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Are ‘gacha’ games and loot boxes merely gambling in disguise?

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Have you ever willingly paid for… nothing? Or at least, something completely useless? And no, I’m not talking about buyer’s regret – I’m talking about buying something that you know you would have absolutely no need for even at the time of purchase.

This may come as a shock, but millions of people worldwide do just that every day, albeit not through conventional means like gambling or lotteries. Instead, they’re drawn into a digital realm where the allure of virtual rewards sometimes outweighs the importance of making rational use of one’s finances – the digital world of “gacha” games.

What is gacha? The term “gacha” is derived from the Japanese word “Gashapon”, which is the name of a toy vending machine commonly found throughout Japan. These vending machines dispense a random toy or trinket encased in a small capsule, and “gacha” is an onomatopoeia of the sound made when cranking the toy dispense lever.

Two vertically stacked rows of 'Yujin' Gashapon machines in Hong Kong
Row of gashapon machines in Hong Kong. By Mk2010, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

These machines typically have a colourful poster on the front, advertising all the possible prizes to attract potential customers. But here’s the catch – you don’t get to choose which item to get, and none of the prizes are guaranteed to appear. This means that one may potentially buy dozens of capsules without ever getting their desired item. Gacha games refer to games that employ a similar mechanic where characters, equipment and other resources can be obtained by ‘pulling’ from a ‘banner’ showcasing all the possible rewards.

The introduction of gacha into games, with its elements of uncertainty and anticipation, has revolutionised the gaming industry. Games with zero up-front cost or subscription fees, also known as F2P (Free-to-Play) games, have become a norm. Developers and publishers can easily recoup a game’s development costs and create constant revenue streams by turning their games into lucrative platforms for players to shell out large amounts of money in a bid to obtain their desired item.

In fact, this business model has become so successful that it has resulted in a paradigm shift in the gaming industry, especially during the 2010s when gacha games started to gain prominence following the release of the first notable gacha game, “Dragon Collection”. This shift has not only reshaped player expectations but has also fuelled the rise of microtransactions and loot box systems in various gaming genres over the past decade.

Today, F2P games with gacha or loot box mechanics generate an estimated 117.7 billion US dollars a year, which is almost 30% of the entire global video games industry market cap, making them a dominant force in the gaming market.

With a clearer picture of what gacha games are, you may be wondering: “So what makes these games different from just… gambling?” While both are forms of entertainment, there are significant distinctions between the two. Casinos, for instance, are a long-standing industry with established regulations and practices. Studies have shown that most people only gamble for fun as opposed to having gambling addictions, and that recreational gamblers often have strict loss thresholds they are not willing to cross. Coupled with the fact that casino chips often display their real-world currency value, allowing gamblers to effectively keep track of their spending.

In contrast, gacha games operate within a relatively new and less regulated landscape. Some of the top-grossing gacha games feature immersive storytelling and compelling characters that deeply engage players on an emotional level. These narratives can create a sense of attachment and investment in the game world, driving players to spend more time and money in pursuit of their in-game goals.

For many players, gacha games offer more than just entertainment; they provide a form of escapism where they can assume different roles and experience a sense of achievement through in-game progression. The allure of escapism, where players can temporarily distance themselves from real-world stressors and immerse in fantastical adventures, further amplifies their engagement with the game.

The psychological rewards of overcoming challenges, unlocking new content, and building relationships with virtual characters can be deeply fulfilling, and these are just some of the tactics that gacha games will use to lead players into investing significant time and resources into their gaming experiences.

Being a gacha player myself, I know all too well the emotional roller coaster that accompanies gacha pulls. That said, I was eager to hear about how other gacha game players’ experiences differed from mine. To that end, I interviewed “Johnnie”, a third-year university student.

I first learned of Johnnie after hearing about the time he spent over S$2,000 on a single character in Genshin Impact, the highest-grossing gacha game of today developed by China-based game company miHoYo. This is an astronomical amount to spend on a video game for most people, which made me all the more interested in his perspective.

Johnnie’s introduction to miHoYo’s gaming universe began with Honkai Impact 3rd, where he experienced moderate success without significant financial investment. However, it was the allure of Genshin Impact’s expansive open-world and dynamic gameplay mechanics that truly captured Johnnie’s attention upon its release in late 2020.

“I didn’t have any particular goals going into the game, but there was an insane amount of hype surrounding Genshin Impact, which made me want to try it out,” Johnnie recalls. The promise of exploration and adventure beckoned him into the fantastical realm of Teyvat, where he quickly became engrossed in the game’s rich tapestry of quests, characters, and challenges.

Since day one, Johnnie’s journey into Genshin Impact’s gacha realm was marked by strategic investments and evolving priorities. Initially captivated by the game’s expansive world and immersive gameplay, he opted to enhance his experience through carefully chosen purchases.

A screenshot of the Genshin Impact game, featuring the player's character sat on a stump looking out on a green and mountainous landscape with trees dotted across it under a blue sky. The Traveler character's belongings lean against the stump behind them
‘The Traveler’ observes Teyvat from a treestump. Genshin Impact photo mode image from Nostre NZ, Flickr.

His first foray into spending involved acquiring the Welkin Moon, a monthly subscription offering a steady influx of Primogems, the currency used for gacha pulls. This decision was driven by the undeniable value proposition presented by the Welkin Moon, which provided a significant boost in resources compared to direct purchases of Genesis Crystals.

“The Welkin Moon offered so much more value compared to just buying Genesis Crystals,” Johnnie explains. “It was a no-brainer for me to invest in something that would enhance my gaming experience without breaking the bank.”

Johnnie’s strategic approach to spending meant that he abstained from directly purchasing Genesis Crystals for gacha pulls, and instead purchased Welkin Moons and monthly battle passes known as Gnostic Hymns. This continued until the addition of Raiden Shogun, one of the seven Gods that ruled over Teyvat, into the gacha. As the name implies, her design is based on Raiden Mei from Honkai Impact 3rd, which compelled Johnnie to pull for her.

“Raiden Mei was one of my favorite characters in Honkai Impact 3rd, so when I saw Raiden Shogun in Genshin Impact, I knew I had to have her,” Johnnie admits. “I really liked her character design, and I’m a fan of the character’s voice actress as well.”

The rush

On the day of the character’s implementation, Johnnie grapples with a mix of anticipation and apprehension while waiting for the game update to end, acutely aware of the potential financial implications of his actions. The prospect of overspending looms large, casting a shadow of doubt over his decision-making process. Despite his best efforts to rationalise and budget, the possibility of being extremely unlucky in his pulls is real and frightening.

“It’s kind of a mixed feeling, there’s definitely the excitement and anticipation of finally being able to pull for her, but then I also agonise over the idea of spending more than necessary and having to eat into the rest of my savings.”

During the pull itself, a surge of adrenaline courses through Johnnie’s veins as comets streak across the screen, each shard laden with promise and possibility. With each passing moment, the tension mounts, heightening his anticipation as he awaits the outcome. When one of the comets finally turns orange, signifying that the item is of the highest rarity in the game, the dopamine-fueled rush that accompanies this revelation is almost palpable, serving as a moment of triumph amidst the uncertainty of chance.

In the aftermath of a pull, Johnnie experiences a complex array of emotions ranging from jubilation to disappointment, depending on the outcome. Securing the coveted character elicits a sense of triumph and validation. Conversely, facing repeated setbacks or failed attempts can evoke feelings of frustration and disillusionment, prompting introspection and reassessment of his approach. Yet, regardless of the outcome, each pull serves as a testament to the powerful allure of gacha mechanics, weaving a tapestry of emotions that reflects the highs and lows of virtual pursuit.

For Johnnie, the decision to spend over S$2,000 on a single character wasn’t just a financial transaction; it was a testament of his dedication to the game and the emotional bond he formed with its virtual inhabitants. As he reflects on his gacha journey, Johnnie’s story serves as a poignant reminder of the multifaceted motivations that drive players to invest in their gaming experiences, whether financial or emotional.

Johnnie’s experience underscores the immersive nature of gacha games, where players become emotionally invested in the stories and characters they encounter. When asked about his motivations for spending money on gacha pulls in Genshin Impact, Johnnie’s response echoed a sentiment shared by many players: a desire to obtain unique items and enhance their gaming experience. His decision-making process when considering a gacha pull reflects the complex interplay between personal preferences, gameplay mechanics, and financial considerations. While factors like character playability and futureproofing influence his choices, Johnnie’s unwavering devotion to certain characters, like Raiden Mei, transcends mere gameplay mechanics.

The interview with Johnnie highlights the psychological rewards inherent in gacha gaming, where the pursuit of virtual treasures intertwines with a deeper longing for connection and fulfilment. For Johnnie, each gacha pull is not just a gamble; it’s a moment of anticipation, excitement, and, occasionally, disappointment.

When asked if he would pay a fixed price to get the character instead, Johnnie promptly refused. “The feeling of getting a desired character through my own luck is something I still very much enjoy.” Perhaps for the truly hardcore gacha players, or ‘whales’, the thrill of the gamble outweighs the certainty of purchase. It’s testament to the unique appeal of gacha mechanics, where chance holds an allure all its own.

However, the line between immersive entertainment and exploitative monetisation practices is a thin one. In the realm of gacha games, distinguishing between healthy engagement and excessive involvement can become difficult, especially amongst those with spending impulses or lack self-control.

Before I spoke with Johnnie, he was on a hiatus from gacha games in general to focus more on his coursework and other hobbies. Unlike Johnnie, in some players the continuous cycle of anticipation, reward, and reinforcement built into gacha mechanics can trigger addictive behaviours and compulsive spending patterns, especially among vulnerable individuals, such as children and adolescents. As players become increasingly invested in the game’s narrative and progression systems, they may find themselves more susceptible to the persuasive tactics employed by developers to encourage in-game purchases.

Safety and regulation

In some regions, governments have recognized the potential harm posed by gacha games and have taken steps to address these concerns. For instance, in Japan, regulations against certain gacha mechanics were implemented as early as 2012. The Consumer Affairs Agency deemed “complete gacha” illegal due to its exploitative nature, where players were required to obtain a full set of rewards to progress in the game (eg getting one of every single item from a Gashapon machine). This model, once popular in social games, was outlawed for violating laws against unjustifiable premiums and misleading representation.

Similarly, in 2016, China passed legislation requiring games with loot boxes to disclose the probability of receiving specific rewards, aiming to enhance fairness and transparency. Furthermore, China imposed restrictions on the number of loot boxes that can be purchased in a day, aiming to mitigate excessive spending and potential gambling-related harms.

The Netherlands and Belgium have also taken decisive action against loot boxes, with the former prohibiting certain types of loot boxes deemed to have market value, while the latter declared loot boxes to be a form of illegal gambling. These regulatory efforts underscore the growing recognition of the need to protect consumers, particularly vulnerable individuals, from the potential risks associated with gacha games and loot box mechanics.

Ultimately, gacha games are a form of entertainment, drawing players into immersive virtual worlds, but often with a more sinister side. However, concerns persist regarding addictive tendencies and excessive spending, prompting regulatory responses from governments worldwide. The ongoing debate surrounding the classification of gacha mechanics as gambling showcases the need for continued awareness and discussion within the gaming community. As the industry evolves, striking a balance between engaging gameplay and player well-being remains paramount.

In the end, amidst the glitz and glamour of gacha games, the true randomness lies in the unseen algorithms orchestrating each pull. Behind the flashy screens, from the moment the small loading icon appears after the player spends their resources, the fate of their pull is sealed, determined by the intricate mechanics hidden within the game’s code.

Each spin becomes a dance with destiny in the silent realm of algorithms, where the emotions of the players are at the whims of machines.

References

JD Vance is right – for anti-intellectuals like him, the professors are the enemy

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JD Vance, the ‘running mate’ of Donald Trump, recently proclaimed: “The professors are the enemy. Unsurprisingly, this remark alarmed me; I had not been previously aware of being an enemy of the people. Vance stressed that this was a quote by Richard Nixon made some 40 or 50 years ago. I looked up Nixon’s quote and found that the original is apparently a little different:

Never forget, the press is the enemy. The establishment is the enemy. The professors are the enemy. The professors are the enemy. Write that on a blackboard a hundred times and never forget it.

So, why does Vance quote Nixon, who arguably is not one of the most honest men in the history of US politics? Why does he and Nixon insist that the professors are the enemy? Why was this puzzling quote followed by plenty of applause from his audience?

The answer could be that it is a populist theme that touches a nerve with right-wing audiences. But what does the sentence actually mean?

Until recently on Vance’s campaign website, he explained that “hundreds of billions of American tax dollars” get sent to universities that “teach that America is an evil, racist nation”. These universities “then train teachers who bring that indoctrination into our elementary and high schools”. Vance doesn’t want public funds to go to institutions that teach “critical race theory or radical gender ideology”. He rather wants them to deliver “an honest, patriotic account of American history”.

Vance and Nixon are not the only politicians to make claims of an anti-intellectualism nature. In 2016, the UK conservative Michael Gove refused to name any economist backing Britain’s exit from the European Union, saying that “people in this country have had enough of experts”.

According to Wikipedia, anti-intellectualism is hostility to and mistrust of intellect, intellectuals, and intellectualism, commonly expressed as deprecation of education and philosophy and the dismissal of art, literature, history, and science as impractical, politically motivated, and even contemptible human pursuits. Anti-intellectuals may present themselves and be perceived as champions of common folk – populists against political and academic elitism – and tend to see educated people as a status class that dominates political discourse and higher education while being detached from the concerns of ordinary people. 

Totalitarian governments have, in the past, manipulated and applied anti-intellectualism to repress political dissent. During the Spanish Civil War and the following dictatorship of General Francisco Franco, the reactionary repression of the White Terror (1936–1945) was notably anti-intellectual, with most of the 200,000 civilians killed being the Spanish intelligentsia, the politically active teachers and academics, artists and writers of the deposed Second Spanish Republic. During the Cambodian Genocide, the totalitarian regime of Cambodia led by Pol Pot nearly destroyed its entire educated population.

Fascist movements are notoriously anti-intellectual and anti-science. Adolf Hitler apparently stated that he regretted that his regime still had some need for its “intellectual classes,” otherwise, “one day we could, I don’t know, exterminate them or something”. Joseph Goebbels was more explicit saying that:

There was no point in seeking to convert the intellectuals. For intellectuals would never be converted and would anyway always yield to the stronger, and this will always be the man in the street. Arguments must therefore be crude, clear and forcible, and appeal to emotions and instincts, not the intellect. Truth was unimportant and entirely subordinate to tactics and psychology.

And the infamous ‘bon mot’, “when I hear the word culture, I reach for my gun”, is attributed to several of the top Nazis of the Third Reich.

Here, I suspect, we might have a reason why a certain type of politician dislikes intellectuals and feels that the professors are the enemy. Professors do science, science is about finding the truth, and the truth is something that politicians like JD Vance must fear like a pest; it might disclose their agenda as being fascist.

It therefore seems to me that claims like “the professors are the enemy”, are arguments of politicians who have good reason to fear the truth, appealing to voters who are unable to understand the danger posed by those they wish to elect.

A search for meming: fighting the mind-virus virus

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It’s hard to escape the meme of memetics. When Richard Dawkins first introduced the concept of a “unit of culture” that might, like actual genes, undergo both replication and mutation it’s likely that he didn’t foresee that the very meme of the meme would mutate into something wildly different when thrown into the fecund Petri dish of the global cultural milieu. I believe it is safe to assume that the majority of people who speak of memes do so in reference to its more debased meaning of “images and ideas spread on social media,” and these do fit neatly within the larger framework of the original concept.

Memetics has a varied reputation across academic fields. Writers – including Dawkins – have expanded on the idea, since its initial description only comprised a small part of the larger work in which it was born, The Selfish Gene. Memes, as Dawkins originally described them, represented a non-biological replicator to which Darwinian pressures might be applied. They would be another kind of playground to examine evolutionary concepts, and perhaps they weren’t just a concept but could actually influence behaviour.

From that first introduction in 1976, the idea has spread and changed. Other writers picked up on the concept and developed it further. Susan Blackmore and Richard Brodie have written on the topic, lauding it as a way to understand how ideas spread and change. The philosopher Daniel Dennett wrote of memes as well. Recall that in the early 2000s there was a highly popular movement called “New Atheism” and a group of particular authors including Dawkins and Dennett became known as the four-horsemen of Atheism.

Dawkins wrote further on memes, and it is in a volume titled Dennett and His Critics: Demystifying Mind that he lays out the metaphorical case that I find troubling. His influential 1991 essay, Viruses of the Mind, opens the collection of essays, and compares religion unfavourably to both biological and computer viruses. The essay has been widely republished, shared, and debated, and really cemented the idea of a “mind virus” in the public discourse. Despite its utility and cosy simplicity, this metaphor is so wrong as to be destructive to any scientific potential memetics might hold for aspiring researchers into idea propagation.

I can certainly see why the idea has such appeal. Who among us does not have some friend or family member who picked up some notion or belief and changed their life’s focus or drastically changed their thinking afterwards? The nephew who suddenly becomes an evangelical preacher, the neighbour who seemingly overnight becomes a ranting advocate for the latest political conspiracy, the work colleague who can’t stop talking about their passion for the latest diet fad – these all fit this pattern of a person whose mind has been overcome by some compelling idea. Surely we have all seen radical behavioural changes in people we thought we knew that seem attributable to their encountering a particularly sticky idea or concept.

The metaphor of viral infection is a very tempting way to explain such rapid (and often seemingly detrimental) change, but ideas don’t simply hop into a host and take over. Something much more complex and interesting is going on and I hope to show that the simplistic metaphor of mind-virus is both inaccurate and pernicious.

Recently I wrote a paper for inclusion in a volume called Religion, Culture, and the Monstrous on the topic of how monster flaps are formed and spread. I spent a lot of time thinking and reading on the topic of memetics, for surely at some level the spread of stories of monsters is just another meme?

How do brains really process memes?

What truly happens when we are exposed to stories – or memes? Brain science is far from a full consensus for what consciousness is, and what brains do, but increasingly evidence supporting a non-dualistic explanation for brain functions seems at hand. I’m sure Dawkins doesn’t want to be described as a dualist, but his essay seems to be built on a very magical conception of how brains work. Metaphors like the “mind-virus” are effective because they fit into a framework of ideas we already understand, but poetical aptness is not ground truth.

A cartoon virus dressed in a Breton striped top with black sleeves, black trousers, white gloves and black beret.
Image by Rocel H. – commissioned by the author

Here’s a scenario to consider. Someone posts a meme online. Let’s say this is an image of a virus dressed as Marcel Marceau, a “mime virus” if you will.

Someone posts this to their social media timeline and the viewers in their network have many choices with what to do with this meme.

  • The most common action, we might deduce, would be for the viewer to look at it but not take any action. This is the kind of meme that is sort of “dead on arrival.”
  • Sometimes a meme will have more resonance with viewers and they will want to share the meme – in its unchanged form – by sharing it or liking it. Liking can increase the chance the algorithm will spread the meme to more viewers, but the viewer here needn’t be aware of that.
  • Another portion of viewers will add their own comments when sharing the meme – a form of mutation, in the memetic sense, but leaving the image unchanged.
  • Finally, some viewers will be inspired to take the original meme and either alter it or build their own fresh variants of the original. Each of these mutants, in turn, face the same selective pressures and might hit on some combination of images and concepts that really gets people fired up to share. We commonly call that “going viral.”

I’m convinced that the popularity of the phrase “going viral” has more to do with the common understanding that viruses undergo exponential growth than with any direct ties with Dawkins’ mind-virus concept, but regardless of how much careful consideration is applied to its use, the ubiquity of the phrase across the Internet inevitably promotes faith in the “mind-virus” metaphor as a literal truth. As I was preparing this essay, famously memeable billionaire Elon Musk claimed that the “woke mind virus” killed his child. (His child is not dead, and – as I hope to continue to demonstrate in this essay – whatever “wokeness” is, it’s not a virus of the mind.)

A history of mind-viruses

I couldn’t find many uses of the phrase “mind-virus” prior to the 1990s. Dawkins’ Virus of the Mind essay was published in 1993 as part of a collection of essays by multiple authors in the volume Dennett and his Critics: Demystifying Mind. He originally presented the paper at a conference in 1991, but had been making the “religion is a virus” claim in newspapers as early as 1990. Dawkins’ essay does explicitly discuss how computer viruses replicate, but it is clear from his tone that his intent in calling religion a “virus” is to be disparaging. He finishes out the essay by trying to explain that science, despite also being a memetic framework that involves copying and mutation, is not a virus because Dawkins sees it as a beneficent enterprise.

That approach has continued to be used in public discourse. Virality continues to be used as a general purpose term to express rapid spread of an idea, but mind-virus seems to be reserved as an epithet. Elon Musk in particular has used his X platform to talk about the “woke mind-virus” and the “extinctionist mind-virus“. He’s not alone. 

The connotation is in the context. If the scientific method itself can “go viral” and spread culturally, then people who oppose the memeplex of science might well characterise it as a virus. Dawkins refutes the idea that science could be a mind-virus by dint of its efficacy and self-evident virtues (“testability, evidential support, precision, quantifiability, consistency, intersubjectivity, repeatability, universality, progressiveness, independence of cultural milieu…”), but his litany of laudibility reeks of scientism. Science is a human endeavour and thus inevitably flawed in all the ways you would expect from any system designed by deluxe monkeys. Paradigmatic science should always be pushing towards evidence-based truths, but it has to be exercised through the human substrate and we’re inherently flawed executioners of higher values.

Mind-viruses aren’t just a Dawkins idea. Like memes, the mind-virus idea has left the lab and is mutating in the wild. They make an appearance in fiction, most notably in Neil Stephenson’s dystopian novel Snow Crash which hit bookshelves in 1992. In that book, a fictional mind-virus rewrites the software of the language-processing portion of a person’s brain and makes them extraordinarily susceptible to manipulation. Effectively, Stephenson’s fictional mind-virus does what Dawkins suggests religion can do in real life. Snow Crash is likely another vector for the promotion of the concept of a mind-virus because the book was very popular and influential among the Sci-Fi and Technology set.

Exactly when the idea of virality achieved linguistic ubiquity might be best indicated by when it starts showing up in trendy business books. One of the earliest examples I found was the 2001 book Unleashing the Ideavirus, which featured an introduction, appropriately enough, by Malcolm Gladwell. Gladwell’s 2000 book The Tipping Point explicitly states in the introduction that “ideas and products and messages and behaviors spread like viruses do”. Gladwell wants readers to think of the spread of ideas as being an epidemiological process. He argues that ideas spread slowly and then suddenly explode in growth when a tipping point is reached.

Mathematicians might see this as a poetic way to describe exponential growth. The parable of the “inventor of chess” and his gambit of requesting payment in the form of ever-doubling cereal grains on each square of a board as reward for his clever game design makes the same point about the power of exponents, but is much older. Gladwell’s epidemiology metaphor was very memetically effective. Discussing its effectiveness and reach within the context of an essay about how memes function risks a messy prose recursion, but suffice it to say that his contribution to the conceptual spread of virality is noteworthy.

If memes are not mind-viruses what are they?

Brain research has made big steps towards understanding how brains help us understand the world we’re experiencing. The Idea of the Brain: The Past and Future of Neuroscience is an excellent primer on the past few hundred years of the effort to decode what brains actually do when we think. That history includes many of the popular (but wrong) metaphors about our brains as steam engines, computers, telegraphy networks, and other popular technologies. Our brains are none of those things, though tempting parallels come along from time to time.

There are still many people who believe that our brains are just a physical substrate for some kind of ghostly intangible “something” that ideas are made of. Dualism has been a debate in brain science for as long as there has been “brain science.” We don’t even have a common definition of consciousness, so it’s impossible to get a united view of how it might function in a brain-based model of cognition. However, the past century of brain research seems to be converging on the idea that whatever the “mind” is, it’s happening within the structures of the human brain. This is where the “virus of the mind” metaphor becomes really problematic.

Despite there still being much uncertainty in the scientific effort to unravel the hows of brain function and consciousness, one particular book has led me to some tentative conclusions about a possible neurological structure underlying beliefs. Jeff Hawkins, whose commercial work in information technology led to the Palm Pilot, wrote On Intelligence back in 2004. He spends much time explaining the physical structure of how brains build predictive models eventually posits what he calls the memory-prediction framework. I won’t do you the disservice of trying to cogently explain in a paragraph or two what he spends an entire book laying out, but the big take-away is that he believes that much of what the neocortex does is to try and predict what is going to happen next by means of building connection structures that form a feedback network.

Even if it turned out that Hawkins’ theory is wrong in the specifics, it made me think about the kinds of abstract modelling we do beyond simple motor control activities like catching a ball or driving a car. When one initially takes up such activities it is very difficult and takes a lot of attention; but over time, we build something in our brains that we recognise as expertise or learning. What struck me during this research was that we’re perfectly aware that it takes time to learn a new skill, but there’s a broad cultural assumption that beliefs can be instantly changed with a good argument.

But what if beliefs are just another kind of predictive model built on the slow accretion of connected neural cells? That would imply that belief, like any mental competency, requires the development of a neural structure to hold it. It might seem odd to think of beliefs as the same sort of cognitive structure as learning to type or how to bake bread or perform math calculations, but beliefs do become models we test reality against. The person who believes in the plate-tectonics model of earth movement and the person who believes earthquakes are divine punishment from an angry deity both have a model of the world that explains real world experiences. Scientific models change as required by evidence and religious models tend to resist change through special pleading when reality doesn’t match expectations – but both are models of the way the world works. And as models they exist both in abstractions captured in writing and words, but also as neural correlates in the minds of those who have accepted them.

It takes time to learn these models. They don’t change quickly unless there is already a ready framework of supportive beliefs in place. The simple reality is that adult minds are not generally susceptible to ideas the way that the mind-virus explanation implies. With the caveat that I’m talking of adult minds, let’s get back to my argument.

If memes are not viruses, and we’re not susceptible to quick takeover by invasive memes, then what is the value of the “virus of the mind” meme itself other than as a pejorative against memes we don’t like? If science is pushing towards a materialist model of what the brain is doing and is able to explain learning through structures within the brain, then treating ideas as though they were free-floating viruses that can infect us against our will is a kind of magical thinking.

In On Intelligence, Hawkins did not say that beliefs are just another predictive model. That was my own conclusion after reading back before 2014. However, I was excited to see that in his newest book, A Thousand Brains, he explicitly speaks of belief as just another kind of brain model. Beliefs, just like other predictive models, are built from networks of cortical columns within the neo-cortex. In chapter 12, which deals with false beliefs, Hawkins speaks to ideas (memes) that have a high degree of virality. He outlines through several examples (flat earth, vaccine denial, and religion) how an idea can be designed to be easily reproduced with a high degree of fidelity even if it is factually incorrect, and he explicitly invokes Dawkins creation of memes. However, it is also clear that Hawkins does not believe ideas are mind viruses. His work extensively describes the process of building new models and they must be integrated with existing frameworks of beliefs.

Ideas that do seem to pop with a high degree of virality are of special interest to many skeptics and remain quite mysterious. From fads to mass psychogenic illness to yawning, it’s clear that some ideas do spread rapidly across a population but this is uncommon, unpredictable, and usually not the sort of long term behavioural change that a change in belief would have on an individual. The very ephemeral nature of these exceptional phenomena is baked into our word “fad.”

Of course the irony is not lost on me that the introduction to A Thousand Brains is written by Richard Dawkins. That he could read Hawkins and not see how it undermines his mind-virus metaphor would be shocking if it weren’t the sort of thing that all of us do every day when we ignore contradictory evidence that would make us question our hard-won and comfortable predictive model structures (beliefs). However, Dawkins’ memes fit well within Hawkins’ framework and the last few chapters of the book speak much to the preservation of memes across time in a way that echoes The Selfish Gene. Thankfully, we don’t have to accept ideas (or beliefs) uncritically. That’s core to the skeptic’s favourite tool: critical thinking. I’m willing to accept the metaphorical virality of memes without accepting the existence of invasive mind-viruses. 

Our bodies invest a lot of work in constructing these neural models, and I am inferring that anything costly to create probably has built-in tools to defend it. Could our species’ vast number of biases be the result of our bodies trying to conserve the expenditure that was used to craft our network of models? Perhaps.

It’s a complex topic that I’m deeply interested in, but one that mostly lies outside the path of my professional career. Yet, I think that if the above is correct, it suggests what we all know on some deeper level: It takes time to change a belief.

If the predictive model idea is correct and also my deduction that beliefs are built from physical neural structures, and if we’re biologically incentivised to protect these structures, then the metaphor of a mind-virus that can sweep in and rewrite us into doing entirely new behaviours is just wrong.

In Dawkins’ essay, he claims that faith-based thinking is like a “bad” virus but that science is not a virus in the same way that “good” computer programs aren’t viruses. But both faith and science are learned clusters of ideas and behaviours. The distinction in labelling is derived from a subjective evaluation of their merits, not from a fundamental difference in their substrate. If memetics is right, they’re both memeplexes and subject to the same Darwinian selective pressures.

But, like the word meme, the mind-virus idea has itself spread and mutated and been widely absorbed with new and different meanings. I find the mind-virus metaphor troubling in ways beyond its inaccuracy. But it does suggest that not only do we want to protect our own extant brain models from outside conflicting ones, but that we guard them so closely we want to ensure our wider culture also is protected. “I don’t like that idea, so for the safety of everyone in my tribe we need to suppress it,” is a conversation played out millions of times a day on social media.

The mind-virus approach to religion implies that because faiths and mythology are not built out of rational evidence-based frameworks, they’re pernicious and worthless and dangerous. Or that everyone involved is a duped host of a parasitic memeplex. And — thanks to our brain’s tendency to prefer confirmatory evidence that makes us feel good — it’s easy for non-theists to think of examples where terrible things have happened because of organised religions, and to disregard the times people have been harmed by science.

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Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

Why do some ideas spread so widely? It’s safe to say that nobody – so far – knows the answer to this question. If they did, then advertising would be far more efficacious than merely ubiquitous. Finding an idea that everyone simply has to spread is the Holy Grail of a multi-billion dollar industry and if they haven’t got it down to a replicable science, perhaps this is another indicator that ideas aren’t “viruses.”

Molecular memetics

So what metaphors do work more accurately here, but without the cultural baggage inherent in sexual reproduction or disease-based analogies? I’ve turned to the field of chemistry for my answer.

In chemistry a few concepts may be helpful for discussing how ideas spread. First, I think some ideas tend to be elemental rather than molecular. Such ideas are like the noble gasses. They are clearly recognisable and don’t mutate much when they spread. Simple ideas that maintain this elemental purity are popular for brand identity, core religious principles, mathematical concepts, and so forth.

But some ideas really seem to spark a creative storm of mixing and remixing. These ideas have what I’d call a high memetic valence. In chemistry a high valence means that an atom has a high combinatorial power due to its abundance of free electrons. In memes, a high memetic-valence means that an idea has a high degree of combinatorial power. I can’t say with confidence why some ideas have high memetic-valence, but clearly some ideas really spark a creative reaction in large portions of the population, while others do not.

Memes can exist extra corpus in many forms, but when a meme enters our minds it has to fit within these neural structures to be processed. Again, I’m no dualist, so my point here is that when we learn things, they’re happening in a biological framework and are not loosey-goosey floating around in the ether.

The process — the biological process — of incorporating memes into our brain is far more complex than our simplistic metaphors. While viruses do capture the exponential concept of idea-spread, they do so at the expense of the fascinating internal struggle that must be happening as we all try to integrate such ideas into brains already fortified with predictive models.

The Estes method is an update to the ghost hunter’s Spirit Box, with all the same flaws

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Ghost hunters often have the best intentions when it comes to the methods they use to investigate alleged hauntings. However, their attempts to introduce a scientific methodology into proceedings usually fail to reach the mark. This outcome, I believe, is mainly because the ghost-hunting subculture is rife with issues of confirmation bias. In simpler terms, ghost hunters are too often led by their desire to find evidence that ghosts exist, rather than taking a more open-minded approach. They may not be sure how to introduce scientific controls or rigour into their ghost-hunting activities, and may even be unaware of the need for such controls. As a result, ghost hunters reinvent the wheel in an attempt to be scientific, only to find it’s a wheel that never worked in the first place, and now they’ve made it even worse.

The latest trend sweeping through ghost-hunting groups is an excellent example of this issue. A modern twist on traditional spirit communication, the Estes Method (invented by American ghost tour operators), offers a new take on the Spirit Box, which ghost hunters have used to attempt communication with ghosts for decades. The Spirit Box rapidly sweeps through radio frequencies, creating a stream of white noise and audio snippets from different broadcast sources. Advocates claim that spirits can manipulate these audio fragments to form words or sentences to communicate with the living. The method is simple; the ghost hunter asks a question, and the ghost uses the audio from the Spirit Box to answer them.

In reality, the messages of ghostly origin result from listener bias, suggestion, and audio illusions. Sentences from the broadcasts are often incomplete, meaning that the phonemes (human speech sounds) can be misheard and, more importantly, misinterpreted as relevant to whatever ghost a ghost hunter is trying to communicate with. Prior knowledge of an alleged haunting can influence ghost hunters to interpret audio as direct answers to questions asked when this is unlikely to be the case. Choppy audio with gaps in words and sentences can cause one word to merge into another, resulting in something which sounds familiar, or the ghost hunter fills in the gaps (often without even realising they’re doing so).

The Estes Method builds on this spirit communication method and tries to scientifically improve it by adding noise-isolating headphones and blindfolds to ensure the person listening to the audio (referred to as the “Receiver”) can’t hear the questions being asked or read the lips of the person asking them. The Receiver listens for messages from ghosts through the Spirit Box in response to questions asked by the “Operator,” another group member. By channelling the audio through headphones so only one person hears it, the Estes Method tries to overcome the influence that listener bias has on Spirit Box sessions, as the Receiver does not hear the questions asked.

However, these controls are less effective than ghost hunters intend. The audio through the headphones is still open to the Receiver’s interpretation, influenced by their knowledge of the very ghost stories that tempted the ghost hunters to visit a haunting location in the first place. Additionally, the Operator (the person asking questions) also knows about the haunting, influencing their questions and their interpretation of the answers given. Though Operators are not supposed to tailor questions based on received answers, they inevitably do because of the biased nature of their search for evidence of ghosts.

When examined in the broader context, it’s easy to see that the Estes Method falls foul of the same unscientific behaviours typical of ghost hunters. For example, there are instances of the Estes Method used in ghost-hunting television shows or online videos where a question gets asked, and an “answer” is given that makes no sense, or the Receiver says something not in response to a question. The ghost hunters will likely ignore these out-of-context statements, with only the positive responses shared as evidence. This practice of selectively presenting data that supports your hypothesis while ignoring data that contradicts it is an unethical practice known as cherry-picking, which results in biased and often misleading research outcomes. It is also a habit that has plagued ghost hunters for as long as they’ve been around.

The biggest flaw of the Estes Method is the lack of scientific evidence supporting the claim that spirits can communicate by manipulating radio frequencies. As commendable as it is to see ghost hunters trying to add some form of control to the controversial Spirit Box methodology, it is essential to acknowledge that the Spirit Box itself is a redevelopment of an older ghost-hunting practice known as Electronic Voice Phenomena (EVP) where ghost hunters use audio recording devices in haunted locations, believing they may capture supposed ghostly voices or messages during the recording process.

Ghost hunters play back these recordings to identify strange sounds or voices. Often, recordings occur while the ghost hunter asks questions, pausing between questions to allow ghosts to respond. Electronic spirit communication methods such as EVP, the Spirit Box, and the new kid on the block—the Estes Method—heavily rely on subjective interpretation and are susceptible to psychological phenomena like pareidolia and confirmation bias, which undermine the credibility and reliability of these so-called scientific approaches to ghost hunting.

Research has consistently shown that paranormal beliefs are often inversely related to science literacy. That is, the higher the levels of paranormal belief a person reports, the lower their science literacy rates. Science literacy and critical thinking skills are mutually reinforcing, empowering people to question assumptions while analysing evidence objectively. No matter how hard ghost hunters try to become more scientific in their work, if their activities aim to find proof of ghosts, their attempts will often fall short of scientific rigour. Ultimately, this means that no amount of gimmicky techniques or reinventing traditional methods will change the quality and reliability of ghost-hunting conclusions unless ghost hunters develop a genuinely open-minded approach to their research.

Med Beds: the futuristic health devices promising to cure you with undefined energy

As someone with a chronic health condition, I’m prone to having periodic flare-ups. The nature of the flare-up can vary, but often it means that I’m in a little extra pain, struggling with extra fatigue and need a lot more sleep, or generally just feeling a bit off.

Fortunately, I tend not to have people in my life who take this as a sign to offer me unsolicited health advice. Just as fortunately, I also have people in my life who know I love to dig into other people’s unsolicited health advice – which is why a friend of mine forwarded me a link that outlined all the incredible benefits of Tesla BioHealing Med Beds.

For those not familiar with these remarkable devices, they are apparently capable of all manner of wondrous healing effects, including:

* Recharging the energetic state of all cells of the body directly allowing the cells to activate their own self-repair mechanisms.
* Increasing the millivolt levels of the cells from as little as 15 millivolts up to the optimal healthy range of 70-90 millivolts.
* Increasing Adenosine triphosphate (ATP) levels naturally. ATP is known as the energy carrying molecule of the cell found in all forms of life.
* Increasing cellular repair rates while decreasing and even ceasing cellular destruction rates
* Facilitating DNA synthesis and the natural production of stem cells
* Strengthening the cells’ resistance to harmful environmental factors such as man-made electromagnetic frequencies and radiation.
* Harmonizing the hemispheres of the brain and acting as a natural anti-depressant.
* Facilitating a natural sense of calm and improving quality of sleep.
* Improving mental clarity and cognitive function.
* Normalizing blood pressure levels and blood sugar levels.
* Increasing circulation and decreasing inflammation thus facilitating the distribution of oxygen and providing a great deal of pain relief.
* Boosting libido and enhancing sexual health including improving fertility.
* Improving cell wall permeability thus enhancing nutritional intake as well as the body’s natural detoxification processes.
* Strengthening the immune system and protecting DNA from damage by increasing the energy of the hydrogen bonds that hold DNA together.
* Energizes the body naturally by increasing cellular energy directly, thus reducing fatigue while increasing strength and vitality.

Despite all of these amazing effects, every single page of the site promoting these devices was clear to state in at least two separate places:

Tesla BioHealing does not provide any medical advice. Our products, FDA-registered Tesla BioHealing OTC (Over-The-Counter) Medical Devices, and services are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease or medical condition. Please consult your own healthcare provider if you have any medical issues.

So, what is the Tesla BioHealing medical device and how does it work? According to Tesla BioHealing’s brochure:

This FDA Registered OTC medical device generates a field of pure Biophoton Life Force Energy that the cells of your body can use at will and as needed to promote self-repair.

They claim that this Biophoton Life Force Energy is actually produced and used by all living things – so we can make our own… but sadly (and somehow unsurprisingly), that’s not enough. Once our life force is reduced, due to age or sickness, then we’re told we need to apply life force therapeutically in a concentrated dose. Which is interesting advice from a company that keeps telling us they’re not providing medical advice, and that’s selling us a device they say can’t be used to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease or medical condition.

The company I found sells two devices and one service. The first device is a budget version, costing just $599 dollars per device… though they recommend we buy one to two units if we have mild conditions, and two to four if our conditions are moderate. We’ll come back to what we need for severe conditions because, yes, they offer advice for serious conditions.

Already, that means spending up to $2359 (or around £2000) for four units, which look like little canisters – they’re around 3.5 inches wide and 4 inches tall, and each weighs one kilogram. They are also all completely opaque, so we cannot see what’s inside. The idea, according to the company, is that these small devices generate life force energy that your body can use. They release the energy continuously for three years, at which point they need replacing (how convenient).

To operate the device, you simply place it within three feet of the affected area, and then stay there for at least eight hours a day. Hey presto, all your ailments will be “self-repair[ed] naturally, non-invasively, and effectively.” That is a direct quote from the company. As is, you’ll recall, “FDA-registered Tesla BioHealing OTC (Over-The-Counter) Medical Devices, and services are not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease or medical condition.”

Alternatively, you could fork out for the Med Bed generator. This also looks like a canister, but it’s much, much bigger. According to the website, one Med Bed generator is equivalent to 100 Bio Healers, so of course it makes sense that you can only buy them in pairs, for $19,999 (a little over £16,000). They weigh around 12kg and are 8.25 inches wide and tall.

The final thing Tesla BioHealing offers is a service – they have 8 Med Bed centres dotted across the US where you can pay $150 for a BioWell scan, and then $120 to spend one hour in one of their Med Beds, or $300 to stay overnight. One person who took up this service is investigative journalist Mike Wendling, for BBC Trending. He described his experience:

In my room, I felt nothing more than curiosity and a slight sense of unease as I gazed out the window at a mostly empty car park. The Tesla Med bed canisters were sealed in wooden boxes and a bedside table.

At the end of his session, he was given a second BioWell scan, which showed that his life force energy was already increasing – so while he felt nothing at all, the company’s own scanner offered proof that their service had been a total success.

While Wendling noted that all of the med bed canisters were blocked from view during the time he was there, the BBC Trending team did find some customers online who managed to open their canister to take a look inside.

We came across a TikTok video where an upset punter appears to have opened up a canister, only to find a concrete-like substance.

This isn’t merely a story about how people with ill health are persuaded to spend tens of thousands of dollars on useless devices to help with conditions that are hard to treat, especially in a country where healthcare also costs tens of thousands of dollars (it is worth grimly noting how the website is littered with invitations to set up finance options in order to afford these costly devices). There’s actually more to the med bed story.

The med bed lore

Med beds are not unique to Tesla BioHealing, they’re trading off a name that is well established in conspiracy theory communities. One Facebook post from 2020 says that med beds are here, and “… Here is a description of what med beds can do. They exist. And sooner than later, they will be available for all”. The accompanying text is a description taken from a site called Blissful Visions in 2018, and reads:

…There are three (3) types of Med Beds: (1) Holographic Med Beds; (2) Regenerative Med Beds which regenerates tissue and body parts, that’s powered by a different source; (3) Re-atomization Med Beds that in about two-and-half to three minutes will regenerate the whole human body, head to toe. What does this advanced technology mean for an 80-year old woman? She could be 30-years old again in less than three (3) minutes. Fifty years pealed off her life. Now, she can have children again. She could have a whole new family if she wants. It looks like to this writer that the Med Bed technology is a perpetual fountain of youth.

The Med Bed looks at the body and corrects imperfections. The technology has been around for quite some time. It’s not something out of the clear blue sky. It’s just been kept hidden from the human race for a very long time.

The technology of the Med Beds is not from planet Earth. It is not human-created technology. It is a technology that has been given to humanity by off-world ET’s. A Med Bed is based on tachyon particle energy and plasma (plasmatic) energy. The soil, the atmosphere, the water, everything is plasma energy, everything in the universe is plasma energy, it’s just a different form through vibrational frequency…

So, we’re told, these amazing alien medical beds exist on Earth, and should be available to us. But when will we get access to them? According to conspiracy theory documenters The Q Origins Project on Twitter, in 2021:

Med beds are, basically, magical devices that can heal any illness or injury. The Q Team is supposedly going to release them to the public after the Storm.

As the account points out, it seems an electoral mis-step by Donald Trump not to have released his magic curative devices ahead of the election, and then ride the wave of goodwill back into the White House.

The belief that Donald Trump had access to med beds was so routine among QAnon believers that one supporter even wrote him an open letter in 2021, saying:

On a personal level, my wife is struggling physically. She has an autoimmune disease that is greatly and increasingly causing her more pain and suffering as the weeks drag on… She could use a MED BED. And so could two of our children who have taken the vaccine. They think I am a nut for believing in all this. And how many millions more across the country need a MED BED? My family is struggling, and so is our country.

According to adherents, med bed technology does more than just heal – Daily Beast journalist Kelly Weill encountered one Dallas-based QAnon group that “falsely believes that John F. Kennedy is still alive and youthful, and attributes his remarkable longevity to the curative powers of med beds.”

Weill also covered Romana Didulo, the self-proclaimed ‘Queen of the World’, whose sovereign citizen ideas and QAnon beliefs sit alongside claims that med beds are right around the corner, and that they “will be made available for FREE to all Canadians” after her revolution.

This is yet another example of the damage done by conspiracism; supporters of people like Romana Didulo or Donald Trump genuinely believe that miraculous medical cures are soon to be made available, to save themselves or their loved ones from deeply harmful conditions, and their distrust in conventional medicine grows with the claims that these cures are being cynically withheld from the population.

You might be forgiven for thinking the two types of med beds I’ve discussed here are two very different things. In a way, you’d be right. The conspiracy theorist med beds are far more magical in their claims than the likes of Tesla BioHealing, and the other companies trading off the name. But, knowingly or unknowingly, those companies are still taking advantage of conspiratorial beliefs, and encouraging spending large sums of money looking for cures that don’t exist.

Meanwhile Trump and Didulo and QAnon are selling an idea – the idea that they are on your side. That they will do everything they can to give you the cure, or the financial solutions or the legal support that will turn your life around… as long as you offer them your unwavering support.

Overly simplistic headlines muddy the water around placebo effects and mislead the public

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Science communication is often about relating complex ideas in a clear and concise way. Unfortunately, the discourse around the placebo effect is anything but. The term ‘placebo effect’ is often used in casual conversation, popular media, and even academia as if it represents a single, well-understood phenomenon. In reality, ‘the’ placebo effect is a convoluted mess of unrelated effects that confound clinical trials.

For example, the National Institutes of Health in the US says the placebo effect works by ‘turning on the body’s natural mechanisms for helping us feel better.’ This statement is a gross oversimplification. Some placebo responses may be due to triggering the release of dopamine or endorphins, but not every placebo response can be chalked up to these mechanisms.

WebMD posits that ‘the placebo effect is due to a person’s expectations’. Again, this is not universally true. Beliefs and expectations can influence what patients report, but this does not account for all placebo effects.

The problem is that we use the same term, ‘the placebo effect’ to describe a wide array of phenomena, when the reality is that there is no singular effect. What we have instead is a morass of non-specific, inconsistent effects that confound clinical trials so perniciously they are often mistaken for clinical effects in their own right. They vary enormously depending on the context, and can include regression to the mean, experimenter bias, parallel interventions, classical conditioning, and more.

It’s like a magic trick. A good magician will have many ways to achieve the same effect. Something performed by sleight of hand in one show might be a stooge in another, or a camera trick or rigged prop in another. To the audience it all looks like the same trick, so we naively assume the trick is always performed the same way.

So when headlines appear claiming ‘We may finally know how the placebo effect relieves pain’ (New Scientist, 24 July 2024), we have good reason to be skeptical. There is no singular placebo effect, and no singular mechanism by which it modifies pain. Conditioning, bias, and mood can all influence reported pain to varying extents, and all are part of the placebo response. At best this discovery, whatever it is, may explain some parts of some placebo effects, but can we really say, ‘we finally know’?

What happened in the study

This particular headline was in reference to a recent study published in Nature titled ‘Neural Circuit Basis of Placebo Pain Relief’. The researchers divided twenty mice into two groups: a Test Group and a Control Group. The Test Group mice were placed into an apparatus consisting of two chambers, with distinct visual clues for the mice within each chamber. Over the course of three days, the mice were permitted to move between the two chambers as desired.

A white plastic thermometer with red alcohol indicator liquid shows 50+ degrees Celcius or 120+ Farenheit
A thermometer that maxes out at 50 degrees Celsius. Image by Györgyfi, CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons

After three days, the researchers raised the temperature in one of the two chambers from 30°C to 48°C, which would have caused the mice some discomfort. They did this by heating the floor in the chamber, so the mice would suddenly have found the hot floor painful to walk on. This prompted nocifensive (nervous responses protecting against injury) indications of pain from the mice, such as licking their paws, jumping suddenly, or rearing up. The mice quickly fled to the second chamber, which remained at 30°C.

This was repeated for a further three days. The temperature in one chamber (always the same one) was increased to an uncomfortable level, so the mice fled to the other chamber. The researchers explain that the mice began to associate the second chamber with pain relief, as indicated by a reduction in nocifensive behaviours when in that chamber.

Meanwhile, the Control Group mice were left to roam both chambers without any temperature changes for all six days.

Finally, on the seventh day, the researchers set the temperature in both chambers to 48°C, making both chambers uncomfortable to be in. What they observed was that the mice from the Test Group fled to what had been the cooler chamber before, despite there being no temperature difference anymore. Mice in the Control Group showed no preference for which chamber they were in, and showed more nocifensive behaviours than the Test Group mice. The Test Group mice appeared to experience pain relief in the second chamber, even when it was just as uncomfortable as the first.

In a further test, the researchers administered naloxone, an opioid blocker, to a further set of twenty mice, before putting them through the same protocol. In this experiment, while the Test Group mice still fled to the second chamber on the seventh day, they did not exhibit fewer nocifensive behaviours. This strongly suggests that the pain relief observed in the previous experiment was the result of the release of endorphins. Endorphins that, in the second experiment, are prevented from working by the naloxone.

What it did(n’t) tell us

While this study is fascinating, it is far from a definitive explanation of the placebo effect, or even how placebo effects mediate pain. It is a clear demonstration of classical, or Pavlovian, conditioning. Classical conditioning probably does account for some of the placebo effects seen in some studies but many placebo effects, even for pain, have nothing at all to do with endorphins, naloxone, or conditioning.

The researchers also performed a slew of other experiments to identify neural pathways that we previously had not considered to be part of the endogenous pain relief mechanisms, and speculate that stimulating those pathways directly could induce endogenous pain relief (though I would add that a single shot of morphine will offer more pain relief than endorphins are ever likely to manage alone). One test confined the conditioned mice to a single chamber and observed that, in this case, their nocifensive behaviours were the same in both chambers, suggesting that perhaps the conditioned endorphin release was triggered by the pain itself rather than which chamber the mice were in.

Either way, headlines claiming ‘researchers explain how the placebo effect works’ are not only reductive but imply a singular mechanism where none exists. Much of the public confusion surrounding the placebo effect is rooted in this persistent oversimplification, which glosses over what is a complex set of phenomena. 

The conditioning observed in these mice is a specific mechanism that might contribute to some placebo responses, particularly those involving learned associations. However, it is just one part of a much larger, more intricate picture that includes other effects like regression to the mean, reporting biases, parallel interventions, and so on.

Using a single term to describe all these distinct processes under one umbrella suggests a uniformity and simplicity that does not exist, and it muddies the waters of scientific communication. While this study is valuable, it should be recognised as one part of a much larger puzzle, not the definitive explanation of the placebo effect.

Racism is a real phenomenon, but that doesn’t mean that the idea of “biological race” is real

This story was originally written in Portuguese, and published to the website of Jornal O Globo, Brazil. It appears here with permission.

There is a well-established scientific consensus that the division of the human species into races makes no biological sense. “Race”, when we talk about Homo sapiens, is a social phenomenon – and one with very real social effects. We know, however, that many consensuses that are obvious to the scientific community are not always easy to convey.

Just look at the difficulty of explaining consensuses such as human-caused global warming and evolution. Perhaps the unreality of biological races is an even more complicated case – after all, people are culturally conditioned to take some differences in individual appearance as markers of “race.” But these markers are completely arbitrary; biologically, talking about the “white” (or black) race makes as much sense as referring to the “bald” (or hairy) race.

It doesn’t help, of course, when major universities try to use people’s appearance to decide whether or not they suffer from racism, misappropriating terms originated in biology, such as “phenotype.”

To make it perfectly clear how absurd the notion of “biological races” in humanity actually is, a group of researchers from the USA decided to use as an example a species in which talking about races does indeed make biological sense: dogs.

In a scientific article, the authors begin by showing that 27% of the genetic differences between dogs can be attributed to races. In humans, only 3-4% of genetic differences can be attributed to different populations of origin. Furthermore, in humans, the greatest genetic variation occurs within populations, and not between different populations; two people with the same skin tone from any African country probably have more DNA variations between them than if they were compared to people from another continent. And these differences are found in only 0.1% of the genome: we humans are 99.9% identical in DNA.

The opposite occurs in dogs. Breeds considered pure have very little internal genetic variation, but there are significant differences between breeds. In other words, dogs of the same breed are very similar to each other.

The authors also explain the difference between the pressures generated by natural selection in humans, and the artificial selection to which dogs have been subjected. In humans, no population has ever undergone complete genetic isolation. And even when selective pressures such as UV light incidence favoured different skin colors, or warmer or colder regions selected different body shapes, these selected characteristics are usually polygenic (involving many genes) and determined by different genes in different cases.

In other words, the same skin tone (or the same physiological characteristic, such as lactose intolerance) can be determined by different genes in different groups. The same characteristic, different genetic origins.

In dogs, most physical characteristics, such as color and height, are determined by a few genes, almost all known, and from the same origin. For example, the same mutant gene causes hairlessness in three different breeds, and can be traced back to one ancestor. There are only nine genes for coat pattern in dogs, five specifically for color. In humans, the authors cite more than 50 genes that influence skin pigmentation in the African continent alone.

This happens mainly because artificial selection allows the breeder to completely isolate one breed from another, preventing them from breeding “outside” the desired population. The breeder has total control over the “matrices”, those few animals that can produce offspring, keeping the breed pure. Some dogs have had more than 2,500 puppies. In humans, to this day, this radical isolation has never happened, as much as some fanatical racists have toyed with the idea. We are all mongrels, and that’s a good thing.

The ‘Cryptoterrestrial Hypothesis’ that wants us to believe aliens have always been among us

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Extra-terrestrial beings may be living underground or in a base inside the Moon, according to a new Harvard Study”, reads the headline from a tabloid website that I had never heard of, but a similar headline from the American Mirror also pointed to a “Harvard Study” about the same subject. Well, probably-AI-written clickbait article, you almost had my attention, but then guerrilla skeptic Susan Gerbic posted a link about the same subject, so now I’m curious.

The first thing I want to share about the subject is that there is a difference between a “Harvard Study” and a study by people who have some kind of affiliation with Harvard University. The former is a study either run or funded by the university. The latter is not a “Harvard Study” any more than we might consider Texas Senator Ted Cruz a Harvard lawyer. Sure, he graduated from the school, but he’s not employed by them or endorsed by them.

The difference is important, because the latter trades on the respect of the former. We call something a Harvard Experiment (or I’ve seen the same thing happen with Oxford) so that people think “Oooh, a Harvard experiment” – if even they think that… But this isn’t a Harvard study, it’s a research paper. And, like the former distinction, this distinction is also important.

I’m a philosophy academic so I don’t generally write studies; I write research papers. The impression that “study” gives is that there exists some physical artifact or biological entity – some concrete thing that was looked at. A research paper is a survey of the previously written work that draws a conclusion. I’m being a bit glib, but there’s a lot to unpack here and we’ve not even gotten to the paper yet. These are all false impressions that the headlines is designed to generate, so let’s find the actual paper.

The paper itself appears in the Journal of Philosophy and Cosmology, a peer-reviewed academic journal dealing with the intersection of Philosophy and Cosmology. Nothing seems wrong or suspect here. This isn’t a pay-to-play journal, or some AI-generated journal for the specific purpose of fooling people. In fact, the bland title is a good indicator. Academic journals with the most boring titles are often the best regarded. A journal about the physical world, “Nature”, a journal about medicine, “The New England Journal of Medicine” (as that is where both Harvard and Yale are located); the Lancet is an outlier but that is because its original purpose was to cut out (with a lancet or scalpel) medical malpractice, charlatans, and quackery.

Everything about this paper seems legitimate, except for the content of the paper itself. Right away I will dispense with the false claim in the headline from above. The paper is not arguing that that a secret race of beings is living on the moon or in caves underneath us. It is, however, claiming that we should take the possibility of such a claim seriously. They argue, ostensibly, that “in a spirit of epistemic humility and openness” we ought not to dismiss the explanation out of hand. The context of this paper is the popularity that UAPs enjoyed last summer.

This paper was written to buttress the possibility that maybe the UAPs are not coming from above, but from below… or to the side.

The Cryptoterrestrial Hypothesis

The Cryptoterrestrial Hypothesis (CTH) seeks to accommodate the existence of UAPs as originating from a non-human intelligence, while at the same time trying to argue away those pesky problems that extraterrestrials pose. The paper points out, rightly, in one of its broken clock moments, that the CTH does not have “to appeal to interstellar space travel – an extraordinary technological feat for any species – to account for UAP.”

I would further add that a UAP, if they’re real craft and not odd anomalies, is unique in that there exists zero trace of the craft (radiation, exhaust, impact on the surrounding environment) once the UAP has left the blurry image of the recording. CTH does not get around this problem, but it does solve the travel issue.

The paper is a testament to the informal fallacy of argument from ignorance. This is the fallacy that makes a conclusion based on the lack of evidence otherwise. The best examples are those that claim aliens have been captured and are interred at the US military base known as Area 51. Since we don’t know what is there, the conclusion must be that aliens are.

The paper wants to claim a veneer of epistemic honesty, but it does so under false pretenses. The problem is the central claim it wishes us to consider – that there exists a sentient intelligence that has been living undetected among (or under) us. The paper’s claimed point is not that this possibility is true, but that it is possible that it could be true. This is where the title of this article comes from; they want us to accept that there exists the potential for the suggestion that this hypothesis is true. This is a dodgy claim because we don’t need extraordinary evidence to accept a possibility, but we do need some evidence.

There are some concessions that the authors make a few times where they admit that even they think some of this stuff is too crazy to accept, but, you never know… I doubt the sincerity of these concessions, and I think this is merely a ploy to mitigate our incredulity at what they are saying. They place the possibility of the CTH hypothesis being true at 10%, which they confess is an increase from 1% before last year.

The problem with this percentage is that we are given no documentation for the increase. Statisticians (or people who understand how statistics work) should be demanding the dataset. Even I, who cannot do maths with more than one letter in it, would like to take a look at it as well. I may not be able to compute advanced maths, but I do know that in an academic paper, if you have a number indicating a probability that sometimes is true and that number goes up, you should be able to demonstrate why. Instead, we are left with the same kind of statistical analysis an android provides about navigating an asteroid field. The number is just there to look impressive.

Our main problem, as skeptics, should be that such an incredible claim ought to have some kind of evidence in favour of it. Yes, I’ve butchered the Carl Sagan quote but I did so because this paper is allegedly not claiming that the CTH is true but that we should take seriously that idea that it could be.

Yet, what we are left with is a very long-winded exercise in the special pleading fallacy. This fallacy is committed when an argument asks you to overlook certain restrictions on an earlier premise so that the conclusion can be considered true. Here we are being asked to believe that a non-human intelligence lives either among us or underneath us without having first established that such an intelligence exists in the first place.

Unsheathing Occam’s Razor

Let’s examine the CTH for what it is: an untenable claim on its own. The paper wants us to accept the claim that it is possible an underground race/species (the difference matters here) has been living among/below (again the difference matters) us and has escaped detection. Ok, fine, but we need some kind of evidence for it.

The authors lean on a few different archaeological finds for proof. None of these are salient to the CTH’s possibility. Their chief piece of evidence is the settlement of Gobekli Tepe in modern Turkey. The site, recognised by UNESCO, is famous for being a human settlement much earlier than was previously thought. The site is estimated to have been settled around 9500 BCE, just after the end of the last ice age. Does this prove that the CTH is true? No. Does it prove that the CTH is worthy of legitimate inquiry? Again, no. What it proves is that humans were settling down in an era that predates the Ussher chronology. It also shows us that there are swathes of human history that we are ignorant of – but I don’t think that is news to anyone with a curiosity about the history of human civilisation.

Their other evidence doesn’t fare any better. They point out a discovery in Kolombo Falls, Zambia, where “researchers in 2019 discovered an example of wood craftsmanship and technology – involving two pieces of wood fashioned to ‘interlock’ together…”, which they claim is dated to 500,000 years ago. This would place the wood objects before the emergence of Homo Sapiens. If we accept this discovery, it just means that we(?) have had wooden tools for far longer than known. It does not argue, or even imply, that a different species of intelligence currently exists on this planet.

Occam’s Razor posits that between two explanations, the one with the fewest assumptions is superior. There are, of course, different interpretations of this, and I should stress that it is not a hard rule. Sometimes those assumptions pan out, but the assumptions need to be “discharged” from being assumptions.

What our authors are claiming is that, because Gobekli Tepe and these wooden tools exist, we should take seriously the notion that an advanced species lives undetected among us. Their assumption is that the people in Zambia, who were not Homo Sapiens, evolved along a different branch line, were able to create flying objects that fool our best methods of detection, and then continue to remain undetected among (or below) us.

The other alternative is that the few anomalous UAP encounters are just that: anomalous unknown events. This is just another argument from ignorance, not knowing what it is does not allow us to make any claim we want. If they’re going to posit a different evolutionary line, why don’t they just claim that dinosaurs survived and evolved to fly the UAPs. Well, about that…

The Troodon Conspiracy

My biggest issue with the paper, of many, is that they pull a bait and switch a bunch of times. The largest comes toward the end of the writing (the paper is 42 pages long but the writing only pushes 17 pages) when we begin a very strange and detailed divergence into considering whether or not David Icke has a point: “Even so, it is intriguing that ‘reptilians’ have long been associated with the UAP topic, with speculation that some such species does indeed represent an NHI that may be responsible for some UAP.”

They make the assumption but then later rest their entire contention on that assumption. David Icke just picked lizard people for his Non-Human Intelligence because they’re sufficiently different to us, and they reference people’s latent fear of snakes. Spiders would have been more universal, but it’s more difficult to fit spiders inside skin suits. I’ve never considered that Icke would be correct because his theory requires way too much, but here we have an academic journal publication that wants us to consider that Icke’s lizards could be real. And if you’re wondering, do they really mean lizard people? Well, yes, they do.

The contention that they want us to consider as plausible is an alternative evolutionary branch where dinosaurs evolved into sentient creatures alongside and completely hidden from their primate counterparts. The article does offer some support in the form of the dinosauroid hypothesis from Russell and Sequin (1982), as well as the possibility that the “Silurian hypothesis” is true from a later paper by Scmidt and Frank (2019).

The 1982 paper has eluded me, but the 2019 paper has not. That paper argues that finding evidence of an industrial society in the geologic record would be difficult… it does not argue that a race of underground sword-wielding Victorian detectives exists (that was a fun sentence to write).

While Troodons are the smartest dinosaurs (here’s one explaining how a time-traveling train works) there are several devastating issues with this claim. The Russell and Sequin “dinosauroid” was criticised heavily from the start. The form of the creature was criticised as being too human. While the Troodon could have evolved into a sentient creature, making the Super Mario Bros. movie essentially a documentary, it is unlikely to have gone unnoticed in a competitive environment during the ice ages.

I’m going to skip the section on how magical beings might be responsible for UAP phenomenon, because I could easily write another few thousand words on that and I have to limit myself. I’ll only say that, while I don’t think it’s Troodons, at least Troodons really existed, unlike faeries. I’m also ignoring the stuff about the Moon, because that makes even less sense to the CTH.

The paper’s point is to argue that we should take seriously the CTH as a possible explanation for UAP. As someone who researches conspiracy theories, I read a lot of alternative explanations for things. The CTH as an explanation for UAP is an alternative explanation’s alternative explanation.

The CTH suffers because it rests too much on special pleading. The dinosauroid alternative, for example, requires us to assent to the idea that not only could a 2.5m-long 25kg dinosaur survive and then evolve into a sentient creature, but also that such a creature could create a society with an infrastructure that could create highly advanced flying vehicles. Further, that all of this would remain undetected by the world at large.

What’s needed is evidence that begins a journey toward the possibility of the CTH. The authors do nothing of the sort.