know it, astrology.

Why they work

This presentation of astrology is appealing, because it offers reassurance at your fingertips from wherever you left your phone. It’s a total vibe. However, beneath the polished veneer of technological sophistication lies an ancient, unscientific and very basic practice that uses vague or universally applicable statements that foster a sense of accuracy and personal relevance in their interpretations.

The tool of trade for any astrologer, psychic, fortune teller, or writer of personality tests, the Forer Effect is a commonly experienced psychological phenomenon where people perceive generic, broad statements as uniquely meaningful to themselves. Astrology in all forms capitalises heavily on this cognitive bias, and the latest apps are no different. The effect is a powerful illusion of accuracy and personalisation, prompting users to attribute credibility to the predictions, which fuels app loyalty and repeated usage.

At first glance it sounds complicatedly mystical; AI astrology apps deliver personalised and profound insights to subscribers through the use of predictive algorithms. The apps gather user data including birth dates, times, and locations, to generate birth charts and daily predictions.

Yet, despite the technological complexity involved (which, frankly, seems like choosing the difficult way to read horoscopes) the output remains fundamentally vague, ensuring widespread accuracy. I have long used tarot cards and tasseography to provide my friends and family with ridiculous, clearly made-up predictions about their lives and futures, based on the experiences I’ve had while checking out dozens of psychic fairs over the years. It’s relatively easy to cold read people, because Forer statements are easy to use when you know how.

A deck of tarot cards with a few spread out on a table, by a lit candle in a glass holder
A deck of tarot cards. Photo by subarasikiai, via Pixabay

The difference is that while Marc or Lou might offer card readings for a tenner at your local community centre on a Saturday morning, they will never have the presence, marketing or reach of these apps. But despite their complex algorithms and sophisticated graphics that offer further illusion of scientific rigor, the underlying process remains as arbitrary as the standard astrological practices being flogged elsewhere.

Ultimately, the effectiveness of astrology apps relies heavily on cognitive biases like confirmation bias, and the human desire for meaning. Consumers of astrology and other forms of divination often subconsciously search for confirmation of pre-existing beliefs about themselves, readily accepting vague predictions as deeply personal insights. This is no different.

Moreover, emotional engagement drives reliance on such platforms – those who find comfort in daily affirmations, reassuring messages, and profound-sounding insights into the challenges they face in life will keep coming back for more and will share the apps with their friends and followers. Download today and you could hack your future – again and again.

Why it matters

As a result, astrology apps and their addictive quality isn’t anything profound; it’s a psychological mechanism embedded within algorithm-driven content designed to keep people coming back, to ensure the app turns a profit. And here’s the crux of why this matters: the growing dependence on astrology apps raises concerns for the users, who increasingly base crucial decisions in their lives on the algorithm-generated horoscopes they receive; from career moves and relationship commitments, to financial investments and more.

While astrology apps have cleverly adapted ancient practices for the digital age, the use of algorithmic predictions to create illusions of accuracy through cognitive biases remains fundamentally pseudoscientific. Users and developers alike should recognise that, despite technological advancements, astrology’s core methodology – rooted in techniques like the Forer Effect, and underscored by an increasingly unsure and unhappy population – remains unchanged.

Developers have an ethical responsibility to clarify that these apps are entertainment, rather than scientifically validated advisory tools, and skeptics need to actively highlight this distinction, promoting media literacy and critical thinking. Encouraging skepticism about the scientific legitimacy of algorithmic astrology protects consumers from potential harm resulting from misplaced trust in pseudoscientific practices.

You do not have to look far to see how being offered vague messages about your life by an algorithm has potential to cause harm. All things considered, maybe we should have seen it coming?

The Skeptic Podcast: Episode #012

The Skeptic Podcast
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The Skeptic Podcast: Episode #012

The Skeptic podcast, bringing you the best of the magazine’s expert analysis of pseudoscience, conspiracy theory and claims of the paranormal since its relaunch as online news source in September 2020. 

On this episode:

Subscribe to the show wherever you get your podcasts, or to support the show, take out a small voluntary donation at patreon.com/theskeptic.

Did pirates and a First Nations chief help kick-start the Enlightenment?

Ted Lefroy
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Did pirates and a First Nations chief help kick-start the Enlightenment?
Cover of "Pirate Englightenment, or the real libertalia" by David Graeber. Descriptions on the red cover include "Co-author of The Dawn of Everything", "Author of Debt: the First 5,000 Years" and "feisty, heroic... a highly original thinker and a wonderful writer", attributed to Peter Frankopan, the New York Times. Published by Penguin.
Cover of “Pirate Englightenment, or the real libertalia” by David Graeber

Mention the Enlightenment today and there’s a good chance you’ll find yourself in a debate about its contribution to scientific racism, modern imperialism, exploitation, and genocide. A question not raised as often is whether the Enlightenment ideal of rational individualism was a truly ‘Western’ project.

The big idea at the heart of this book, one that Graeber expanded on in his 2021 best seller with David Wengrow The Dawn of Everything, is that the Enlightenment was not solely the product of European thought and European thinkers, but was influenced by the societies Europeans encountered when they began sailing the world in search of trade and treasure.

The hero in The Dawn of Everything is Kandiaronk, a Wendat chief from the eastern shores of Great Lakes who debated politics over dinner with the governor of Montreal, visited Paris, ridiculed the French for their passive allegiance to an all-powerful king, and shamed them for their callous treatment of the poor. His story spawned a play, an opera and animated discussion in the Enlightenment salon of Madame de Tenchin. All of which, according to Graeber, was well known to Jean Jacques Rousseau, whose essay Discourse on Inequality became a major influence on Enlightenment thought by arguing that inequality was not a natural phenomenon but a product of society.

In Pirate Enlightenment, Graeber charts the rise and fall of a colony of ex-Caribbean pirates hiding out on the east coast of Madagascar at the beginning of the eighteenth century. Numbering a thousand at their peak and intermarried with the Malagasy, their descendants the Zana-Malata organised a loose federation of autonomous egalitarian settlements, the Betsimisaraka (‘many inseparables’) Confederacy under Ratsimilaho, son of English pirate Thomas Thew and Malagasy princess Antavaratra Rahena. While this experiment in democracy only lasted from 1720 to 1756, the Betsimisaraka are listed as the second largest ethnic group in Madagascar today making up fifteen percent of the population.

A small, mostly white boat floats on turquoise seawater in a shallow bay by a white sand beach covered in palm trees, below a blue lightly clouded sky - the Caribbean
A beach in today’s Caribbean. Via Petr Kratochvil, publicdomainpictures.net

Inequality is a theme that runs through Graeber’s work from his doctoral studies in Madagascar to his role in the Occupy movement and his many essays. Hierarchies of power might be everywhere Graeber argues, but they are neither natural nor inevitable.

There are many other ways to organise society, the pirate code being a case in point. Pirate captains were elected by the crew and all decisions put to the vote except in battle, the rationale being that the mutinous behaviour which led to piracy would become a never-ending cycle if pirates adopted the strict hierarchical command structure of ships at sea.

Madagascar became a refuge for Atlantic pirates when they discovered there were greater riches in the Indian Ocean that were less well protected than Spanish treasure ships and Caribbean traders. Adam Baldridge from Jamaica was the first to arrive in 1690, setting himself up as commercial agent to New York ‘business man’ Samuel Philipse. A string of others soon followed, including Thomas Thew (1693), Henry Avery (1694), Captain William Kidd (1694) – who was sent to supress piracy and switched sides, Robert Culliford (1696), Edward Welsh (1698), Nathaniel North (1699) and Thomas White (1704).

The pirates’ presence not only seeded an experiment in democracy by bringing their code on to shore, but they also put on a show for European visitors that was as carefully stage managed as any Potemkin village, convincing East India Company agent Clement Dowling that their confederacy dominated the south-west Indian Ocean with:

“…thousands of pirates and confederates of all nations, with a vast fleet of warships, seeking allies.”

The Swedish government signed a treaty with their envoys in 1718 before discovering the ruse, and Peter the Great briefly contemplated an alliance to establish a Russian colony in Madagascar. But the lasting legacy of this experiment in governance was its influence on popular culture through Captain Charles Johnson’s play, The Successful Pyrate, published in 1712, the year the first pirate envoys arrived in France, Daniel Defoe’s book The King of Pirates published in1720, and Johnson’s 1724 A General History of the Pyrates.

If you search for accommodation on the east coast of Madagascar today, you’ll find rooms at the beachfront Hotel Libertalia on Ile Sainte Marie from £51 a night, located in the cove where Adam Baldridge founded the town of that name in 1691. Here’s how Graeber describes Libertalia in its heyday:

“…a notorious pirate base with fortress, refitting centre and emporium, replete with a small town, whose population might fluctuate depending on the season between a few score to over a thousand active and retired freebooters, runaways, escapees of one sort or another, along with their various Malagasy wives, allies, merchants and hangers on.”

Madame de Techin’s was the first of the Enlightenment salons in Paris to welcome foreign visitors, and it’s not hard to imagine how eagerly her ‘menagerie of beasts’, as she referred to her guests, might have embraced libertarian tales from the other side of the world.

Pirate Enlightenment, Or The Real Libertalia, David Graeber, Penguin 2024 (originally published as Les Pirates des Lumieres by Libertalia Press, Paris 2019)

Got any leads? Dog thieves won’t really leave secret signs outside your house

Brian Eggo
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Got any leads? Dog thieves won’t really leave secret signs outside your house

Let’s brainstorm together! We’re writing a script for yet another sequel in the 101 Dalmations franchise, and we need to conjure up a suitably contrived canine kidnap contrivance. What equipment will Jasper and Horace need this time round? Van – check! Binoculars – check! Cage – check! Balaclava – check! Gloves – check! Lead – check! Muzzle – check! Comedically large steak – check. Stickers – what? We’re definitely going to need stickers. No, not gold star stickers for a well-executed dog-napping. Stickers for marking which houses have nice stealable doggos. Yes, walking around neighbourhoods putting stickers on things may cause suspicion. If our movie is going to be set in the modern era, then there are doorbell cameras and CCTV to consider too.

Bull-dog

It’s a reasonable enough plot for a caper-filled 90 minutes of Disney animation with a guaranteed happy ending, but there are people who seem to think it could form part of a gritty factual documentary. As such, they’re willing to mentally hurdle the implications of marking targets in such an obvious way, or be so blissfully free of the desire to think things through that they’ll happily swallow and regurgitate warnings about adhesive-wielding ne’er do wells with a hankering for a hound heist.

Doberman pincher

So, where is this implausible plot coming from? Well, mostly social media of course. It seems like we have yet another unsinkable rubber duck popping up once again. In a local community Facebook group I’m part of, a post from a presumably well-meaning member warned us all about unusual stickers that have been spotted on lampposts, gates, and fences around town, with the suspicion that they’re from criminal gangs marking houses of dog owners with those stickers in order to target them. As well as setting off my skeptical spider senses, it also rang a bell. With a little searching, it’s easy to find a long trail of such warnings spanning back over a decade.

From IOL South Africa earlier this year:
“There has been a warning about thieves using coloured stickers to designate locations where they intend to take dogs.”.

From a 2022 social media post:
“just had a grey polo pull up in front of house and put a dog nose sticker on the car. drove off when confronted. suspecting a dog kidnap gang. has anyone experienced similar”.

From the Lancashire Telegraph in 2021:
“Warning to UK dog owners over thieves as stickers appear on homes”.

From Cornwall News in 2020:
“Pet owners warned against dognappers after worrying sticker is left outside home”.

From the Alberton Record in 2016:
“Apparently criminals are marking homes with coloured stickers or other symbols in order to steal dogs to use in dog fighting events”.

From Yahoo News in 2015:
“Secret Burglar Signs Tell Thieves If Owner’s Dog Is Worth Stealing”.

One of the earliest messages, back in 2013, on the Champdogs Forum, with what appears to be an extra dose of racism:
“Hi everyone just to warn everyone dogs in north Ayrshire ie Irvine kilbirnie etc Asian people are driving round in van marking gates then coming back to steal them I was warned by fellow dog owners.”

Pug life

To add to the news stories, blog posts, and social media warnings, it seems like a number of companies who are desperate to sell you security cameras and alarm systems for your house are happy to jump on the bandwagon too, with similar messaging in amongst lists of other things to be terrified of. Participating in this scaremongering are Alfred Camera, Blakefire Security,  Zosi,  Safewise, Arlo, and Metro Security to name but a few.

A pack of Shih Tzu

So, is this actually something to be worried about? The short answer is no. The longer answer is also no, but with some extra supporting information. Snopes actually covered this pretty well way back in 2013 to start with. It stands to reason that if you wanted to share details of a potential pooch poaching opportunity with your criminal gang then you could just have a group chat in an encrypted messaging app (as long as you don’t accidentally add a journalist to it). Or, if you’re old school, just write addresses down on a piece of paper.

It’s also worth noting that there are variations in the story between dogs being stolen to take part in dog fighting, or pedigree dogs for their resale value, or sometimes it’s not related to dogs at all, but just regular burglary. Somewhat embarrassingly, my local Police service fell for this some years back and posted some warning messages on social media to ‘Break the housebreakers code’.

Once again, Snopes came to the rescue shortly afterwards. There are even a few rare examples of children apparently being the target of the sticker markings – in one case causing a local Police Department to issue a statement calling the rumours unfounded. These types of messages continue to do the rounds from time to time, mostly because it’s seen as helpful to the people around you to warn them of potential harm, but the unnecessary fear they cause is harmful in itself.

Golden Deceiver

Are dogs actually at risk of being stolen though? Well, yes, but almost certainly not to any significant level. The numbers are hard to pin down precisely, because laws specifically about pet theft were only introduced in 2024, and only apply to England and Northern Ireland. Scotland and Wales may follow suit in the future. This means that the dog theft statistics we have to go on currently contain a reasonable amount of guesswork.

A policy paper for the proposed Scottish Dog Theft Bill cites 88 incidents for 2020-21, which represented an increase from previous years, and was attributed to increased demand for dogs during the pandemic. It is suspected that some criminal gangs were involved in these thefts, which is unsurprising considering the eye-watering cost of some pedigree dogs. It’s also worth noting that the cited numbers in the paper exclude domestic disputes, which may explain the higher number of 200 in a Scotsman article from the same year. Either way, those numbers barely register when considering the total number of dogs in Scotland, which is estimated to be between 800,000 and 1,000,000 according to the same policy paper.

Hoarder Collie

So, if you’re a dog owner, your four-legged friend is probably going to be just fine as long as you pay reasonable attention. Those unsinkable rubber ducks will probably be fine too unfortunately, so keep your eyes out for the next time they pop up – in whatever form they may take.

Latest studies map conspiracy theories in Brazil and Latin America

Cesar Baima
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Latest studies map conspiracy theories in Brazil and Latin America

The adage that astrology is the “gateway” to other pseudosciences has never been more true. A survey of conspiracy theory groups on Telegram covering Brazil and Latin America shows that adherence to anti-vaccine communities or those that promote quackery, such as chlorine dioxide (CDS) and the so-called Mineral Miracle Solution (another formulation also based on chlorine dioxide, a disinfectant and industrial bleach presented as a substance for a supposed “vaccine detox” from the COVID-19 pandemic, or even to cure the disease) has a strong connection with occult and esoteric groups.

Screenshot of a Telegram community chat in which there's a photo of an adult cradles a baby in one arm as they administer chlorine dioxide (CDS) into the baby's mouth with their other hand, using a syringe. Texts below defend the practice and share instructions on how to obtain the substance.
Image of a baby receiving chlorine dioxide through a syringe, with texts defending the practice and instructions on how to obtain the substance, published in a Telegram community

The discovery, however, is just one of many revelations from the survey conducted by Brazilian Ergon Cugler, a researcher at the National Research Council (CNPq) at the São Paulo School of Business Administration at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (EAESP-FGV). The work resulted in a series of seven studies focused on different aspects of conspiracy theories in Brazil and their interrelations, as well as an interactive map detailing its popularity and reach in 19 Latin American countries and territories.

Climate denialism and anti-science, for example, appear as a path to broader conspiracism, such as the New World Order, Globalism, QAnon and other theories of global domination. These, in turn, open the door to more harmful groups and religious radicalisation, with the framing of society’s conflicts as part of a true “spiritual battle” for the future of Humanity. Manipulation is also very present in apocalyptic, survivalist, occult and esoteric communities, where it serves to sell “quantum courses” and “miracle cures” such as CDS and MMS, in a cycle of misinformation dissemination and monetisation that feeds itself.

In search of data

The survey began in 2023, when Cugler was a member of the Brazilian Institute of Information in Science and Technology (Ibict), a research unit linked to the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI). Cugler developed a free, open source software called TelegramScrap to automatically extract and organise data from open groups and channels on Telegram. The tool searched for certain keywords, as well as identifying “related communities” suggested by the application itself, and links and invitations to other Telegram channels and groups published in those conversations.

Cugler points out that one of the advantages of using Telegram for this type of survey is that, unlike other messaging apps like WhatsApp, when you join a community on Telegram you can read all the posts made there in the past. In some cases, his system was able to recover posts dating back to December 2015, almost a decade ago, providing a broad overview of conspiracy theories and their advance in recent years in Brazil and Latin America.

With the help of TelegramScrap – and constant work to update the interactive map – Cugler analysed more than 58 million pieces of conspiracy theory content published by around 5.3 million users across over 800 communities and channels on Telegram, which he divided into 15 categories ranging from “conspiracy theory in general” to “reptilians and creatures”, including “climate change”, “UFOs” and “flat earthers”. More than half of the content was identified as being of Brazilian origin, as were around half of the users. Together, this content has accumulated views in the order of tens of billions, hundreds of millions of shares and tens of millions of reactions.

“I’m happy to have the data, but sad to see the volume”, he laments. “This project was born looking only at Brazil as part of Ibict’s effort in partnership with other ministries and the federal government to think about strategies to combat disinformation. But over time I expanded it to include 19 countries on the continent, and another category, which is transnational conspiracy theories, which cross borders.”

Screenshot of a Telegram channel. Chlorine-based products recommended on a conspiracy theory channel on Telegram have labels in Spanish, highlighting the transnational nature of some networks
Chlorine-based products recommended on a conspiracy theory channel on Telegram have labels in Spanish, highlighting the transnational nature of some networks

The researcher emphasises, however, that the survey is not intended to be exhaustive. For example, closed communities are excluded, whose content can only be accessed with the permission of the group owners, and therefore cannot be searched by his tool. He also cannot determine with certainty the nationality of users or communities, making the classification based on indirect clues, such as the language used, mentions of the names of countries, use of their flags in the group descriptions, and addresses for orders and deliveries of the products sold.

“I can’t tell if the user is Brazilian, Colombian or Peruvian, but I know that the community is Brazilian if it’s in Portuguese, or Peruvian if it has a Peruvian flag and talks about Peru. The users in these communities tend to be from that geographic area, but there may be people from other countries who are there too”, he explains. “And it’s also interesting to see that they translate content. For example, there’s a post that says that autism is caused by parasites. We see this in Spanish, in a group from Peru, and then we find the same text translated into Portuguese, with the same commas, with the same messages.”

Business model

In light of this, Cugler is preparing the first study covering data from across the continent, focusing precisely on misinformation and conspiracy theories involving autism spectrum disorder, in partnership with the National Association for the Inclusion of Autistic People. He mapped 150 supposed causes of the problem spread in these communities – from oil and plastics to Doritos – and 150 false cures promoted and sold.

“These people have actually turned misinformation into a business model”, he says. “They set up huge groups, sometimes with 20,000 or 30,000 members, and post content there every day to create panic. They’ll post things like ‘you have 550,000 worms in your intestines’ and then say: ‘but don’t worry. There is a deworming protocol to get these worms out of your intestines’. And in the next post the will be a link for the user to buy this protocol. They create the problem and sell the solution.”

The researcher reports that this type of content is very common in anti-vaccine groups and does not only involve so-called “alternative” medicines, but also includes e-books, online courses and other digital products.

Screenshot of messages on a Telegram channel offering a 'vaccine detox' with a substance used as industrial bleach
Image of messages on a Telegram channel offering a ‘vaccine detox’ with a substance used as industrial bleach

“These are communities that seem to have been set up just to sell, to monetize the anti-vaccine discourse“, he says. “In them, you often have the same image guiding the person to the problem, solution and purchase, acquisition. It is constant.”

Cugler points out that Telegram’s very design favors this business model, by recommending misinformation content and channels to those already on the network. In doing so, Telegram encourages users to take a journey through the service that takes them deeper and deeper into the Alice-hole of conspiracy theory communities there, in a practical demonstration that the best predictor of belief in a given conspiracy theory is already endorsing another conspiracy theory.

“What’s serious is that I’ve been crossing all categories of communities and there’s not one that doesn’t have a link to another, they all communicate with each other in some way”, he says. “I could solve a problem with an inappropriate medication and go to a New World Order group, which would then have a link to a group of historical revisionism and political radicalization. And this also shows the possible journey of this user, who sometimes can enter a community unwittingly because he’s outraged with the government, or has a legitimate doubt about vaccines, and ends up captured. He starts to think that there are reptilians dominating the world, and then if he takes chlorine dioxide he’ll protect himself from their nanobots, and in the end he’ll end up in a radicalization group.”

In his specific study of anti-vaccine conspiracy theories, he noted how the anti-vaccine narrative is often intertwined with larger conspiracy theories, suggesting that those who join anti-vaccine communities are quickly exposed to a larger web of misinformation and fear.

“The ideas propagated in anti-vaccine communities are not limited to health, but expand to theories of global domination, manipulation and apocalyptic crises produced by a supposed elite. This pattern highlights how anti-vaccine theories function as a gateway to a vast network of misinformation, where each narrative reinforces the others, creating a continuous cycle of radicalization”, he adds.

Cugler also describes in the study how certain communities act as opinion leaders or dissemination centres, where health misinformation is widely shared. This internal network reflects the creation of its own ecosystem, in which conspiracy narratives feed on each other, creating a vicious cycle of misinformation.

Screenshot of a Telegram channel conversation with another 'vaccine detox' negotiation, featuring a gif or image of Rick and Morty high-fiving
Telegram channel conversation with another ‘vaccine detox’ negotiation 

“This dynamic suggests that, once inside this network, it is difficult for followers to break away from these beliefs, as they are continually exposed to narratives that reinforce their distorted worldview, making the community a closed space of radicalization and resistance to information that is contrary to or based on scientific evidence”, he points out.

A clear sign of this detected by the study is the way in which the fraudulent study by former British doctor Andrew Wakefield linking vaccines and autism continues to come up in conversations as an argument against vaccination, despite having long since been retracted and removed from the scientific literature as being totally invalid.

“This persistence reflects the resilience of this conspiracy theory, which has been widely debunked by the scientific community but continues to be promoted by these communities as a hidden truth”, Cugler said. “The idea that vaccines cause autism serves as a focal point for different misinformation narratives, creating a common ground that connects health issues to broader issues of distrust of conventional medicine and authority.”

The intersection between health misinformation and esoteric narratives creates a highly influential and attractive network for new members. “By mixing global conspiracy theories with alternative beliefs”, Cugler explains, “these communities are able to create a disinformation network that is both complex and attractive, increasing its reach and the difficulty of dismantling these narratives”.

New level

The timescale of the data that Cugler obtained also allows us to observe how the “popularity” of conspiracy theories reached a new level with the COVID-19 pandemic, at least on Brazilian Telegram. His study reveals that anti-vaccine narratives experienced a 290% increase during the health crisis, with a growing interconnectivity with other conspiracy theories that were not limited to health themes, especially those of “global domination” such as Globalism and the New World Order.

“The number of messages, engagement, users, all of this has changed levels. We saw an increase during the pandemic, a peak and, when the pandemic was over, and a drop – but to a level much higher than before”, he reports. “And even when we look at specific terms, such as ‘chlorine dioxide’ or ‘deworming’, we see the same pattern. Brazil seems to be supporting a good part of the conspiracy theories focused on health systems, on quackery.”

A possible explanation for this is another phenomenon also observed in studies on beliefs in conspiracy theories: these ideas become part of the identity of their followers and their sense of belonging to groups, whether political-ideological or religious.

“There is an instrumentalization of faith to sell miraculous health solutions, but it is also very present, for example, in apocalypse and survivalist communities, which also monetize, but in a different way: they sell knife kits, military clothing kits. I saw a group even selling bunkers, teaching how to build a bunker on your land to be able to survive a supposed apocalypse”, says the researcher.

Regarding the link between conspiracy theories and political positioning, Cugler cites a study conducted by a former IBICT colleague as part of her doctoral thesis that indicates that the events of January 8, 2023 in Brasília, when protesters attacked the headquarters of the Three Powers in an attempt to trigger a coup d’état, could be predicted from conversations in radical groups on Telegram.

“It shows the step-by-step process of these communities, which go from conspiracy to some kind of ideological framework and then, suddenly, they are there invading Brasília, because they think this will help ‘liberate Brazil’ from the New World Order”, he says. “I only started extracting this data after the event, but imagine if there had been a structure beforehand? From the government itself, from the security agencies? There could even have been some kind of anticipation there.”

The Skeptic Podcast: Episode #011

The Skeptic Podcast
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The Skeptic Podcast: Episode #011

The Skeptic podcast, bringing you the best of the magazine’s expert analysis of pseudoscience, conspiracy theory and claims of the paranormal since its relaunch as online news source in September 2020. 

On this episode:

Subscribe to the show wherever you get your podcasts, or to support the show, take out a small voluntary donation at patreon.com/theskeptic.

Is Pope Leo XIV the true successor to the apostle Peter, Catholicism’s first Pope?

Gabriel Andrade
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Is Pope Leo XIV the true successor to the apostle Peter, Catholicism’s first Pope?

A new pope has been elected, marking a significant moment for the global Catholic community. Catholics believe that the pope is the “Vicar of Christ” – a title that signifies his role as Christ’s representative and supreme shepherd of all Christians on earth. This conviction is rooted in the Petrine theory, drawn from a passage in the gospel of Matthew 16:18–19, where Jesus tells Peter, “You are Peter, and on this rock I will build my church.”

According to this theory, the apostle Peter traveled to Rome and became its first bishop, establishing a unique role within the early Christian community. Because Peter was specifically chosen by Christ to lead the apostles and given a special authority, symbolized by Jesus naming him the “rock” upon which the Church would be built, Catholics believe that every subsequent bishop of Rome, or pope, inherits this spiritual leadership. Thus, each pope is seen as the successor to Peter, continuing his mission and serving as the Vicar of Christ on earth, with a divinely instituted authority to guide and unify the universal Church.

Many societies rely on foundational myths – narratives that help justify existing power structures and affirm the authority of those who rule. Rome itself was once bound together by the legendary tale of Romulus and Remus, twin brothers raised by a she-wolf, a story that provided a sense of destiny and legitimacy for the city’s rulers. Over time, as the old pagan narrative faded, it was replaced by a new myth centered on Peter and the authority of the papacy. Just as few today accept that a she-wolf literally nourished Rome’s founders, we should approach the newer Roman myth with similar skepticism, recognizing it as another narrative constructed to uphold the status quo and sanctify the power of its leaders.

We can admit that it is likely, though by no means certain, that Peter died in Rome. Early Christian tradition, supported by sources such as the First Letter of Clement – written around 96 CE – refers to Peter’s martyrdom and his departure “unto the place of glory due to him,” which many interpret as a reference to his death in Rome. Later Christian writers, including Tertullian and Origen, also attest to Peter’s crucifixion in Rome under Emperor Nero, though there is no definitive contemporary evidence.

Even acknowledging that Peter died in Rome, the idea that he served as its bishop is highly questionable. To begin with, the passage in Matthew 16:18 is regarded with suspicion by many scholars. It is highly probable that Jesus himself did not intend to found a church at all, since he and his earliest followers expected the imminent end of the world and the arrival of God’s kingdom. The idea that Jesus wanted to establish a lasting church organization only emerged later, as the apocalyptic expectation faded and the Christian movement adapted to new realities – an evolution reflected in the Gospel of Matthew, which was likely written about 50 years after Jesus’ death, at a time when the community was rethinking its mission in light of the delayed end times. The absence of this saying in the other Gospels, and its alignment with later ecclesiastical structures, suggests it may have been shaped to support emerging ideas about church leadership and Peter’s primacy.

Furthermore, while Peter was undoubtedly a leading figure among the apostles, he was not the undisputed head of the early Jesus movement. The New Testament consistently points to James, the brother of Jesus, as the primary leader in Jerusalem. Paul’s letters highlight James’s authority: in Galatians 2:9, he lists James first among the “pillars” of the church. When Peter miraculously escapes from prison, he instructs the believers to “tell James and the other brothers” (Acts 12:17), indicating deference to James’s leadership. During the crucial Jerusalem Council, it is James who presides, summarizes the debate, and issues the final judgment (Acts 15:13–21). Later, when Paul returns to Jerusalem, he reports directly to “James and all the elders” (Acts 21:18), further underscoring James’s central role. These passages, along with references to men “from James” influencing events in Antioch (Galatians 2:12), make clear that James – not Peter – was regarded as the chief authority in the early Jerusalem church and, by extension, the wider Jesus movement.

Moreover, there is no evidence that Peter was the bishop of Rome or that he founded the Roman church. The office of “bishop” as understood today did not exist in the mid-first century; early Christian communities were led by groups of elders or overseers rather than a single hierarchical figure. Paul’s authentic letters, particularly Romans, make no mention of Peter’s presence or leadership in Rome, even though Paul greets many individuals in the Roman church by name (Romans 16) but never mentions Peter. This silence is striking if Peter had held a prominent role there.

Some early Christian authors, notably Ignatius of Antioch and Irenaeus, contributed to the impression that Rome held a special status among Christian communities and often associated this prestige with Peter. Ignatius, writing in the early second century, addressed the Roman church with particular respect in his Epistle to the Romans, and Irenaeus, in the late second century, emphasized the apostolic succession of Rome as a way to defend orthodox teaching. However, this recognition of Rome’s prominence was by no means universal. Other important centers, such as Antioch and Alexandria, also claimed significant authority, and many Christian communities operated independently of Roman influence. The primacy attributed to Rome in these early writings reflected local circumstances and theological debates of the time, rather than an established, universally accepted doctrine of papal supremacy.

The Petrine idea supporting the primacy of the papacy actually took centuries to fully develop. It was not until the late fourth century, under Pope Damasus I (366–384 CE), that the famous verse in Matthew 16:18 was explicitly used to assert Rome’s supremacy over other churches. Damasus faced significant internal conflict, including a violent schism over his own election as pope, as well as growing rivalry among the major Christian centers of the empire, such as Constantinople and Alexandria. In this contentious environment, Damasus strategically invoked the authority of Peter, citing Matthew 16:18 to bolster his claim that the bishop of Rome was the legitimate successor to Peter and therefore held unique primacy in the Christian world. This marked a turning point, as earlier Christian leaders had not universally interpreted the Matthew passage as a mandate for Roman supremacy, and the doctrine only became a central pillar of papal authority in response to the political and ecclesiastical challenges of Damasus’ era.

It was Pope Leo I, known as Leo the Great, who truly enshrined the Petrine idea and the primacy of Rome in Christian doctrine. Leo’s pontificate (440–461 CE) marked a decisive turning point: he systematically developed the theological argument that the authority given to Peter by Christ in Matthew 16:18 was uniquely inherited by the bishops of Rome. This was powerfully demonstrated in his famous Tome, a letter sent to the Council of Chalcedon in 451, which articulated what became the orthodox position on Christ’s nature. The council not only accepted Leo’s theological position but also acclaimed, “Peter has spoken through Leo,” a phrase that vividly expressed the belief that the Roman bishop spoke with the authority of Peter himself.

Yet, it is important to note that although Leo was honored at Chalcedon, not all Christians accepted his claim to unique authority as Peter’s successor. As Eamon Duffy explains in his highly informative Saints and Sinners: A History of the Popes:

The bishops at Chalcedon… acknowledged the special dignity and honour of the apostolic see, but they did not therefore assume that whatever its bishop said must be true, and seemed to have believed that on this particular occasion Peter had spoken through Leo.

In fact, the same council rebuffed Leo’s expansive claims and granted Rome and Constantinople equal status, underscoring that the idea of Roman primacy was far from universally accepted in the Christian world at that time.

To this day, the Petrine theory remains a major source of division among Christians, as only Catholics accept the doctrine that the pope, as Peter’s successor, holds supreme authority over the universal Church. Most Protestant communities reject the Catholic interpretation of Matthew 16:18, arguing instead that the “rock” refers to Peter’s confession of faith or to Christ himself, not to Peter as an individual. The Eastern Orthodox Church also does not accept the Roman claim to universal primacy, recognizing instead only a primacy of honor for the bishop of Rome, not jurisdictional supremacy. As a result, the Catholic doctrine of papal primacy has never been universally recognized, and the rift it created continues to shape Christian divisions today.

We skeptics are unmoved by intricate theological disputes – debates over whether Christ has one or two natures, or whether God is one or three persons, strike us as fundamentally nonsensical. How could anyone possibly verify such metaphysical claims? Our concern is not with doctrines about supernatural entities, but with historical reality and the exposure of myths. But it is precisely for this reason that, in the case of the Petrine theory, we can indeed take a stance – one that aligns more closely with the Protestant and Orthodox rejection of papal supremacy.

When it comes to the Petrine theory, the facts simply do not support the Catholic narrative. There is no solid historical evidence that Peter was ever the bishop of Rome, nor that the papal office was established by him from the very beginning. While we may not care about theology, we do care about debunking unfounded legends, and the idea of an unbroken Petrine succession in Rome is one myth that demands to be challenged.

Cover image credit: INFOWeather1, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

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